While the paper is based on the research of a group of geoscientists with upscale technologies like GPS, the interpretations as published in the paper have been overly conjectural. For example, the position of the plate boundary shown as mega thrust has been shifted west to a significant distance and is placed to run right underneath Dhaka. There is no geological evidence to justify the existence the mega thrust running through the Bengal plain and Dhaka city as shown in the paper. It is only a conjecture that geoscientists may put forward. More importantly, making predictions of an unprecedented mega-disaster based on such conjectural elements is not acceptable.
The report quoted one of the co-authors of the paper, an academician in Bangladesh as follows:
“Mud that has accumulated some 12 miles (19 km) deep in the delta of the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers could shake like gelatin, and liquefy in many places, sucking in buildings, roads and people,” said co-author in a statement.
The above statement is not only unrealistic, but sounds like end-of-times fantasy. None of the deep oil and gas wells drilled in the Ganges Brammaputra delta encountered 19 kilometers of mud. In the subsurface the rocks down to about 5 meters were drilled, and these were found to be hard rock layers, including alternating sandstone and mudstone (shale). Liquefaction is a fact of earthquake geology, but not to the extent the statement suggests.
Bangladesh is positioned in the vicinity of a tectonic plate junction and is therefore likely to be more earthquake prone than an average area. But the report has been monstrously over-emphatic in its judgement of risk in Dhaka city. The suggestion that “giant earthquake would make Dhaka unlivable” is also overly pessimistic and gives a negative signal to an aspiring mass of people who are struggling to be industrially prosperous.
We appreciate academic research which links important national issues, disaster-related or otherwise, but one should be more cautious in publicly commenting on the results and interpretation of scientific research. Scientific hypothesis or conjectures should not be translated into a pointed practical prediction that would spread panic among public unnecessarily.
The author is a Professor in the Department of Geology, University of Dhaka
Source: bdnews24
I find the article superficial. Either the author is over concerned about the panic the new findings may generate or he is simply seeking limelight or barracking for the property development lobby.
We all know that even without a major earthquake Dhaka is very rapidly becoming unlivable and dysfunctional city as a result of unplanned and substandard development. There is no easy solution even for that, without razing a large part of those hapazzard developments and rebuilding the city. Off course Bangladesh neither have will or resources to undertake such a mega rebuilding project. So, as usual, we ignore what is inevitable.
Then, there are many recent studies that also indicated imminent earthquake risks from any of the major faults in and around Bangladesh. And it has been already recognised and accepted that a 7.5 quake around Dhaka will destroy 72 thousand buildings in Dhaka. What will be left of Dhaka?
How will Dhaka rescue those millions? we know our capacity from RANA PLAZA – one building took three months with all our emergency management resources plus army savar division.
How will Dhaka function with 72 thousand destroyed buildings, 100 of thousand deads, millions of wounded AND blocked roads and golis. How the millions of survivors will be supplied with life sustaining potable water and food?
Now we dismiss the new finding of a mega thrust, without any counter scientific data. Where did the upper end of the Sumatra fault disappear then? If it has not passed under Daka, then where does it lie? If it is not a subduction mega thrust, then do you have any evidence to prove that it is just plate sliding? as we always assumed based on our uneventful recorded earthquake history.
If we do not have counter scientific data and analysis to refute the new findings, then we should panic and try to survive as many of us possible.
Dhaka is already doomed, even without an earthquake due to our short termism. It has been rated 2nd most unlivable city in the world after war torn Damascus, without taking earthquake into consideration.
Long before it has has been identified as the second most earthquake vulnerable mega city after Tehran.
Now with the new findings, we may as well begin abandoning this mess called Dhaka city, so atleast some of us can survive.