Given the high stakes that are involved, it is unlikely that the Awami League in general and Sheikh Hasina in particular will readily comply with the US pressure to relinquish power, especially at a time when there is massive anti-incumbency besides grave charges of corruption, human rights abuses, malgovernance, among other issues, against the current regime.

Speaking strictly on conditions of anonymity, the sources said that this message was conveyed to senior Bangladeshi officials by American Deputy Assistant Secretary (South Asia and Central Asia) Afreen Akhter during her meeting with Bangladesh foreign secretary Masud Bin Momen on October 16.

Besides raising the fraught issue of free, fair and participatory elections in Bangladesh, Akhter also discussed with the subjects of Rohingya refugees and the recent visit of a bipartisan American delegation comprising members of two important American think tanks with Momen, who confirmed this to reporters later the same day. Bangladesh Ministry of Foreign Affairs director general Masud Alam was present during the meeting between Akhter and Momen.

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The Bangladesh foreign secretary had reacted sharply, saying that “Bangladesh objects to unnecessary foreign interference in its internal affairs”. The sources said that Akhter placed two options before her Bangladeshi hosts, eight days before Sheikh Hasina is set to leave for Brussels on an official tour. As part of the first option, Sheikh Hasina government could resign and hand over charge to President Mohammad Shahabuddin who, incidentally left for Singapore on October 16 and is not expected to return to the country before October 30.

The last session of the Jatiya Sangshad is set to begin on October 22 and the government of the day will likely declare the official election notification in the last week of this month or the first week of November.

The second option, the US official presented before Momen and Masud, recommended transfer of power by the incumbent Awami League government to Speaker Shirin Sharmin Chaudhury by November 3 before paving the way for a truly free, fair, participatory and inclusive elections. “The US prefers that the Sheikh Hasina regime opts for the second course,” a source, fully aware of the details of the American proposals, said.

Chaudhury was in New Delhi last week to take part in the Ninth G20 Parliamentary Speakers’ Summit (P20). She had met Indian officials on the sidelines of the P20.

The bases of the two options presented before the Bangladeshi leadership was that both were “within the framework of the Constitution” and therefore could be acted upon and considered by the government. Chapter II of Part IV of the Bangladeshi constitution says:
“(1) The office of the Prime Minister shall become vacant
(a) if he resigns from office at any time by placing his resignation in the hands of the President; or (b) if he ceases to be a member of Parliament.
(2) If the Prime Minister ceases to retain the support of a majority of the members of Parliament, he shall either resign his office or advise the President in writing to dissolve Parliament, and if he so advises the President shall, if he is satisfied that no other member of Parliament commands the support of the majority of the members of Parliament, dissolve Parliament accordingly”.

Also, Article 54 of the constitution says that “If a vacancy occurs in the office of President or if the President is unable to discharge the functions of his office on account of his absence, illness or any other cause, the Speaker shall discharge those functions until a President is elected or until the President assumes the functions of his office, as the case may be”.

Importantly, it was indicated by the US deputy assistant secretary that failure to comply with the two options – but preferably the second – would be followed by a series of strong economic sanctions against Bangladeshi individuals, including influential businessmen and political leaders.

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In the event of the ruling Awami League chosing to disregard the US “ultimatum”, as one source described the two options, the American authorities are said to have told their interlocutors in Dhaka that due processes of law would follow against a “high value” Bangladeshi individual residing in that country.

Speaking to Northeast News, one of Bangladesh’s foremost constitutional experts, Shahdeen Malik, said that in the event of a situation, political or otherwise, “the prime minister will have to advise the president to dissolve parliament till the time fresh elections are held. The president, in turn, will ask the cabinet to continue. And, in the event the president is indisposed, for whatever reasons, the speaker will fulfill his duties and responsibilities”.

Agreeing that there “are lots of faults with the 15th amendment to the constitution”, Malik said that “it will be politically suicidal for her if she gives in to demands to quit”. Malik concluded that “Sheikh Hasina will defy such moves” and that he “apprehends the regime will turn repressive”.