By: Salah Uddin Shoaib Choudhury
This Parliament of Bangladesh or Jatiya Sangsad consists of 345 seats. Out of that, 300 members are directly elected from each constituency and 45 seats are reserved for women who are elected by directly elected members.
According to an intelligence reports, Bangladesh Awami League, which got a sweeping majority in the December 2008 general election, is destined to facing massive electoral catastrophe, while at least 150 seats, which are currently held by the ruling party men are going to slip away from their grips. It may be mentioned here that, Bangladesh Awami League got 266 seats during the 2008 election, thus giving it the huge command over the National Parliament. But such huge popularity or mandate of the voters in favor of the ruling party started getting dented when the student’s wing of Bangladesh Awami League established reign of terror in most of the campuses in the country, within weeks of the formation of government by the ruling party. The situation started getting worst when a bloody massacre took place inside the headquarters of the border security forces in Bangladesh, just on the second month of the ruling party being in power, where 73 army officers were brutally murdered while members of their families were humiliated and tortured by the renegade soldiers of the regiment.
With such serious adversities, while the ruling party has subsequently failed in fulfilling most of its electoral pledges, including resolving the power crisis, creating job opportunities for at least 1.2 million people, keeping the prices of the essentials within the reach of the lower income group and strengthening country’s economy, one of the top intelligence agencies was instructed by the top policymakers of the government to conduct a secret survey to assess the results in the upcoming general election in Bangladesh. The survey of this intelligence agency continued for more than three months covering all the 300 seats of the National Parliament. The reports have identified the following seats as “risky” for the ruling party, where Bangladesh Awami League or its coalition partner’s candidates may face defeat with mentionable margins of the votes. The risky seats are:
01. Khagrachhari: Jotindra Lal Tripura
02. Cox’s Bazar – 4: Abdur Rahman Bodi, MP
03. Chittagong – 1: Engineer Mosharraf Hossain, MP
04. Chittagong – 6: Mohammad Hassan Mahmud, MP
05. Chittagong – 7: Moinuddin Khan Badol, MP
06. Chittagong – 8: Nurul Islam, BSc, MP
07. Chittagong – 9: Md. Ashraful Amin, MP
08. Chittagong – 10: Abdul Latif, MP
09. Chittagong – 11: Shamsul Huq Chowdhury, MP
10. Chittagong – 12: Akhtarujjaman Chowdhury, MP
11. Noakhali – 5: Obaidul Kader, MP
12. Noakhali – 4: Akramul Karim Chowdhury, MP
13. Chandpur – 2: Md. Rafiqul Islam, MP
14. Chandpur – 1: Md. Mohiuddin Khan Alomgir, MP
15. Comilla – 11: Md. Mojibul Hoq, MP
16. Comilla – 1: Mohammed Subid Ali Bhuiyan, MP
17. Brahmanbaria – 6: A B Tajul Islam, MP
18. Brahmanbaria – 5: Shah Jikrul Islam, MP
19. Brahmanbaria – 3: Lutful Hai, MP
20. Habiganj – 3: Md. Abu Zahir, MP
21. Habiganj – 2: Md. Abdul Mojid Khan, MP
22. Habiganj – 1:
23. Maulvibazar – 4: Md. Abdus Shahid, MP
24. Sylhet – 5: Hafiz Uddin Ahmed Majumder, MP
25. Sylhet – 4: Imran Ahmed, MP
26. Sylhet – 3: Mahmudus Samad Chowdhury, MP
27. Sylhet – 2: Shafiqur Rahman Chowdhury, MP
28. Sunamganj – 5: Mohibur Rahman Manik, MP
29. Sunamganj – 4: Begum Momtaj Iqbal, MP
30. Sunamganj – 3: M A Mannan, MP
31. Sunamganj – 1: B M Mozammel Hoque, MP
