If our foreign minister had thought that she would be able to make headway with the two most important bilateral issues between Bangladesh and India, the land boundary agreement and the Teesta deal, during her Delhi visit, I am afraid she must have become temporarily oblivious of the term realpoltik. I hope she would realise that no country runs its foreign policy on ethical considerations, except perhaps Bangladesh.
We share her dismay and frustration at what can at best be described as an unsuccessful India policy of this government. The FM sees the matter as otherwise. The argument that the issues have at least been taken up for consideration by the AL government, not done heretofore, is achievements of sorts has merit, but when contrasted with the fact that we did not play our diplomatic cards right in using the other bilateral issues to our advantage, the final outcome is really nil. And not surprisingly, she sees it also from an exclusive partisan prism — the non-resolution of the issue influencing the outcome of the next parliamentary election.
The Bangladesh High Commissioner to India made a virtue out of the unsuccessful visit suggesting that it was a private visit and therefore the question of “success” or “unsuccess” did not arise.
The optimists do not see this as the be all and end all of the Bangladesh-India relations, while the pessimists /realists feel that these issues are going to affect the future course of bilateral relationship. The question is whether the AL government will feel obliged to revaluate and readjust its India policy. If a recent poll in India showed that Indians trust Bangladesh, one need not be a Nostradamus to predict the result if a similar poll were to be held in Bangladesh regarding how Bangladeshis felt about India’s reliability.
It needs restating that Bangladesh foreign policy has not only been Indo-centric, it has been predominated by India where our main efforts have been to devise ways and means to live and survive with India around our three sides. Regrettably, the bilateral relationship has been regime-centric which has prevented the formulation of a coherent India policy cutting across party line.
However, there is much to learn from Dipu Moni’s unsuccessful trip.
Firstly, resolution of Bangladesh-India bilateral issues have come to be heavily dependent on the dynamics of India’s internal politics, where a government without required majority in the parliament will be unable to carry through its international commitments.
Secondly, it has been made amply clear, at least in the case of Bangladesh, that it shall have to deal with not only the government in the centre in India but also the major political parties and some state governments. Our question is should that be the case? And in that context calling at the door of the other political parties by our foreign minister was not called for. As for the land boundary agreement, the BJP has said that it will not support it in the parliament.
Thirdly, national interest dominates all other considerations. For India, personal equation at leadership level does not necessarily add speed to the process of resolution of bilateral issues, and in spite of the ‘Hilsha‘ and ‘Jamdani‘ diplomacy the Indian opposition is a definite quantity which has to be taken in to consideration by the Indian government.
Fourthly, we act on the promise of our neighbour, India acts on the reality on ground where public opinion matters. We showed our magnanimity by conceding many of India’s demands even to the extent of causing inconvenience to ourselves, and damaging our own infrastructure. We allowed passage of oversized containers virtually free, despite public criticism. Only a few months ago, a shipment of rice from western part of India to the east across our land territory was allowed free of cost on the pretext that it was done on humanitarian grounds. One was not aware of any humanitarian situation obtaining in the Indian northeast at that time.
Recently, the FM talked about the many gains in the diplomatic front after she came under media criticism for her expansive foreign tours without substantive outcome. But if ever the foreign ministry were to bring out a booklet on its achievements of the last five years one would be extremely hard put to include these two issues on the list of successes.
Successful foreign policy is a force multiplier for the nation since it furthers ones national interest. One wonders whether that is the case in respect of Bangladesh policy vis a vis India.
The writer is Editor Op-Ed and Strategic Affairs, The Daily Star.
Source: The Daily Star
