The Government in multiple jeopardy

W`the nation tiptoes toward the general election come Jan 2014, the government of the day has tall orders. Almost all economic sectors are posting negative growth. About 5, 000 RMG units laying golden eggs became heroes from zeroes because of nearly 4 million poor females as cheap labour since 80s.  After serial tragedies America’s international brand chain retailers threatened to stop business with Bangladesh and US President signed the Bill for cancellation of GSP facility sine die.

EU also dealt a blow by withdrawing DFQF for our RMG and frozen food exports.  Its chief on 13 July simply told the Bangladesh delegation in Brussels that don’t take things for granted to fool your people. The chiefs of our various missions mostly remain busy with getting their children admitted in educational institutions in England, USA or other reputable institutions elsewhere and don’t pursue their mission seriously.

Millions of Bangladeshis angered by record unemployment, soaring inflation and chronic fuel and power shortages take to the streets also demanding government’s immediate resignation blaming it for letting the economy nosedive.

The same issues are behind the current turmoil in Egypt. Meantime, exports dived

while any hope of investment here is distant in teal terms. Our foreign minister Dipu Moni left the Prime Minister at Belarus for Europe to lobby for trade benefit (doing more mileage in the air for last 4 and a half years than US Air Force II used by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with highly successful shuttle diplomacy), but achieved nothing. Meanwhile, she again goes to Delhi to resolve the Gordian knots between India and Bangladesh, which could not be settled by our Prime Minister and India’s Dr. Manmohan Singh and Pronob Mookherjee. We all are seemingly beating about the bush as the boot is on other foot. After serial defeats in Mayoral polls, non-supply of power to us by India, TIB reports published in newspapers, ministers at loggerheads with each other, Row over Grameen Bank (GB) between Finance Minister AMA Muhith and Government Vs Prof Yunus, the administration is demoralized.

Before Eid, prices have leapt very high, none knows who is in charge, and the establishment managers of our economy are starved of a balancing act to heal an economy which is torpedoed as if by a Tomahawk missile. In fact it is on life-support now. Change of guards in most important ministries have thrown the country from the frying pan into the fire itself. GB issue and refusing to ink the Ticfa during the last visit of Hillary to Bangladesh, by and large, have soured our relation with the US, among other things.

What the AL had pledged in 2008 does not sit well with its type of governance. Going by LA Times of 13th last month, the way the top US Diplomats including even Miss Wendy of US State Department and past WB Country Director Ms Christie were treated when they all insisted on a compromise between the Government and the Opposition for holding a credible election, was far from any etiquete in diplomatic lexicon and all these in a nutshell were sent to the White House.

If the AL wants victory in the next election, the grassroots has to be taken into confidence and re-organized because its foundation is based on it in early 50s; palace intrigues in Gonobhaban won’t do. Mega (undoable) projects are mega failures. A member in the AL’s secretarial wing suddenly emerging since last year routinely lambasts BNP leaders whenever and anywhere something goes wrong whereas those leaders are Barristers practising in Lincoln’s Inn, ex-CSP officers and Ph Ds, and not unschooled Mexican Cowboys. His vulgar language is unprintable. However, many other projects for social development also are plagued by fund crunch and land acquisition problem due to vociferous opposition from locals.

Actually Bangladesh faces a host of economic problems that the embattled ruling coalition is too keen to address before facing voters in the general election slated for Jan next. FDI is seen as vital to reducing the deficit and spurring growth, as well as setting up factories, building roads to improve the country’s creaking infrastructure and providing jobs for its millions of young people. Our current account deficit, ¬the broadest measure of trade ¬for the full fiscal year ended June is at a record high, mainly from import of huge goods for quick rental PPs and weakest exports. We always say we provide best incentives to woo FDI but never mention about our political stability and notoriously corrupt bureaucracy. Our relation with WB, IMF is at the lowest ebb because of the alleged Padma Bridge graft. It is said winners of civic polls are corrupt and terrorists but Naysayers question if the AL elected people in all past polls were angels as their speed-money-mongering attitude is now openly mentioned uncharitably everywhere loudly from parks to parlours.

