The Middle East burns

So this is finally happening. A band of militants fighting in the name of religion, or jihadists as they call themselves, has been able to quarter away parts of Syria and Iraq declaring a new Islamic state after driving out a ragtag Iraqi army comprising mainly Shiite soldiers. The insurgents call their newly acquired chunk of land Islamic State of Levant because their dream goes beyond Syria and Iraq to other neighbouring Muslim Arab countries. The leader of this ambitious group has grandiosely declared himself Khalifah (Caliph). For the first time since the map of this part of the world was redrawn by the West after the First World War, another attempt is being launched by militant Islamists to establish their worldview on the map of the Middle East.

To say that this military success of the militants has taken the countries within the area, or even the outside world, by surprise would be a misstatement. It may be a surprise to the weakling government of Iraq, but other countries in the neighbourhood, including Iran, were all aware that the Islami jihadists had established a firm foothold in the area following the Iraq war and the beginning of the turbulence in the Middle East. The Syrian war gave birth to different militant groups fighting against the regime, but none more determined and aggressive than the Islamists who established their version of Islamic laws in the cities and towns they controlled.

The conundrum now is not how the jihadists have been able to drive away thousands of Iraqi forces from a large chunk of territory in Iraq and Syria, the main puzzle is how they have been able to hold on to a territory bordering three countries (Syria, Iraq, and Iran) without much opposition. It seems the jihadists are now in comfortable control of the territory despite attempts at thwarting them with help of volunteer forces by the jittery Iraqi government of Malliki. Assistance from neighbours, including Iran, is scarcely visible, while the main ally of Iraq — the United States – is in watch-and-see mode. In the meantime, the Iraqi army, even with support from volunteers, keeps retreating to the inner belt of the country.

There are two possible outcomes from this latest success of the Islamic militants: Either the map of the Middle East will be redrawn, or this new breed of militants will be wiped out from the territory – at least for some years to come. Both cases will have serious repercussions in the Middle East, with fallouts that may extend to the West as well.

The grand ambition of the militants to establish an Islamic Caliphate harking back to a period that spawned the Islamic world 1,400 years ago, may sound quixotic to many. But to the strain of militants who swear by it, it is a dream that must be realised at any cost. This is a brand of Islamists who are different from others of their ilk, including Al Qaeda, that apparently disapproves of the harsh ideology and practices of the band.

The group that vows to establish their ideals on the territory they have grabbed believes not in propagation of their ideas by word, but by sword. They do not believe that a state is run by the will of people; they believe it is run by the will of God. They are not moved by the ideals of democracy, but by the ideals of theocracy. Democracy, as is understood in the countries that practice it, is anathema to the core belief of this brand.

An Islamic state based on the ideals of these firebrands will separate it completely from other Muslim countries in the area. And if the state does become viable, it will not stop there, because its grand ambition will be to convert all other countries to their definition of Islam and Islamic state. In other words, the conflict will continue.

In an ideal world where no country interferes in the affairs of another, no community dabbles in the politics of another, in other words live harmoniously, a state could operate in any manner it liked as long as it does not harm its neighbours. The so-called Islamic State of Syria and Levant exist on name only, in a territory that the militants have occupied by driving out the legitimate forces of the affected countries. It has yet to become operational, and if it did, its viability would be open to question without acceptance from its neighbours and the international community. But it remains a possibility, given the current conditions in Iraq and Syria. Without external assistance of a material kind to retake the lost territory from the militants, the possibility is looming larger every day.

The good news, or bad news depending on the perspective one has on the issue, is that a firebrand Islamic state bred by a dream of a medieval period will not happen simply on the tenacity or jihadi spirit of a militant group. The group may be aided with the firepower and zeal of a band of committed radicals, but it will not succeed until it gets moral and physical support from people they want to establish their ideas upon. More importantly, the territory they are holding on to will need more than their firepower to be viable. It will need either acquiescence or concurrence of the countries within the territory and the powers that sustain those countries. Militancy alone, however imbued it may be with religious fervour, cannot found a state.

New events close to the tri-state area (Syria, Iraq, and Iran), with renewed hostility between Israel and Palestinians in Gaza, have temporarily put the war in Iraq and Syria in the backburner. But with territories already lost to Iraq, to the militants, with possibilities of further inroad inside Iraq by them, parties vitally interested in the area will not remain dormant. An all-out effort to drive the militants and demolish them will be made by the countries threatened soon.

A radical Islamic state based on the dreams of a band of zealots may not happen without external support and popular acceptance of the new rulers of the land. Unfortunately, an outcome of either kind will be costly to all participants, most importantly to the people living in the affected areas. It seems the Middle East will continue to burn for the foreseeable time.

Source: Dhaka Tribune