The GDP debate: GDP decided first, calculations done later

GDP decided first, calculations done later

The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) has provisionally calculated the growth of 5.24 per cent for the gross domestic product (GDP) in the last 2019-20 fiscal year. Economists and private research organisations claim that this growth calculation does not match reality. Questions have also been raised about the competence of BBS. There have also been allegations of political interference in modifying and fabricating data and information generated by BBS. Riti Ibrahim, former secretary of the statistics and information management department of the planning ministry, spoke on the issue. Jahangir Shah transcribed her deliberation.

The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) has given a provisional account of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the previous financial year. This calculation has been made on the basis of information received till 31 March (first nine months of the financial year). Presumably, this provisional estimate was drawn up by BBS in the normal process just as in any other year.

BBS has its weaknesses. There are very few people who have degrees in statistics. The major setback is that there are no statisticians of that quality who will guide BBS.

I saw at the beginning of my career that it is decided beforehand of how much GDP growth will be announced to the public. Later this was somehow fixed by calculating backwards.

New officers were appointed to BBS. Most of them are non-professionals. I believe initiatives need to be taken to strengthen BBS.

BBS has its weaknesses. There are very few people who have degrees in statistics. The major setback is that there are no statisticians of that quality who will guide BBS. The consultants are all administration cadre officers. So there is considerable weakness at the advisory level. There is also a weakness in the method of collecting information in the field. Nobody seems to care about BBS data.

*This analysis, originally published in Prothom Alo print edition, has been rewritten in English by Farjana Liakat

Originally published on 23 August 2020

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here