India’s need to fulfil Bangladesh promises

On her recent visit to Delhi however, Dr Moni no longer held the same kind of optimism. The highlight of her trip to Delhi was a meeting with Arun Jaitley, leader of the opposition in the Rajya Sabha, the upper house of the Indian parliament, where she spoke about the need for the opposition to help ratify the Land Border agreement, exchanging of about 6879.7 hectares for 2832.8 hectares of enclave land on the India-Bangladesh border, in the upcoming Monsoon session of the parliament.

“Disappointing if the agreement is not cleared by the parliament in this session,” Dr Moni told CNN-IBN in an interview, “And definitely it would have consequences…” she said referring to Bangladesh’s expected elections due this December.

A day later, Bangladesh’s high commissioner Tariq Karim travelled to Ahmedabad and called on the BJP’s Campaign chief.

The truth is, to see the India-Bangladesh accords go through, time isn’t running out for Sheikh Hasina’s government in Dhaka only. After the monsoon session of the parliament, the window for ratifying international agreements is closing on prime minister Manmohan Singh’s UPA as well. With that, a chance to keep his word that he gave when he travelled to Dhaka in 2011 is also fading away. For that he may need to go the extra mile – convincing his own party, as well as reaching out to the opposition to ensure that the LBA is listed early in the session, and passed.

There are several reasons why the impact of the UPA’s actions on the LBA will count in both Bangladesh and in India. Contrary to what many think, it is Bangladesh, not Pakistan that shares the longest land border with India.

In terms of interface, Bangladesh is India’s most influential neighbour and the benefits of settling a decades-old land dispute between them can hardly be discounted.

The obvious impact, of course, is on the elections in Bangladesh that are due to be completed by January 2014.

While Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League may or may not win the elections on the basis of the LBA and the Teesta accords, an electoral loss will most definitely be attributed to her “over-accomodating” India. All her actions from the crackdown on the Harkat Ul Jihad’s Islamist camps, and handing over India’s most wanted even before the two countries had an extradition treaty, will simply be seen as a sign of weakness that Khaleda Zia’s BNP will capitalise on.

Zia has made it clear she doesn’t need to be friendly with India in the same way as Hasina, going to the extent of snubbing President Pranab Mukherjee when he visited Dhaka in March by calling a hartal/bandh on all the days he was there in protest of the tribunal verdicts against Jamaat e Islami leaders. She even cancelled her scheduled meeting with Mukherjee.

As members of the Indian Parliament prepare for their elections – scheduled a few months after Bangladesh’s – they must consider what kind of government in Dhaka they would like to engage with, and vote accordingly.

The Indian leadership, both UPA and its opposition, must also think about the message on terror it is giving out for the whole region. For years India has held that it is willing to go the extra mile so long as its neighbours eschew terror.

How can India justify stalling talks with Pakistan until it acts on terror, while Bangladesh, a country that has demonstrably acted on terror is given short shrift?

The Indian Parliament may take heed of the public opinion that has perceptibly changed during Hasina’s term. A survey conducted by CNN-IBN found that the more Indians felt Bangladesh was a country that should trusted more than any other country. It remains to be seen if a similar survey in Bangladesh would evoke similar results – provided India is unable to keep its word on the key issues this year.

Not just on terror, strained relations with Bangladesh at this juncture could jeopardise all the other significant gains made in bilateral ties.

Bangladesh is now India’s largest trading partner in the SAARC region, with bilateral trade hitting $5bn, and imports from Bangladesh have crossed $56m. India has effectively outbid China and Japan on several key projects in the country, including the biggest ever Bangladeshi joint venture for $1.6bn for a 1320 MW power plant at Bagerhat.

Through better road connectivity, Bangladesh is increasingly being seen as India’s link to its own North East, as well its window to South East Asia.

Last, but not the least, this is about prime minister Manmohan Singh’s legacy. His neighbourhood-policy has often been touted as the most significant part of his world-vision. In the past few years, India has broken many promises to its neighbours: supporting democracy in the Maldives, backing Sri Lanka on the LTTE, more transit trade routes for Nepal, of uninterrupted and subsidised fuel supplies to Bhutan, and of a visit to Pakistan.

The UPA government has used several reasons to explain its inability to deliver on those promises: for Sri Lanka, it cited compulsion of coalition partners. With Nepal, Bhutan and the Maldives the reason is the need to counter-balance the influence of China. With Pakistan, “public mood,” fierce resistance to peace overtures from the opposition, as well as Pakistan’s failure to deliver on its promises on trade and fighting terror have led to unfulfilled promises.

With Bangladesh, none of those reasons would suffice and the time to keep those promises, is now.

Source: Dhakatribune