Army deployment during Nepal poll on Nov 19

Nepal is set for election to the constituent assembly (CA) on November 19 as the first CA elected in 2008 had failed to write the constitution for the new republic. More than 60,000 army personnel in addition to police will be deployed during the polls. President Ram Baran Yadav last week issued an ordinance to remove the legal hurdle allowing army deployment. The national security council has approved army mobilization. The decision was taken following interim prime minister Khilraj Regmi’s return from a visit to Delhi.

Weekly People’s Review of Kathmandu quoting unnamed sources has said India has taken November 19 election as a prestige issue and thus the election is going to take place on schedule at any cost, although there is no electoral environment. Western countries were putting pressure on the government for holding the election to end the political stalemate. China believing election may bring stability in its southern neighbour understandably favoured the election on time.

Delhi viewed that CPN-M, which is tilted to Beijing, would be a hurdle for implementation of its interest in Nepal. Therefore, it wants to see the elections are held keeping the party and its close allies out of the race and thus have no representation in the constituent assembly. Three major parties – UCPN (Maoist), Nepali Congress and UML (Marxist-Leninst) – had agreed to negotiate with CPN to keep it in the race for avoiding conflict. But the talks did not proceed further, ostensibly at the behest of Delhi that succeeded in splitting the UCPN (Maoist).

UCPN led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal alias Prachanda that won the majority in the 2008 elections is now weakened following a split in the party. Elderly leader Mohan Baidya Kiran and Prochanda’s political guru, deserted the party with his followers for the pro-India stance of the party leadership and floated his own Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist). The party has seemingly gained popularity, being supported by nationalist forces, and two-thirds of former guerrilla fighters and nearly one hundred former CA members have rallied behind Baidya.

Bharat Dahal, an independent political analyst, said in an interview to a local radio that preliminary report of survey conducted by UCPN showed that the party will be bagging only 25 seats in the ensuing election. Therefore, Prachanda himself is trying to postpone the election. He is regularly meeting with Baidya. What transpired in the meetings was not divulged. Bharat Dahal expressed doubts on timely elections. He believed that there is a possibility of formation of a front of the patriotic forces who will oppose the election which they tend to feel is being held in the interests of India only. New issues will surface after the elections as the government has distributed citizenships to thousands of Indian citizens.

CPN-M leaders have been publicly saying that the future CA agenda is not in the interests of the country. In fact this is only for the Sikkimization process of Nepal. Therefore, if elections are held by sidelining their party, they will not allow the government and the political parties to hold such an anti-national election. They have hinted that they may take violent steps if elections are held. They will also not going to tolerate deployment of the army during the polls.

The upcoming election in Nepal reminds the regional observers of September 7 presidential polls in Maldives. Mohammed Nasheed favoured by India failed to win the majority of votes. The run-off between him and Yameen Abdullah, half-brother of former ruler Mamoon Abdul Gayoom set for September 28 was postponed indefinitely on orders of the Supreme Court in a case of election rigging. Seeking annulment of election results the petitioner accused that a foreign power, with oblique reference to India, of intruding into Election Commission for rigging the polls. They allege that thousands of people not in the voters list have cast votes. Taking cognizance to the accusation, the court directed the Election Commission to submit the voters’ registry for inspection.

This was a shock for the Indian strategic establishment coming from the least expected Maldives. Rajeev Sharma writing under the heading: Is this end of India’s influence over Maldives?” (Firstpost World September 23) observed that the development indicates that all is not well for India in the tiny archipelago nation in the Indian Ocean where Pakistan and China are feverishly engaged in a covert game of outsmarting and outplaying India on the Maldivian chess board.

It remains to be seen whether the Indian foreign policy establishment receives a few more jolts from other neighbours. Nepal goes to polls on November 19 and election in Bangladesh is due in January next. Big brother India has spread its tentacles in both the countries to have its chosen men or women to form the government. How the election processes develop in Nepal and Bangladesh is interesting for others to watch.

Source: Weekly Holiday