32. Faridpur – 4: Nilufar Jafarullah, MP
33. Faridpur – 2: Syeda Sajeda Chowdhury, MP
34. Rajbari – 2: Muhammad Zillul Hakim, MP
35. Narayanganj – 4: Shara Begum Kabari, MP
36. Narayanganj – 2: Md. Nazrul Islam Babu, MP
37. Narsingdi – 5: Raziuddin Ahmed, MP
38. Narsingdi – 4: Nurul Mazid Muhammed Humayun, MP
39. Narsingdi – 3: Zahirul Huq Mohan, MP
40. Gazipur – 5: Meher Afroj, MP
41. Gazipur – 4: Tanjim Ahmad, MP
42. Gazipur – 3: Alhaj Advocate Md. Rahmat Ali, MP
43. Dhaka – 20: Benzir Ahmed, MP
44. Dhaka – 18: Sahara Khatun, MP
45. Dhaka – 17: Hussain Muhammad Ershad, MP
46. Dhaka – 15: Kamal Ahmed Majumder, MP
47. Dhaka – 14: Md. Aslamul Huq, MP
48. Dhaka – 13: Jahangir Kabir Nanak, MP
49. Dhaka – 12: Sheikh Fazle Noor Taposh, MP
50. Dhaka – 9: Saber Hossain Chowdhury, MP
51. Dhaka – 8: Rashed Khan Menon, MP
52. Dhaka – 6: Mizanur Rahman Khan, MP
53. Dhaka – 4: Sanjida Khanam, MP
54. Dhaka – 3: Nasrul Hamid, MP
55. Dhaka – 2: Md. Kamrul Islam, MP
56. Munshiganj – 2: Segufta Yasmin, MP
57. Munshiganj – 1: Sukumar Ranjan Ghosh, MP
58. Manikganj – 2: S M Abdul Mannan, MP
59. Kishoreganj – 5: Md. Afzal Hossain, MP
60. Netrokona – 5: Waresat Hossain Belal, MP
61. Netrokona – 4: Rebeka Momin, MP
62. Netrokona – 3: Monzur Quader Quraishi, MP
63. Mymensing – 9: Major General Abdus Salam, MP
64. Mymensing – 8: Md. Abdus Sattar, MP
65. Mymensing – 5: K M Khalid, MP
66. Sherpur – 3: AKM Fazlul Huq, MP
67. Sherpur – 1: Atiur Rahman Atiq, MP
68. Jamalpur – 5: Md. Rezaul Karim Hira, MP
69. Jamalpur – 4: Md. Murad Hossain, MP
70. Jamalpur – 3: Mirza Azam, MP
71. Tangail – 8: Saokat Momen Shahjahan, MP
72. Tangail – 6: Khondokar Abdul Baten, MP
73. Tangail – 5: Md. Abul Kashem, MP
74. Tangail – 4: Abdul Latif Siddique, MP
75. Pirojpur – 3: Md. Anwar Hossain, MP
76. Jhalokathi – 2: Amir Hossain Amu, MP
77. Barisal – 6: ABM Ruhul Amin Howlader, MP
78. Barisal – 3: Golam Kibria Tipu, MP
79. Barisal – 2: Md. Manirul Islam, MP
80. Bhola – 4: Abdullah Al Islam Jacob, MP
81. Bhola – 3: Md. Jasim Uddin, MP
82. Patuakhali – 4: Md. Mahbubur Rahman, MP
83. Patuakhali – 3: Golam Mowla Rony, MP
84. Patuakhali – 2: Golam Sobur, MP
85. Sathkhira – 2: M A Jabbar, MP
86. Khulna – 3: Begum Monnujan Sufiyan, MP
87. Khulna – 1: Nani Gopal Mondal, MP
88. Jessore – 6: Sheikh Abdul Wohab, MP
89. Jessore – 5: Khan Tipu Sultan, MP
90. Jessore – 3: Md. Khaledur Rahman Tito, MP
91. Jessore – 1: Sheikh Afil Uddin, MP
92. Jhenaidah – 3: Md. Shafiqul Azam Khan, MP
93. Jhenaidah – 1: Md. Abdul Hai, MP
94. Kushtia – 4: Sultana Tarun, MP
95. Kushtia – 3: K H Rashidujjaman, MP
96. Kushtia – 2: Hasanul Huq Inu, MP
97. Kushtia – 1: Afaz Uddin Ahmed, MP
98. Meherpur -1 : Joynal Abedin, MP
99. Pabna – 5: Golam Faruk Khan, MP
There are also indications about 50:50 risks in Pabna -1, Sirajganj – 6, Sirajganj – 5, Sirajganj – 4, Sirajganj – 3, Sirajganj – 1, Natore – 4, Natore – 3, Rajshahi – 6, Rajshahi – 4, Rajshahi – 1, Naogaon – 6, Naogaon – 5, Naogaon – 4, Naogaon – 3, Naogaon – 2, Naogaon – 1, Chapai Nawabganj – 3, Chapai Nawabganj – 2, Chapai Nawabganj – 1, Bogra – 5, Bogra – 1, Gaibandha – 5, Gaibandha – 4, Gaibandha – 3, Gaibandha – 2, Gaibandha – 1, Kurigram – 4, Kurigram – 3, Kurigram – 2, Kurigram – 1, Rangpur – 6, Rangpur – 5, Rangpur – 2, Niphamari – 4, Niphamari – 2, Niphamari – 1, Dinajpur – 3, Dinajpur – 2 and Thakurgaon – 4 constituencies.
