Planning minister AHM Mustafa Kamal on Wednesday said that the GDP growth might stand in between 6.5 per cent and 7 per cent despite the political turmoil during January to mid-March in the country.
At a press briefing at the ministry, he also said that the economy grew by 6.5 per cent in nine months of the current fiscal year as per calculation of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics.
He said that the GDP growth would not come down below 6.5 per cent by any means in the fiscal year.
Differing with the projection of the World Bank regarding economic growth in the FY 2014-2015 and production loss during the turmoil-hit months, Kamal said that the production loss would be the highest 0.1 per cent of GDP due to the unrest.
‘The government expected economic growth at over 7 per cent in the year but it could not reach at that point due to the loss,’ he said.
He said that estimation made by different organisations regarding economic loss amid the political unrest was not accurate.
‘As per the BBS data, we see that no economic activities such as production in factories, in agriculture, export and communication remained closed during the months though it became a little bit costly and got disrupted,’ he said.
Though the minister disclosed the provisional GDP growth rate for nine months, he did not provide the data for February and March when the violence reached its peak saying that the data for these two months would be available by May.
The WB, the international lending agency, on Sunday said that the country lost one per cent or Tk 17,150 crore of its GDP due to the violence occurred during a nonstop blockade and frequent hartals enforced by BNP-led opposition alliance during the period.
Political turmoil is taking a heavy toll on the economy and it will grow only by 5.6 per cent in the year which could have been 6.6 per cent in absence of such turmoil, the WB said.
Earlier on April 5, country’s leading independent think-tank Centre for Policy Dialogue said that the country lost 0.55 per cent or Tk 4,900 crore of the GDP due to the recent political unrest.
Even, prime minister Sheikh Hasina earlier in late February in parliament said that the economic loss might be Tk 1.20 lakh crore due to the unrest.
Kamal said that the prime minister and other organisations meant the loss as the possible additional production in absence of political turmoil which was not actually loss in economy.
‘The loss is what we could not produce despite projection to produce,’ he said.
He also said that a development project to build Khan Jahan Ali Airport at Bagerhat, near the Mongla Port, might be approved in the next meeting of the executive committee of the National Economic Council.
The BBS estimated GDP growth calculating economic activities in 15 sectors such as agriculture, fishing, mining and quarrying, manufacturing, electricity, gas, construction, wholesale and retail trade, transport, storage and communication, hotel and restaurant, financial institutions, housing, public administration, education, health and social works.
According to the BBS data, aus, aman and jute production grew slightly in the year while the growth of boro is yet to be estimated.
Gas and electricity production grew by 6.26 per cent and 6.58 per cent respectively in July-January period of the current fiscal year against 1.53 per cent and 4.63 per cent from that of last year.
Industrial production grew by 9.38 per cent in July-December which was 9.23 per cent in entire last year.
Kamal said other sectors were also showing positive trends in the first seven and eight months that would lead to a 6.5 per cent plus growth in the year.
Source: New Age