Our democracy sans a justice-based system cannot be a panacea for all ills.  Sullivan, the veteran prosecutor of the International Crime Tribunal (ICT) trying the war criminals who massacred thousands of Bosnian Muslims in Srevelinka is highly critical of our ICT proceedings dictated by remote control which has put judges of its own choice unilaterally.  Meantime, suddenly awakening Gonojagoron Mancha at Shahbagh blocking public roads and Hefazat comments, BCS results fuelled new dimensions to an already volatile country.  People are presently more interested in getting gas, safe water and electricity rather than being frustrated by soap operas like Tarek’s alleged money laundering or where reportedly Abul Hossain’s thousands of crores have landed.  Far more dangerous is that there is no rule of law. None bothers about rising population and socio-economic mayhem. Just for one instance, a visit to a government clinic gives a clear picture of health situation in the whole country.

In this holy Ramzan amid the monsoon musings and a murky mist of mourning and grief for the thousands of lives lost in a midnight blitzkrieg with high temperature in C and humidity in percentage, it is time to take stock of the whole situation which boils down to the question as to how we escape from the economic hole through a debate between austerity and a stimulus; as a balanced budget and shrinking national debts will fetch investor confidence. But, first we immediately put austerity measures in place for only HI of FY14. Going with the Keynesians, recovery requires fiscal stimulus which an unorthodox monetary policy can’t actuate since trust is too low for commercial banks to create credit on the scale needed to return to full employment and the pre-crisis growth trend, after whatever cash BB pours into them.

Even Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize winner, now in Princeton, would like expansion of fiscal deficits instead of shrinking them. It’s an old-fashioned Keynesian reason we advocate, because we suffer from a deficiency of aggregate demand, the multiplier being positive and that’s the way to reduce public and private debts to boost growth in national income now. But the arguments between austerity and the Keynesians over how to encourage sustained recovery intersects with another debate. Simply put in a layman’s language, what kind of post-recovered economy do we want? This is exactly where economics becomes political economy. Has the government got one such? The truth is that if economics were only about profit maximization, it would be just another name for trade and business administration. It is quintessentially a social discipline or science, as Alfred Nobel rightly named it for Nobel Award, and society has other means of cost accounting beside market prices.

Again, leaving matters of crying need and the trash box, what are we hell-bent on opening more fronts, particularly now, when inconvenient truths emerging from the woodworks is a possible Sword of Damocles? Is it for the much-vilified masses to smell roses? We’re also barking up the wrong tree. To resolve Indo-Bangla imbroglios, Delhi visits are comical as the trump card is with Mamata of Kolkata. One of our minority ministers should first talk to her. She is a pretty difficult customer. The issues are: Kolkata-Dhaka railway train service, electricity to Bangldesh through Paschimbangla grid, land boundary agreement but 7 sisters will lose a chunk of territory, stopping the Tipaimukh barrage with dam, reservoir and irrigation, Teesta river water sharing, pacifying her that more water is not coming to Bangladesh during summer or lean period via Ganges Barrage whose water supply she wants to examine and if unsatisfied she threatened to alter the course. She is beyond Delhi’s control and does not care a fig about Sonia, Manmohan or Chidambaran etc.

The coming general election will be a do-or-die battle as the next one is likely to have a minus 2 formula. Both ruling and opposition parties need to field well-educated candidates to contest it, be it under CG or an interim government under the incumbent PM, an issue still under the blanket of uncertainty. Poll survey indicates, neither the 14 party alliance will have a cakewalk as its few achievements are overshadowed by its authoritarian administration killing few thousands which is no hogwash, nor will the 18 party alliance, but a lesser evil, have a walkover.  Truly its vote bank has the obesity now as swing or undecided eligible voters will not waste their precious votes after long 5 years by casting votes for one-man or signboard parties, but for BNP, by default and not design.

Besides, most Muslims, Buddhists, old females, upper class educated voters and grassroots people, factions of all Islamic parties will vote for BNP in droves.  That said, however, if BNP comes with flying colours, it should act as per lessons it has learnt from past. In the event of the AL not meeting its Waterloo, it should not trash the opposition, but rather give it the democratic space and work together for the people’s welfare after burying all the hatchets.  But if accidentally it fails to win, it should concede the defeat in good grace instead of crying Shukhya Kaarchupee (subtle rigging) and reject the people’s mandate and then boycott the JS sine die. People still expect a politics of no revenge snowballing into a plethora of catastrophes. Army deployment with magisterial powers is a must to check ballot boxes in all polling centres and keep the musclemen at bay if not arresting them.

Source: Weekly Holiday