al-Qaeda puts South Asia in crosshairs

Law enforcement agencies scrambled to assess the threat raised by al-Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri’s announcement that a South Asian branch of its international armed group had been established “to raise the flag of jihad” in the region.

The al-Qaeda video comes six months after a previous call to Bangladeshi Muslims to adopt al-Qaeda’s version of Islam and take part in holy war. An audio message believed to be authentic, calling on Bangladeshis to join the movement, was released in January this year.

The 63-year-old Islamist militant, who took over the al-Qaeda organisation after US commandos killed Osama bin Laden in Pakistan in May 2011, announced the establishment of “Qaedat al Jihad in the Indian subcontinent,” in a video spotted on Wednesday on online jihadist forums by US-based jihadist threat monitor, SITE Intelligence Group.

State Minister for Home Affairs Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal yesterday said Bangladesh’s official reaction to the video would be made today.

“We are looking into the al-Qaeda video message,” he said yesterday as intelligence agencies worked to authenticate the video.

“We are verifying the origin and authenticity of the video,” the state minister said, adding: “We have been working on curbing militancy for a long time.”

In neighbouring India, the home minister, Rajnath Singh, met with National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and the director of the intelligence bureau, sources said. The government was treating the video as “genuine”, although it would be verified, and issued “an alert across several states,” India’s The Hindu newspaper reported.

The new entity, Qaedat al Jihad in the Indian subcontinent, was announced by As Sahab, al-Qaeda’s official media wing, in a video posted on social media outlets including YouTube, Qatar-based al Jazeera reported.

Known to be active in Afghanistan and Pakistan, al-Qaeda has vowed to export jihad to India, Myanmar and Bangladesh, in defence of those Zawahiri described as: “Vulnerable in the Indian subcontinent, in Burma, Bangladesh, Assam, Gujarat, Ahmedabad, and Kashmir…”

The only known operation by al-Qaeda in India, a reconnaissance mission carried out by a Yemeni national in Goa some time between 2008 and 2009, was discovered when US forces retrieved the terrorist’s computer after he was killed in Iraq, India’s NDTV reported.

In the 55-minute video, al Zawahiri said Qaedat al Jihad would recognise the overarching leadership of Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Muhammad Omar but will be led day-to-day by senior Pakistani fighter Asim Umar, according to al Jazeera.

Asim Umar, who featured in an al-Qaeda film commemorating the 11th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, is regarded as a rising star in al-Qaeda’s Pakistani operations, according to the Wilson Centre, a prominent US think-tank.

Umar, while focused on al-Qaeda’s stated strategic war against the US and the West, has also advocated for war against the “near enemy” and called for localised jihad in South Asia.

In a 2013 video released by al-Qaeda titled, “Why Is There No Storm In You Ocean,” Umar chastised Indian Muslims for not taking a greater role in international jihad. Although, his identity has not been confirmed, some sources have speculated he might be a Pakistani Punjabi militant commander from the town of Miranshah, the BBC reported.

Intelligence analysts say the new video is part of a recruitment campaign by al-Qaeda to battle the growing pre-eminence of Islamic State (IS) in jihadist circles. IS has overrun territory in eastern Syria, and northern and western Iraq the size of Belgium and has set up a rudimentary state, which it calls a caliphate, in the area it occupies.

Analysts say the Zawahiri video, although it could presage actual jihadist violence in South Asia, may be understood to be an attempt to challenge the IS.

The appeal to notions of Muslim persecution, real or imagined, is not new to al-Qaeda. In the video, Zawahiri says: “Your brothers in Qaedat al Jihad did not forget you and they are doing what they can to rescue you from injustice, oppression, persecution, and suffering.”

But his vow to “crush the artificial borders” dividing Muslim populations in the region probably refers to IS successes in Iraq and Syria. In the words of BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner, “Islamic State (IS) has grown into everything al-Qaeda tried – and failed – to be.”

Because of its location straddling two of the new areas of operation highlighted in the video – Bangladesh and Myanmar – Chittagong police authorities have taken precautionary measures, according to a report sent by our Chittagong Correspondent Tarek Mahmud.

A Chittagong Metropolitan Police (CMP) Detective Branch (DB) official, seeking anonymity, told the Dhaka Tribune that the CMP had increased surveillance over 15 madrasas in the port city dominated by Hefazat-e-Islam, Jamaat-e-Islam and Islami Chhatra Shibir, following instructions from police headquarters.

CMP acting commissioner Banaz Kumar Majumder confirmed to the Dhaka Tribune that police had increased surveillance over certain madrasas, some organisations and some residential areas, but did not disclose details for security reasons.

CMP DB Additional Deputy Commissioner Engineer Hasan Chowdhury said detectives had been deployed as a precautionary step.

Of the 15 madrasas, Lalkhanbazar Madrasa of Hefazat Senior Nayeb-e-Amir Mufti Izharul Islam, Mojaherul Ulum Madrasa in the city’s Miakhan Nagar and Darul Ulum Madrasa in the Chandanpura area were considered significant. Other madrasas at Chandgaon, Firoz Shah Colony and Bakalia areas were also under surveillance, said the DB official, who asked to remain anonymous.

The killing of Osama bin Laden in a US commando operation in Pakistan, demonstrated the susceptibility of South Asia to Islamist militant groups – both as a safe haven and source of crowd-funding and also as a potential theatre of military operations.

While the dominant position of al-Qaeda among jihadist forces has been eclipsed in recent times, first by its spin-off organisations in Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, the challenge posed by Islamic State seems to have elicited a response from the group, analysts said.

Although al-Qaeda is still regarded as a threat to the West but it has never been able to replicate an attack on the scale of the September 11, 2001 attacks by hijacked airliners on New York and Washington.

Analysts believe the launching of Qaedat al Jihad in the Indian subcontinent, hoping to capitalise on unrest in Kashmir and Myanmar, could be an attempt by the group to remain relevant and regain some of its lost lustre in jihadist circles.

The political economy of jihadist terrorism, apart from any ideological agendas the groups may have, is sufficient incentive for groups to push for top position.

The IS, for example, has managed to get hold of a de facto capital, Raqqa, operates a disciplined administrative and command structure, runs a rudimentary fiscal apparatus, and has an estimated $2 billion in its war chest.

Despite international outrage for the atrocities it has committed against civilians and journalists, the IS is enjoying a surge in recruitment, the BBC says.

The latest video showed footage of bin Laden before showing a map of southwest Asia, the Indian subcontinent and the Horn of Africa. It then showed Zawahiri’s speech, in Arabic, followed by Asim Umar, speaking in Urdu, and identified a new group spokesman identified as Usama Mahmoud.