War in the Koreas: Impact on South Asia

The Korean Peninsula is on the verge of another major war; and it’s as close as lips and teeth. The war under making involves partners and alliances who may all be sucked into a major regional or global conflagration. This perilous prospect will have unleashed many predictable and unpredictable consequences and ramifications for the region and the world.

For North Korea has an entrenched strategy to invade and unite the two Koreas and remove US military presence from the DMZ across the 38th parallel; the ceasefire line agreed following the armistice that had ended the 1950-53 Korean War. Ever since, about 30-40 thousands US troops manned the DMZ, preying over North Korea round the clock.

Now, with the US’s war machines closing in to hit North Korea for defying global refrains not to recklessly conduct further nuclear tests, the likelihood of this looming war is predicted even by China.  Hence the dangers to countries like India, Bangladesh and Pakistan.

It’s a dreadful, messy war in the making, as can be gleaned from the evolving tell – tale signs. The mostly mountainous Korean Peninsula is only about 250km wide at its narrowest point, and about 1,000km long. The plain land is rare and composed mostly of marshland and farmland, making difficult the launching of any major tactical or strategic tank battle. Personal feats of individual soldiers at close-quarter – battles will decide the outcome of the war. Although the DMZ itself is about 4km wide and 250km long, its strategic significance lies in its connecting the Yellow Sea in the west, and the Sea of Japan in the east.

Quite surrealistically, India may get sucked into this regional conflagration due to the prevalence of a strategic agreement with the USA to allow Indian water, land and air facilities to the US forces; a privilege Washington will use, if needed, to counter a twin threat from North Korea: ICBM or other missile launching inside USA, and a land invasion of South Korea by the North Korean army.

And, as more than one million troops of the two armies; over 20,000 armoured vehicles and artillery guns; more than one million land mines; and thousands of concreted bunkers dot either sides of the border, missiles will fly both ways to hit Pyongyang, which is about 125km north, and Seoul, which is about 40km south of the DMZ. If the USA or South Korea hits any nuclear installation of Pyongyang, triggering the unleashing of radioactive hazards, the attack will be constructed by North Korea as a nuclear attack and will be reprised and reacted accordingly.

According to reports, North Korea had deployed approximately 65 per cent of its military units and nearly 80 per cent of its firepower within 100km of the DMZ. Numerically, the totality of the North Korean deployment squares to about 700,000 troops, 8,000 artillery pieces and 2,000 tanks. With this strength and capability, North Korea aims to overrun the DMZ, reach Seoul, and unite the two Koreas.

That’s not as easy as may be planned by Pyongyang. The Americans aside, South Korea has about 686,000 active-duty troops and 4.5 million reservists. Problem is: South’s active ground forces are about half the size of the North, although it has US-supplied superior weapons and comparable air and naval forces.

The US may also pour in more troops, if needed. For Washington, the mission is historic and geopolitically indispensable. The USA savoured the expectation of becoming a Pacific power since President Theodore Roosevelt (1901-1909) ordered massive expansion of U.S. influence in the region, following taking over from Spain the territories of the Philippines, Guam and Hawaii, at the conclusion of the 1898 Spanish-American War. Especially since the end of World War II, the US had guaranteed security of Japan and South Korea.

President Donald Trump may have to wait until April 25 when the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier arrives to South Korea’s east coast.  Joined by South Korea’s more than 2,000 US-supplied tanks and nearly 300 F5, F15 and F16 fighter jets and fighter bombers, Trump likely to order launching of cruise missiles and Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) attacks on North Korean targets. The ten-tonne MOAB was tested in Afghanistan barely a week ago.

And, if China gets involved in the showdown for whatever reasons, the signing between Delhi and Washington in August 2016 of the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) will allow the USA to use Indian military facilities for countering any Chinese threat; putting Bangladesh into a much tighter spot as to how it positions itself in this regional and global military madness. Pakistan, on its part, may feel tempted to snatch the Indian-occupied Kashmir amidst such a pandemonium, if any North Korean missile hits India during the hostility.

The North Korea is not only unpredictable, it says it’s prepared for a military showdown with the USA, including a nuclear one. Since coming to power in 2011, its leader Kim Jong Un had boosted up the country’s nuclear program; test-firing a number of rockets capable of hitting South Korea, Japan and the USA. That also means it can hit back any nation like India or Japan that it considers as the source and the abettor of the US’s war waging.  Researchers claim Pyongyang possesses about 20 nuclear arsenal in its strategic armoury, the dispute over their ranges notwithstanding.

Remarkable among the North’s arsenal are Taepdong-2 that has been used for launching satellites into the orbit and may be used to deliver nuclear warheads too, and, KN-08, a land-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), capable of hitting targets 11,500 kilometers (7,100 miles) away. During last week’s “Day of the sun” parade, Pyongyang displayed a new ICBM, which the South Korean military claimed to be longer than the KN-08 or KN-14 variants.

Another major North Korean capability is its ability to deliver nuclear warheads via 70 or so submarines operated by its navy. These subs can get closer to the US shores to rain down havoc on US cities, if not detected and destroyed en-route.

North Korea is Beijing’s strategic anchor in the region, a bondage matured since Mao Zedong’s decision in 1950 to send People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to fight against the USA and its allies in the Korean War. Amidst increased China-US cordiality in trade and economic cooperation over the decades, and North Korea’s racking up of a nuclear race, Beijing had lately tried unsuccessfully to convince its partner not to conduct further nuclear tests, prompting Trump to declare, ‘we’ll do it alone.’

Beijing is deadly opposed to such a war, fearing the influx into its territory of millions of Koreans if the war prolongs with devastating consequences. The scenario could degenerate into something more dreadful if the USA detects Beijing’s continued supply of energy and food to North Korea during the hostility. Not only over 60% of North Korean trade is with China, North Korea may be compelled to use Chinese air and land routes to avoid enemy detection.

This reality poses a greater regional and global danger to spreading the conflict beyond the Korean Peninsula and devastate global economy; given that Asia produces over half of the global GDP and China is the predominant military and economic power of the region. Besides, the USA relies on Asia for 60 percent of its total exports in goods, and, 72 percent of agricultural exports.

This is a test that will make or break Donald Trump’s presidency.

Many believe, by scuttling the TPP, Trump had paved the ways to disconnect US dependence on Asia to stop North Korea becoming nuclear.  Others say, Trump never thought of the ramifications of his country’s simultaneous isolationism in economic diplomacy and military adventurism. Be that whatever, the US has once again started dropping bombs everywhere, and, everyone must dash to shelters to avoid being hit.

Source: Weekly Holiday