The intelligence agency in its report further mentioned that, if the power crisis will continue to worsen in the coming months and the prices of essentials are not controlled, “acceptability of the ruling party” will further decline within this year. It alerted the ruling party that, if the next general election takes place without “much improvement” of the existing situation in Bangladesh, especially power crisis, unemployment, rise in the prices of essentials, share market scam and possible catastrophe following massive fraud by MLM companies such as Unipay2u, Destiny, Aimway etc., the ruling party will “struggle” in retaining at least 92 seats during that election, while the opposition alliance may win the election with “brute majority”. It even said that the election 2014 results may be “much surprising” than that of election of 2001, where Bangladesh Nationalist Party led coalitions got massive majority.
Issue of this survey and subsequent comment by the intelligence agency was echoed by the Prime Minister herself on June 11, during the meeting of the Parliamentary Committee of the ruling Bangladesh Awami League. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, referring to the report said, many of the parliamentary seats have already become “risky” for her party candidates, where they face defeat in 2014. She warned the party MPs stating, their records of deeds are already available with the Prime Minister.
The intelligence agency suggested the ruling party to introduce Electronic Voting Machine [EVM] during the election of 2014, to “manage the results in favor of Bangladesh Awami League led coalitions.”
It may be mentioned here that, during the General Election of 2008, Bangladesh Awami League led Grand Alliance got 262 seats, where Bangladesh Awami League alone bagged 230 seats.
Commenting on the intelligence report, neutral political observers say, Bangladesh Awami League managed to be in power during the general election in 2006 and subsequently they became extremely unpopular due to series of misdeeds of the party leaders, MPs and cadres as well as massive corruption, nepotism and terror. The same thing is repeating now, even in worst form, since the ruling party came in power through the election of December 2008. This is a bad sign indeed, which clearly shows that the ruling party is destined to facing huge political setback and massive defeat during the next general election. Though policymakers of the ruling party are seeing the hope of returning in power with at least 175 seats during the next general election, the reality may turn completely unprecedented for them and it may even fail to bag more than 45 seats throughout the country. It said, “During the 2008 election, the waves of mass support were in favor of Bangladesh Awami League, while in 2014, it will be totally opposite.”
The analyst further said that the state machinery as well as civil and military administration will start behaving totally in neutral manner from the end of 2012, if not certainly from mid-2013, where the ruling party will greatly fail in using the state machinery completely in their favor as they could now. Under such circumstance, the ruling party will fail in tackling the internal situation, especially the ever sharpening movements of the opposition parties.
Starting from the contents of the intelligence report to the latest statement of the Prime Minister and the forecasts by the analysts, it is crystal clear that the ruling Bangladesh Awami League certainly is destined towards facing a huge political catastrophe and huge defeat during the next general election in the country
