Fresh crackdown in Rakhine

According to the Amnesty International, Myanmar’s “unrepentant, unreformed and unaccountable” military has been committing new war crimes since it launched a campaign in recent months against ethnic rebels in northern Rakhine state—the scene of the military’s bloody crackdown against the Rohingya Muslims in 2017. The apparent target of the campaign is the Arakan Army (AA), which is fighting for greater autonomy for the state’s ethnic Rakhine Buddhists. But as evidence gathered by the Amnesty suggests, the minority Rohingya community is also being targeted in the process. They were among civilians facing extrajudicial killings, arbitrary arrests, torture and enforced disappearances. This has, naturally, ignited fears about a 2017-like situation which saw an exodus of some 740,000 Rohingyas to Bangladesh.

The latest crackdown, which ensued after the AA attacked police posts in January, is significant because it has received enthusiastic support from State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s otherwise acquiescent government, which expressly ordered the army to “crush” the rebels. The 2017 campaign was also launched following a similar attack and went on to create an unprecedent humanitarian crisis.

The fact is, Myanmar’s dangerous obsession with using force as a cure-all for all unresolved communal issues, instead of pursuing dialogue, is a threat not only to its own internal security but also to the regional stability. It is most disconcerting for Bangladesh which stares down a bleak future with regard to the Rohingyas living on its soil and now has to brace for the potential geopolitical impact of another crackdown. For one, it may further jeopardise the already diminishing prospect of the repatriation deal between the two countries. Myanmar cannot possibly expect the deal to work while continuing to instil fear in the minds of its persecuted communities. The question is, how long before other regional players understand the far-reaching ramifications of such a situation?