The government has lowered the first-year growth target in its Eighth Five-Year Plan compared to its budget projections due to the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, which forced the country to go into a lockdown that stalled its economy.
Besides, recovery from the Covid-19 fallout has been partially mired by a second wave of infections worldwide.
As per the Eighth Five-Year Plan, the government has set a target of 7.40 per cent GDP growth for FY21, which is 80 basis points lower than the budget’s growth plan of 8.20 per cent.
However, the target still remains ambitious as it is much higher than the World Bank (WB) forecast.
In its twice-a-year regional update, the WB projected 3.4 per cent economic growth for the next update, assuming that the Covid-19 crisis would linger.
However, International Monetary Fund in its latest World Economic Outlook published in October, projected that the country’s GDP growth may stand at 7.3 per cent in fiscal 2024-25.
But the government remains very optimistic about the growth plan and seems unfazed by the prospect of the delayed recovery anticipated by its development partners.
“The development partners have said that the recovery will be prolonged but we don’t expect that,” M Shamsul Alam, a member of the General Economics Division and the main author of the plan, told The Daily Star yesterday.
“We think recovery will be swift and the economic growth would be according to our projection,” he said.
“The government thinks that the economy will rebound because of our domestic demand. Hopefully, we will achieve all the goals we have set in the eighth plan,” he added.
The plan’s implementation will require Tk 64,959.8 billion in FY21.
Of this amount, Tk 12,301.2 billion (18.9 per cent) would come from the public sector and Tk 52,656.6 billion (81.1 per cent) from the private sector.
Planning Minister MA Mannan said the private sector would invest following the policy of the government.
“The private sector will enjoy freedom but it will be within the government’s policy,” Mannan added.
Out of the estimated Tk 64,959.8 billion, Tk 57,483.9 billion (88.5 per cent) is scheduled to come from domestic sources and Tk 7,475.9 billion (11.5 per cent) from foreign sources.
