Shamsuddin Ahmed
Maldives is set for presidential election on September 7. The tiny Islamic country comprising 1192 coral islands in the Indian Ocean is indeed crucial to security interest of India, especially as China has continued to expand its ‘soft power influence’ in Maldives. Needless to say that Delhi would invest efforts to get its chosen man come to power so that it can maintain its sphere of influence.
Four candidates are in the election race. They are Gasim Ibrahim of Jumhoree Party, incumbent president Dr Mohammad Waheed, who runs as an independent, Abdullah Yameen of Progressive Party and former president Mohammad Nasheed of Maldivan Democratic Party.
Nasheed, who was ousted in early 2011, still enjoys Delhi’s considerable support. The government of Waheed had prosecuted him in a number of criminal cases, ostensibly to debar him from contesting any election. He was about to be arrested again and thrown behind the bar but India’s intense diplomatic pressure saved him. Recently he visited Delhi to seek renewed blessings.
Acknowledging the importance of India’s support, Abdulla Yameen leading a strong team also visited Delhi last week and met with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Yameen is half-brother of former president Abdul Gayoom.
Maldives watchers say Nasheed has had a good campaign, while his successor current president Waheed is virtually without allies. Waheed even lost the extremist ideologue, Hassan Saeed, from his coalition. Saeed along with other leaders of Adhaalath Party have now tied up with a resort owner Gasim Ibrahim to form the Jumhoree Alliance. Saeed is Gasim’s running mate. The new coalition consists of Jumhoree Party of Gasim Ibrahim, Dhivehi Qaumee Party (DQP) led by Saeed and the religious conservative Adhaalath Party (AP).
Both DQP and AP were part of Waheed’s ‘Forward with Nation’ coalition, but abandoned him. India is not fond of Waheed either, admitting to a serious “trust deficit” with the president, particularly after India’s infrastructure major GMR’s unceremonious exit from the country. But India’s message to all is that it would be happy to work with all as long as elections in Maldives were free and fair. Until recently India worked hard to ensure that Nasheed was allowed to run. That is now beyond doubt.
In the first democratic election in 2008, Mohammed Nashed was elected president with blessings from Delhi. But within two years he was ousted by police-army uprising backed by popular anti-Nasheed movement for his anti-constitutional, pro-Indian activities.
Influenced by India’s secularism, Nasheed was accused of promoting other religions in the country where non-Muslims are not allowed citizenship. The coup leaders had installed Mohammad Waheed in power. Responding to protesters, the government of Waheed has scrapped the agreement with Indian construction giant GMR for upgrading and holding the3 management contract of the Male International Airport and expelled GMR at the fag end of last year. A Chinese company was given the work of upgrading the airport at a far less cost to the dismay and displeasure Delhi. The agreement with GMR was signed during Nasheed’s regime.
In fact, India will be called upon to play even more delicately subtle and important roles as its smaller neighbours go in for elections and new dispensations, the Asia Monitor wrote last week.
Lesson from Bhutan
While India’s national security adviser Shivshankar Menon and foreign secretary Sujatha Singh were the first to call on the new government of Bhutan, it was a signal from New Delhi that they were willing to make amends for India’s tactless earlier actions, including withdrawal of subsidy on fuel oil supply to Bhutan just before the recent parliamentary election that had earned peoples’ displeasure. As a result, the pro-Indian party lost the election.
Admittedly India used to spreading its tentacles during the election in all neighbouring countries in a bid to secure a government that would protect her interest.
Nepal is set for election to the second constituent assembly in November next, as the first one elected in 2008 had failed to write the constitution for the new republic. It is widely alleged that the election was planned in Delhi to get her chosen people in power.
More than 30 smaller parties and nationalist groups led by Mohan Baidya of Communist Party of Nepal (CPN-Maoist) have declared they would not allow holding ‘predestined polls’ and if needed by revolting with arms. Exposing the alleged Indian design weekly Telegraph of Nepal bluntly said on August 20, “RAW is India’s notorious intelligence agency involved in creating unrest in its neighbouring countries.”
India’s security interest in Maldives is no less important. Trading of minerals and energy worth billions of dollars every year pass near the Maldives, which is strategically located astride the major sea lanes in the India Ocean. Indian security experts have accused China of harbouring ambitions to set up a submarine base in Morao island of Maldives.
Source: Weekly Holiday
