Faruque Ahmed
The country is poised to face serious destabilisation following a highly volatile turn in the political landscape centring the government move to hold the election sidetracking the main opposition in one hand and the preparation to execute Jamaat leader Abdul Mollah on the other.
Observers feel it may slide to unthinkable spate of violence as the Jamaat-Sbibir men may go berserk, as they have warned, in retaliation to Mollah’s execution which may take place any time now. Meanwhile, BNP-led 18-party opposition has threatened fresh blockade programes from next week to continue at least nine days to stop the governmentfrom holding the one-sided election.
It may then give the call for a countrywide non-cooperation movement asking people to denounce the autocratic regime and come to the streets to save democracy.
The nation witnessed hectic efforts by UN assistant secretary general Oscar Fernandez Taranco who spent six days in the capital last week and sought to broker a deal for what he said to open the way to a ‘free, fair and inclusive non-violent election.’ He said elections must be acceptable to the people of Bangladesh and it requires that all parties must be able to take part in it on a level playing field.
But it appears that Taranco mission faded away even before he had left the city. Taranco’s request to meet the Prime Minister before his departure was reportedly turned down as he was annoyed with his high profile movement from one quarter to another meeting leaders and trying to bring parties on a table for the much hyped dialogue.
The Prime Minister was also reportedly critical from the moment Taranco met the Jamaat leaders at a city hotel. The UN envoy however gave a smiling face and his attempt to mediation ended in initial success as he was able to bring the senior leaders of both the parties to join the first ever direct talks in his presence.
But this may be his only success and he failed to say before he left about what may be the final outcome, except that the parties have agreed to sit on a third session to end the crisis. In fact Taranco was able to secure the presence of Awami League leaders to meet BNP leaders apparently after the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon had telephoned Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on Tuesday.
For a peaceful solution
He again telephoned her on Wednesday while the US secretary of state John Kerry also made a call at the same time to encourage the Prime Minister to work for a peaceful solution to the polls-time government crisis, besides voicing his concerns over government attempts to Abdul Quader Mollah.
As things are unfolding, it appears that the government is pushing the country towards a volatile situation to use the commotion of anti-Jamaat sentiment to consolidate its position before the election at a time when its popularity has plunged to below 25 per cent as some media report recently said quoting a snap poll.
Kerry has also cautioned the Prime Minister to stop Mollah execution saying such step may derail the election from taking place. But it appears that the government is going for the execution and holding of the election thus signalling a new spate of violence in the country.
Political observers believe that the UN brokered dialogue has lost its relevance as soon as Taranco left the capital. When he said “I have real concerns what we will be able to achieve, there are many challenges and the solutions depends on the political good wills of the parties,” he had in fact spoken about both sides of the coin.
Political analysts say there is no room for parallel dialogue and elections preparation at a time. As the government is moving towards election, it means it is not interested in dialogue– be it sponsored by the UN or encouraged by the USA.
In fact the control of the country’s domestic politics has already passed out to third parties’ control. The UN is trying to mediate a solution; so also the USA is working to end the crisis along with the European Union nations and other countries having close business interest with Bangladesh. The Chinese government has also made its views known on several occasions stressing for a free, fair and inclusive election in an independent environment.
Major player
Meanwhile India remains the major player behind the entire crisis as it is highly concerned about the departure of Awami League—which is a close ally of Delhi in domestic politics—from power to replace it by a BNP- led government in the event of a free, fair and credible election. They are opposed to the rise of Jamaat and other Islamist forces which they fear as fundamentalist force.
Thus a new polarization is taking place cantering the country’s election and also to influence its future. India may be trying to control Bangladesh politics as to who will come to power and who should not. It looks like a concept of limited sovereignty and a controlled democracy that may suit the big neighbour’s interest. Indian Foreign Secretary Sujatha Sing in her recent visit to Dhaka has made her government’s position clear when she requested Jatiya Party’s chief H M Ershad to take part in the polls to deny the rise of Jamaat and Islamists forces to power.
Her comment that India wants to see the participation of maximum number of parties to the polls may be thus interpreted that if BNP and its allies do not take part, India may not oppose such election to give recognition to its outcome.
Her emphasis was on continuity of democracy which may be equally interpreted as the continuity of the incumbent Awami League government to power through a farcical election.
Sujatha said elections are important to allow democratic institutions to grow and take roots. But what is missing in her statement is whether the boycott of elections by almost all political parties, except the ruling party Awani League, and the failure to hold an election which is acceptable to the vast majority people of Bangladesh will help develop democratic institutions and make them sustainable. Many people believe that if Bangladesh is to secure a peaceful transition of power through a free and credible election, India’s cooperation is highly essential. The people of Bangladesh believe there is no room for compromise to trade off the country’s sovereignty and independence. It will have India as a good neighbour but it will equally annoy the USA, China and the EU as important friends and business partners.
Anybody trying to dictate the country may only push it to the brink; that is what is happening now, but the people of the country may not be befooled for ever, analysts say.
Source: Weekly Holiday
