Nation heading for total uncertainty

If you have a conflict between the two parties who are like a wolf and lamb, you must have a third party in the room, just to make sure that one does not have the other for dinner, goes the saying of Charles Dickens. Had Dickens foresee the sad and mad political conflicts unknown in his time as we have in Bangladesh, he would have added: if the conflicting parties are arrogant and adamant, refuse to listen to the third party, throw a lion in the room that would make good both for his dinner.

The current conflict in Bangladesh is about the way of holding the election. Hasina is for holding the polls under the incumbent government headed by her. The 18-party opposition led by BNP chief Begum Khaleda Zia wants it should be held under a non-party government. Declining the opposition demand and defying public opinion, the government is preparing for holding the election on January 5 even without participation of opposition parties. This has escalated the conflict.

The current spell of series of blockades called by the opposition has left dozens of people killed. Road and rail communication disrupted. Shopping malls and business centers remained closed. Ports paralyzed. Annual examinations in educational institutions were postponed repeatedly left the guardians worrying. Political pundits and analysts have been forecasting in rambling TV talk shows that the volatile political situation now gripped the divisional cities, district and upazila towns will intensify when the ruling and opposition parties come face to face in the streets of the capital Dhaka in the days ahead causing panic.

This scribe holds the view that the election plan was prepared outside the border. India has openly claimed that it has the best ever relations with Bangladesh under the rule of Sheikh Hasina. Never in the past, not even during the post-independence Awami League government headed by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman had Delhi enjoyed such warm relationship with Bangladesh. It is known to all that Sheikh Saheb had refused the offer of Mrs Indira Gandhi to fly in an Indian plane after he was set free from Pakistani jail and flown to London to return home. From the very beginning he was suspicious of New Delhi’s role. At one stage he had prohibited visit of cabinet ministers to India without his prior permission.

Indian bitterness against Bangladesh was clearly manifested during the rule of Ziaur Rahman. Chakmas of Chittagong Hill Tracts were lured to cross over to Indian state of Tripura, trained and armed to wage war against Bangladesh. India, however, had honeymoon for sometime during the rule of HM Ershad whose coming to power overthrowing BNP government which was paved by Delhi and welcomed Awami League. These are all galling truth. It is no wonder that Delhi would like Sheikh Hasina to return to power for maintaining such warm relationship and secure the much needed transit facility.

Apparently, Delhi has a contingent plan in Bangladesh in the event the government cannot hold the election in the face of serious disturbances. Islamic parties and groups antagonized by government orchestrated ‘gano jagoran mancha’ that maligned Islam and its Prophet, would join the anti-government agitation in a big way. That would give India to paint Bangladesh in a bad light. Indian propaganda machine will raise the bogey of Islamic fundamentalism and Bangladesh as harbinger of terrorism in an attempt to draw attention of the western powers.

Reports quoting Delhi’s foreign office mandarins have already indicated this. “More than 100 Islamic fundamentalist groups funded by external sources along with Jamaat were gaining strength ahead of election in Bangladesh. They were preparing for terrorist activities not only in Bangladesh but export terrorism across the border. Rise of Islamic fundamentalists in Bangladesh will adversely affect the peace in the region,” said a report from Delhi published by a local daily (Bangladesh Protidin) on Tuesday.

It is significant that Indian foreign secretary Sujata Singh dashed to Dhaka on Wednesday when the political turmoil is getting bad to worse. Unconfirmed reports say that a top-notch RAW operative is already in Dhaka. When Nepal was preparing for election held on November 19, Kathmandu weekly Telegraph reported heavy presence of RAW and described as ‘India’s notorious intelligence agency involved in creating unrest in the neighbouring countries.’

No doubt Hasina rested hope on her external friends for the success of the election plan. All attempts by civil society activists and diplomats in Dhaka so far taken for a negotiated settlement of the core issue to avoid bloodshed have failed. It is suspected that vested quarter has subverted the negotiations.

Source: Weekly Holiday