THE pattern is familiar. Since the 1990s, before every election for the Jatiya Sangsad (parliament), the political situation becomes dicier with every passing day. The atmosphere this time seems even worse than before.
The efforts being made earlier by the civil society, the intelligentsia and the diplomatic circles to pressure the two major political forces, the ruling Awami League (AL) and the opposition BNP, so they may reach an understanding through dialogue on the election-time government seem to have run out of steam. Seeing that their persuasions and advice have fallen on deaf ears, they appear to have resigned to the status quo — the state of unending confrontation and standoff.
Meanwhile, battle lines are being drawn between the main rivals in our politics: the AL and the BNP. Obviously, the AL has taken a hard-line policy towards the opposition’s demand for a caretaker government to hold next general election.
This stance of the ruling party eludes some among us who still believe in the possibility of a peaceful transition of power from the present one to the next elected government. How can AL take such an uncompromising stance, given the recent debacle it faced in the five city corporation elections?
AL policymakers are certainly not so naïve as to be sold on the notion that results of the recent local government elections, held so close to the upcoming national polls, will have little impact on the latter. They appear to have other things in mind.
It looks like the Al has reframed its electoral strategy to face the opposition. To the ongoing politico-ideological war against the BNP-Jamaat alliance has been added the propaganda campaign targeting the orthodox Islmic clerics’ outfit, Hefazat-e-Islam. By these means, the AL has been further broadening the scope of its pro-and anti-liberation narrative to accommodate the wider section of liberal democratic and secular elements into the fold. Hefazat issue is being conveniently exploited to give a modernistic twist to the AL’s political discourse vis-à-vis that of the opposition’s. AL may also like to exploit the recent developments like High Court’s cancelling the BNP ally, Jamaat-e-Islami’s status as a registered political party with the Election Commission (EC) to its advantage. . All this AL finds grist for the mill. That is because, cornered by so many odds, Jamaat will be goaded into getting more violent in a last-ditch effort to keep its existence. BNP will only be too eager to have a more desperate Jamaat by its side to launch a tougher movement against the government.
If that happens, and the recent utterances of BNP leaders also point strongly to that direction, the government will be happier. It will then be able to launch its two-pronged politico-ideological attack against BNP-led alliance. Through this campaign it would try to present itself to what it terms pro-liberation as well as democratic-secular-liberal quarters at home and to the western powers abroad as the only alternative before them, if democracy and all the ideals it stand for are to saved in Bangladesh. The opposition backed by Jamaat and other religion-based parties and groups would naturally be portrayed as forces out to destroy these higher ideals of democracy. In such scheme of things, AL’s campaign against Islamic forces-backed opposition would look like a struggle between the forces of democracy, modernity and enlightenment one one side versus those of reaction and backwardness on the other.
How far this strategy would work is another matter. Outsiders, who have been watching our politics and its history closely, may not be an instant sucker for this posture of the L. That is also true of all the liberal democrats at home.
The opposition BNP, though a centre-right political party with pluralistic democratic programme, has willy-nilly found itself in this far right politico-ideological straitjacket.
But to all appearances, far from making any efforts to come up with a counter-strategy to get out of this predicament, it is rather trying to make the most of this different ball game. In fact, it is focusing on the vote bank among of the religion-based groups and parties.
The issue of religion, Islam in particular, is looked at differently by a rural voter than an educated urban one. To the rural voter, religion is part of his/her existence. The BNP is trying to cash in on the sentiments of the majority, the tradition-bound and less educated section of the electorate, whose feelings, it (BNP) thinks, have been hurt by government’s messing up with the religious issue.
It is not that AL is not aware of this danger, for they have already been blaming BNP and Hefazat for playing the religion card in the recent city corporation elections resulting in its electoral debacle.
Even as they know where the fault lines of their electoral strategies lie, the AL and the BNP would not stop trying to overreach themselves. They are perhaps waiting for a miracle to happen in their favour. Given the history of the last two decades plus years, they should have been wiser.
The writer is Editor, Science & Life, The Daily Star.
E-mail:sfalim@gmail.com
Source: The Daily Star
