SMILES all around for the Iranians at Geneva as it signed a historic deal with the West to limit its nuclear programme; gloom all around for policymakers in Tel Aviv. That basically sums up the situation. But for Iran, reeling under the pressure of an all-pervasive noose around the neck with UN-backed sanctions that was all but crippling the economy and causing massive hardship to common Iranian folk, there was little to do but face realities on the ground. That coupled with a belligerent Netanyahu on the war path could perhaps have been deciding factors for the Iranian leadership.
The road ahead, more precisely, adhering to the 6-month road map will decide whether Iran will be allowed back in from the cold. As per the roadmap, Iran is committed to halt the enrichment of uranium above 5 per cent. Of the many commitments made by Iran in the deal in Geneva comes the promise to destroy its uranium stockpile that has been enriched to near-20%. Tehran is committed to not install any further centrifuges, which are basically machinery used in the enrichment process. Equally important is the agreement on rendering 75% of centrifuges installed in Natanz and Frod enrichment useless. However, by far the most important development is that Iran will not produce any plutonium at the Arak facility which has a heavy-water reactor. All these and other conditions met by Iran will be overseen by IAEA inspectors who will have full access to nuclear facilities on a daily basis.
In return for good faith by Tehran, Iran will get “limited, temporary, targeted, and reversible [sanctions] relief”. That and a host of other concessions by the major powers will provided Iran with a much needed breather after years of crippling sanctions. The lifting of sanctions on petrochemical exports, trade, and precious metals will mean more money to buy products for the local market. Furthermore, Iranians get back access to their oil revenues that have been frozen in various countries like China, South Korea, Turkey, Japan and India – all Iranian oil-importing nations. These funds amount to more than US$4 billion, money desperately needed by Iran. All in all, Iran will get sanction relief of around $7 billion. Lifting of sanctions mean resumption of normal banking operations, leading to a resumption of trade whereby Iran can import and export as other countries do. The deal is the result of six months of intensive negotiations with the Tehran government by a consortium popularly known as the P5+1, i.e. United States, Russia, Britain, Germany, France and China.
It is not surprising to see that the agreement has been trashed by Netanyahu’s right-of-centre government in Jerusalem. Terming the agreement as a ‘historic mistake’, Prime Minister Netanyahu has been sticking to his guns, at least in the public eye, Israel’s right to not allow take any steps necessary to neutralise Iran’s nuclear capability. It is not altogether difficult to understand why the Israeli PM finds himself between a rock and a hard place. Given that he has staked his premiership on the brinkmanship with Iran, a country which now has undertaken, a ‘historic’ step to step away from acquiring a nuclear capability. This latest diplomatic initiative which has resulted in a concrete deal between the world’s powers and Iran could prove to be game-changer for Israel’s domestic politics. According to Yoel Guzansky, former head of the Iran desk in the prime minister’s office, presently research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv: “International legitimacy for a unilateral Israeli attack is reduced significantly. The international community endorses this deal, and so Israel will find it really hard to use military power.” Belligerent talk by the Israeli PM is misplaced at this juncture and Israel-US diplomatic relations has hit a new low.
It is no secret that not all Gulf nations are particularly happy with the agreement. Iran bereft of a nuclear capability is still deemed a threat by the smaller states that make up the GCC. Between Israel and Iran, the latter is viewed as the greater enemy not necessarily because Iran possesses large conventional forces, but the fact that Iran’s leadership is Shia-led, whereas the Gulf countries are Sunni-led, many with large Shia-majority populations. Given that the Mid-East has been spared the possibility of yet another gulf war brings much relief not just to the region but to the world at large. PM Netanyahu would be wise to step away from the war path at this point in time. Any unilateral military action by Israel would discredit the government, especially since the “threat” has now been contained. It is ironic that Netanyahu is so enthusiastic about neutralising any purported nuclear capability of any Mid-East nation, especially when it is widely suspected that Israel has had a nuclear first strike capability since the late ’60s.
Source: The Daily Star
