1. World developments

• Ukraine says Russia has already violated a newly announced energy ceasefire. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine halted refinery attacks, but Russia subsequently struck a thermal-power plant in Kharkiv. Kyiv learned of the U.S.-brokered arrangement through the media and fears it requires unilateral Ukrainian concessions. reuters.com

  Why it matters: The alleged violation raises doubts about whether the ceasefire can survive and deepens the rupture between Kyiv and Washington over the U.S.–Russia diesel agreement.

• The European Union added nearly 1,600 Russian sanctions listings. More than half reportedly target companies and individuals connected to ballistic-missile production and Russia’s wider military-industrial network. reuters.com

  Why it matters: Europe is moving in the opposite direction from Washington, which recently relaxed restrictions on Russian diesel, exposing a widening split in Western sanctions policy.

• AI investment is helping keep global growth near 3%, according to the IMF. The fund estimates that AI could raise growth by as much as one percentage point in advanced Asian economies and 0.8 percentage points in emerging Asia. It also warns that approximately 40% of jobs could be substantially changed or eliminated. reuters.com

  Why it matters: AI spending is partly offsetting the global energy shock, but its gains may be concentrated in technology-producing economies and accompanied by severe employment disruption.

2. South Asia

• Pakistan has imposed emergency rule in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and suspended its PTI-led provincial government. The federal government said the administration had failed to confront Islamist militancy. The move comes after PTI supporters began marching toward Islamabad to demand Imran Khan’s release. investing.com

  Why it matters: Removing an elected provincial government sharply escalates Pakistan’s political confrontation and risks unrest in a province already facing serious militant violence.

• Pakistan expects economic growth above 4% this fiscal year. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said Islamabad plans to privatize five or six state entities, potentially raising more than $1 billion, despite elevated oil prices. reuters.com

  Why it matters: Privatization could strengthen government finances, but political upheaval and costly imported energy may deter investors or reduce attainable sale prices.

• India’s rupee jumped 1% following new central-bank measures. The Reserve Bank of India redirected oil companies’ dollar demand, tightened derivatives rules and apparently sold dollars through state banks. The currency reached approximately 95.74 per dollar but remains down 6.5% in 2026. reuters.com

  Why it matters: The intervention provides immediate currency relief, although falling reserves and India’s large oil-import bill leave the rupee vulnerable.

3. Maritime news

• At least 139 migrants died in a boat disaster off Djibouti. The International Organization for Migration said approximately 84 people remain missing after a vessel carrying 305 people capsized near Obock while sailing toward Yemen. At least 15 children were among the dead. reuters.com

  Why it matters: The disaster highlights the growing humanitarian traffic on the dangerous Eastern Route between the Horn of Africa and conflict-stricken Yemen.

• Commercial traffic through Hormuz nearly stopped over the weekend. Kpler recorded five commodity vessels on Saturday and none on Sunday, compared with 31 the previous weekend. An empty VLCC reportedly crossed with its AIS switched off, while an Indian-flagged gas carrier used the Iranian-controlled route. gulf-times.com

  Why it matters: The collapse in transits shows that diplomatic proposals have not restored shipowner, insurer or crew confidence.

• A drone attack on the tanker Petro Dolphin left two Indian seafarers missing. Another tanker, Valthera, was also reportedly damaged in the Strait of Hormuz. India condemned the continuing attacks, while casualty and damage assessments remained incomplete. apnews.com

  Why it matters: Repeated crew casualties strengthen demands for protected transit arrangements and may further reduce the availability of seafarers willing to enter the Gulf.

• Tanker freight costs have risen dramatically. Reported VLCC rates from the Persian Gulf to China increased from approximately $230,000 to nearly $1 million per day, while secondhand tanker prices reached about $240 million. Hormuz oil flows averaged roughly 10.5 million barrels per day last week—38% below prewar levels. wsj.com

  Why it matters: Higher freight and vessel costs will feed into refinery economics and consumer fuel prices even if crude production remains available.