Shamsuddin Ahmed
In Myanmar, the National League for Democracy (NLD) won a landslide victory in the November 8 election raising hope high for the transition of power after more than six decades of military rule. NLD is supposed to form the government with election of President by the parliament in early March. Its chief Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi is constitutionally barred from contesting the presidency for marrying a British national, has said she will be above the President. How? She did not elaborate.
However, peaceful transition of power and democracy taking roots in Myanmar, a country riddled by ethnic war is possible but unlikely. Possible if all the three major forces the ruling elite ( army), NLD and its allies and ethnic groups fighting with the government forces and each others as well reach a consensus. But consensus seems unlikely.
Prospects fraught with danger
The ground reality is: ethnic groups continue to fight for autonomy and NLD endeavour further political reforms clipping wings of the army. Such a scenario may lead to complications and chaos provoking intervention of the army.
Bangladesh, a close door neighbor of Myanmar has reason to be worried at such a prospect. The two countries have 270 km common border on the southeast. In 1991-92, more than 2.5 lakh Rohingya Muslims, persecuted by the ruling junta, fled homes in Arakan State and took refuge in Bangladesh, already over populated, causing humanitarian problem. Myanmar junta refused to take all them back. Thousands are still living in camps in Cox’s Bazar.
Minority Muslims continued to be persecuted with the active involvement of Buddhists and government security forces. Worse is that more than seven lakh Muslims have been rendered stateless last year. Subjected to widespread violence they have been herded into camps, where many have attempted to flee to the neighbouring countries, triggering a refugee crisis throughout Southeast Asia.
Democracy leader Suu Kyi has been noticeably silent on the plight of the Muslims in Myanmar inexcusable for a Nobel Peace Prize winner. It is said that she maintained silence lest majority Buddhists turn against her. Political movement in Myanmar has influenced the landscape of the country by dogmatic form or Buddhist. This force has been constantly propagating the idea that Myanmar’s main enemy is its Muslim population. It will present a potent problem for the new government, pertinently if Suu Kyi is serious in mobilising efforts towards a national reconciliation between various ethnicities.
The army which has been ruling the country since 1962 is a major factor. They have tasted and enjoyed power and perks. Will they be ready to easily give up now? During the long rule, the army controlled the business and they made good fortunes.
Resurgence of ethnic conflicts
General Thein Sein is President. But the real power is still held by Than Shwe, the 82-year senior general, the former junta who handed over power to Thein Sein in 2011. Reports have it that Suu Kyi had a long meeting recently with Gen Than Shwe, a formidable power centre. It is well known that Than Shwe abhor Suu Kyi and nurse a personal animosity against her. It is he who amended the constitution, keeping in mind suu Kyi, to disqualify any citizen who marries a foreigner or have children of foreign citizen, to become president of Myanmar. His ministers and cronies made immense wealth at the cost of the nation. His regime brutally crushed dissent, kept Suu Kyi under house arrest as a political prisoner and locked up and tortured many of her followers.
Ethnic conflict is a major challenge for Myanmar. As long as the country’s ethnic conflicts remain unresolved, analysts predict that the trend of increased violence will continue. A report on February 10 said Intense fighting between the government troops and rebel forces in northern Shan state in recent days left more than 100 people dead, mostly on the government side. More than one lakh ethnic Rakhine Buddhists in Kachin affected by the war are to be repatriated to southwestern Rakhine state. Within just days of the election, about 10,000 civilians had been displaced in eastern Myanmar after government troops renewed offensives against ethnic Shan, Kachin and Tang rebels. Many doubt that the Army action was deliberate to express unhappiness at the Suu Kyi’s election victory.
The future government will find it a daunting task in tackling the conflict between the government and ethnic armed groups. The NLD election manifesto committed to establishing a genuine federal union. It said ethnic issue and internal peace would be achieved through peaceful political settlement based on the principles of freedom, equal rights and self-determination.
Myanmar in crossroads
The formation of a true federal union will likely be the most difficult task. For, the Army and the ethnic armed groups hold two different conceptions of federalism. The military views the idea of federalism as a withdrawal from the Union, a threat to its sovereignty, while the ethnic groups envision a more unified group of distinct parts. The Constitution allows only one army in the nation, which presents a stumbling block in discussions about autonomy demand of the ethnic groups. Democratization does not provide a viable solution to the ethnic conflicts. It may trigger new conflicts through the opening of political arena.
The Union of Burma, renamed Myanmar, never managed to unify after its founding in 1948. The transition from colonial rule to independence was marred by internal strife and conflict, and with the assassination of General Aung San and six of his cabinet ministers on 19 July 1947, the spirit of the Panglong agreement, aiming for an independent Burma by bringing together Burma proper and the frontier areas, had perished. The people of Bangladesh and around are anxiously looking how democracy leader Suu Kyi deals with the impending situation and her fate as well.
The writer is a senior journalist
Source: Weekly Holiday
