Mahmudur Rahman

The people of Bangladesh enjoyed a dress rehearsal for the next general election under a fascist regime yesterday. There were Awami League candidates and a few clowns like Ukil Abdus Sattar in the day-long circus. The event was the by-election in six parliamentary seats recently vacated by BNP. The only silver line in the whole drama is that the voters made it a flop show by completely ignoring it. That is the maximum they can do under a ruthless, murderous government. Hasina’s slipper-licker election commission dutifully declared the result of the futile exercise according to the instruction of the master. As per the screenplay, Ukil was announced victorious.

Incidentally, a day before, Washington declared sanctions against the election commission of neighboring Myanmar. How the Bangladesh election commission is better than the Myanmar Junta stooges is anyone’s guess. But, the US has its own geopolitical calculation. They know the special art to look the other way according to the situation, as we have seen on numerous occasions in the cases of West-supported dictators. Examples are so many that the names of those demons are not important.

Before proceeding further, a short and quick recap of the 2014 and 2018 elections. In 2014, Sheikh Hasina forced a single-party election down the throat of the voters and the United States-led, a so-called international community with the help of New Delhi. About the election, BBC reported, “Clashes and boycott mar Bangladesh election.” Washington decided to look the other way after some initial muted protest. Their Ambassador to Bangladesh Dan Mozena was publicly insulted both by Bangladesh and Indian governments for his protests. But, a very powerful Indian lobby in the US capital shut the naysayers down. After all, geopolitical interest is much above than personal dignity of a single diplomat.

In 2018, the undeclared Monarch of Bangladesh lured BNP to join in the election under the leadership of multiple old and proven Indian agents. The current crop of policymakers of Shaheed Zia’s party is possibly expected to neutralize New Delhi by accepting the leadership of her ‘B’ or ‘C’ team. In return, the Modi-Sheikh Hasina duo gifted Bangladeshis with a ‘Midnight Election’ entertainment. This time, Beijing also joined in the clapping. The shock was so severe for BNP that it took more than three years to recover and restart the party engine. Referring to the 2018 election, Japanese Ambassador to Bangladesh Ito Naoki commented just before completing his tenure on 14 November 2022, that he never heard about ‘previous night ballot box stuffing’ in any other country before. He also expressed hope that such practice would not be repeated in the next election.

From a limited understanding of Bangladesh politics, this editor can foresee four scenarios in the next election:

1. Lure BNP: The government will send an emissary to BNP leadership with a better offer than in 2018 and apologize for the inability to keep past commitment due to the overzealousness of the local administration. If necessary, New Delhi will join in the negotiation with the guarantee that all commitments will be honored in letter and spirit this time. Many political analysts in Bangladesh appear to buy this. However, I still believe that BNP would not fall into the trap of 2018.
2. Divide BNP: Attempt to divide BNP has been going on since Bangladesh Army surrendered to the Indian interest in 2007. We need to give credit to Begum Khaleda Zia and Tarique Rahman that they have succeeded to keep the party united in spite of vicious persecution and intolerable personal losses. However, there have never been shortages of turncoats at the party. With the help of the Judiciary and election commission, Sheikh Hasina may try to create a splinter BNP and award a party symbol to it before the next general election. Shamsul Huda-Brig. Shakhawat-Sahul Hussain election commission of 2008 under the Moin-Fakhruddin 1/11 government tried this option and failed. Hasina is more powerful and cunning than Moin-Fakhruddin.
3. Ukil Abdus Sattar Model: Buy about 50 Abdus Sattar-like characters and field them as independent candidates with the full support of the administration and the ruling party. There exist considerable numbers of disgruntled mid and senior leaders in BNP waiting in the wing for lucrative offers. After the bizarre and shameless execution of the Ukil model in the Brahmanbaria by-election, advisors of Sheikh Hasina must be licking their lips. They will soon start to prepare the list of such probable candidates to try to give some legitimacy to the third election circus in a row. This group can then form a separate block in the parliament to contest with Jatiya Party for main opposition status.
4. Field multiple Islamist Parties: Islamic Andolan, the political party belonging to Charmonai Pir is known to enjoy friendly relations with Awami League including a few other pro-Indian Islamist parties. Islamic Andolan regularly participates in elections under the fascist and anti-Islamic Sheikh Hasina regime although outwardly preaches Islamic values. Hefajote Islam has also lost most of its revolutionary character and now trying to survive by surrendering to the powerful quarter. The current regime may try to bring some fringe Hefajote into the election fray.

The government has also dangled a carrot in front of Jamaat Islami by setting a date for an appeal hearing on registration. The Appellate Division of the Supreme Court granted the party two months on 31 January 2023 to prepare a statement on its appeal against a High Court verdict that scrapped its registration with the Election Commission. A few of the Jamaat workers active in social media surprisingly seem to be elated by this development. They are expressing optimism! How any person with the slightest intelligence and political knowledge can trust Sheikh Hasina and Awami’s judiciary is beyond my comprehension. It appears that they have learned nothing from the execution of their entire top leadership.

Jamaat leadership made a huge blunder by participating in the 2018 midnight election under Sheikh Hasina with the BNP symbol. We tried to caution them without any success. Whether they will again fall into the Awami trap is not known to us at all. After all, politics is known for strange bed-fellows. Jamaate Islam was very much part of the Awami League-led liaison committee in the 1996 movement against the then BNP government. I remember the picture of senior Awami Leaders taking Salat under the Imamah of Matiur Rahman Nizami whom Sheikh Hasina executed on 11 May 2016 on the judgment of war crime in a kangaroo court. Let’s hope better sense will prevail with the party leadership this time.

I would conclude by predicting that, option 1 to lure BNP in a 2018 repeat election by the Sheikh Hasina government will not succeed. If the BNP leadership succumbs due to reasons unknown to us, it may trigger the unraveling of the party, President Ziaur Rahman so courageously created to safeguard the sovereignty of the nation against Indian hegemony. The most probable scenario is the combination of options 2, 3, and 4. We can only hope that a greater unity among the democratic forces and the people of Bangladesh will defeat the fascist government and its foreign mentor through a revolution much before the 3^rd Awami election circus can be staged.

Editor-Amar Desh

02-02-2023