Shamsuddin Ahmed
Myanmar, fighting civil war with armed ethnic groups, is set for general elections on November 8. Basically ruled by the army, a recent move by the ruling USDP and supported by opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) of Aung San Suu Kyi to lower from 75 per cent to 70 per cent support in parliament for constitutional amendment ended in failure.
With 25 per cent constitutionally guaranteed seats in parliament the army rejected the bill sought to amend the constitution. The amendment would have ended the army’s legislative veto power, paved way for constitutional reforms easy and a chance of Suu Kyi’s coming to power.
Democracy in transition
In a rare interview the Army Chief, General Min Aung Hlaing, told BBC, which was broadcast on July 19 that the military will not step back from politics until a peace deal is reached with all the ethnic armed groups of the country. But, he added, the army will respect the results of the forthcoming general elections even if the opposition wins. The army recognized the parliament as constituent assembly, not for a governing parliament. It was no surprise that after the last election the military council (SLORC) declined to hand over power to the National League for Democracy that had won the majority.
The longtime democracy leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner said she was not surprised at the fate of the amendment bill which was debated for three days in parliament. She called on her supporters not to be discouraged, and hoped her party would gain significant seats in parliament in the election. NLD participation in the election does not depend only on whether the constitution will be amended or not, she said. Nonetheless, the parliament’s decision was seen as a setback for Myanmar’s political transition, which began in 2011 when the military, which had ruled the country for decades, handed over power to a mostly civilian government.
Incidentally, Suu Kyi maintained silence on the plight of minority Muslims of Arakan state (Rohingyas) although her mentors, the western powers expressed deep concern and called for protecting their rights. Nor she was heard speaking on the civil war with ethnic armed groups to the dismay of many. Probably, she did not like to annoy the army.
Border ethnic conflict continues
Reports trickled down from across the border (Bangladesh shares 271 kilometer border with Myanmar) said many politicians and analysts in Myanmar view the mood of the military leaders is far from euphoric. They apprehend that the election will not be a happy culmination of democratic reforms. Rather it will usher in a period of acute uncertainty and unpredictable political horse-trading, disappoint almost everyone. It would not be surprising if the November 8 election yields another government dominated by retired soldiers and obliged to the serving generals.
The government is engaged in discussion with the National Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT), an umbrella organization representing all the ethnic armed groups since March, aiming at a nationwide ceasefire agreement. Officials claimed that a nationwide agreement is round the corner. Bilateral ceasefire accord was reached with most ethnic armies including adjacent Nagaland based National Socialist Council of Nagaland led by SS Khaplang. Myanmar has also Naga citizens and Khaplang came from Myanmar. NSCN has been fighting with Indian forces to establish a separate state of greater Nagaland.
Kachin, Kokang, Palaung are the main armed ethnic groups. As talks went on, fighting continued in remote northeast between the government forces and Kachin Independence Army (KIA). Kachin Land News reported Burmese army launched airstrike and ground offensive. Fighter jets bombed KIA positions. Almost daily fighting forced thousands of people flee across the border in China and also Thailand. Arakan Liberation army was emerging as another ethnic force in Myanmar’s civil war.
Conflicting reports on peace initiatives
Arakan Information Network, The Irrawaddy, reported the Arakan army over-ran two government camps in adjacent Chin state on March 29 killing two soldiers. Two others were taken prisoner. The Myanmar administration has allegedly promoted deep resentment among Rakhine community against the minority Rohingya Muslims. Official record show nearly 200 Rohingyas were killed and 1,40,000 displaced during the last few years.
Resurgence of ethnic conflict on the eve of general elections, the country is undoubtedly on the cusp of something big, wrote Richard Potter of Pittsburg in an article published by Delhi-based the Diplomat on July 22. Potter quoted Arakan army Brig General Tun Myat Naing as saying “May 2015 to May 2016 is a big period. Now it is July. This year will bring back a sort of change in the country for the better.” However, the government officials ruled out such a prospect. It hoped peace would be restored with signing ceasefire agreement with all the ethnic armed groups which is near the corner.
Source: Weekly Holiday
