Shamsuddin Ahmed
The perceived security threat from rising China has brought Japan and India closer. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Tokyo this week (4-day trip ending September 3) and signed a defence pact. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pledged $35 billion to India over the next five years for much needed infrastructure development, especially along the disputed border with China.
Signing of anticipated civil nuclear deal, similar to one India has with the United States, has been deferred for the time being, but the two prime ministers expressed hope officials from both sides will narrow down differences for early signing the deal so that they can further strengthen the strategic partnership.
Analysts say that armed with a defence pact and generous funds from Tokyo, Narendra Modi may now adopt ‘muscular’ approach to its neighbours, especially Pakistan and China. He will treat Pakistan differently and less willing to make concessions until there is an end to what he has called cross border terrorism, and dealing with border dispute with China. Modi will bolster India’s military strength for a credible deterrence.
Indo-Japan defence pact
Japan has no regular armed forces, forbidden since the defeat in the World War II. It has Maritime Self-defence Forces. The United States of America provides security umbrella to Japan. It is believed that US has coordinated with Delhi and Tokyo in signing the defence pact and civil nuclear deal aiming at rebalancing Asian power and to contain China. Washington is likely to provide generous military assistance to India, in fact it has offered to meet the purpose. The Indo-Japan defence pact under the Special Strategic and Global Partnership provides sea lane cooperation, joint drills between India’s Navy and the Maritime Self-Defense Forces of Japan and the export of the Japanese US-2 amphibious aircraft.
The USA, Japan and India see the China’s String of Pearls, a catchy phrase for Beijing’s ambitions in the Indian Ocean a threat to the region. They view the Chinese objective is to gain access to port facilities in countries such as Sri Lanka and Pakistan for merchantmen and PLA Navy warships. China courted diplomatic ties with South Asian governments, bankrolled seaport development at sites such as Gwadar in southwestern Pakistan, and proffered economic and infrastructure assistance of various types to sweeten bargains for access and in turn for energy security. Such overtures appeared ominous to Indian strategists who worry that China would assemble a network of full-blown naval bases to project power into South Asia much as Western sea powers did during the heyday of imperialism.
There is no doubt about the commonality of interest of USA, Japan and India in maintaining peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific and preventing the emergence of a China centric Asia. But India is unlikely to blindly follow US strategic calculations in the region. In strategic terms, India is likely to seek to avoid unnecessarily needling China with any explicit or implicit containment strategies. Delhi will not be a party to any quadrilateral or multilateral initiatives that have containment of China in mind, viewed an Indian analyst.
A move against China?
The Indo-Japan defence pact, perceived a move against China, may have prompted President Xi Jinping to visit Pakistan and Sri Lanka and also to India in a few weeks. The schedule is being finalized. Beijing indicated that Xi will travel to Pakistan, go to India and later Sri Lanka. It will be his first visit to the sub-continent after taking over as President last year. In recent years Sri Lanka has become China’s significant ally in the Indian Ocean region in the backdrop of China’s plans to build a ‘Maritime Silk Road’.
The Indo-Japan deals have no doubt earned displeasure and suspicion from China. Beijing sees that the two countries would collaborate over the sea lanes vital to China’s supply chain. China despises Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for his stand over the East China Sea dispute with Beijing and calls him a “troublemaker”. Beijing also accused Abe of “dividing” China and India.
Writing on Modi’s Japan visit, China’s state run daily Global Times said Indo-Japan ties face “huge uncertainty” in view of rise of BRICS and emerging Sino-Indian cooperation. Beijing’s improving maritime strategies and the development of China-India strategic relations will inevitably exert far-reaching influence upon Japan’s strategic resources, channels and markets. Consequently, dividing China and India has become a key issue for Abe, said the daily adding, “Tokyo and New Delhi must consider the coexistence of China, Japan and the US in the region when promoting their security cooperation.”
Beijing’s strategic move
In a rare conciliatory statement from the top level of Chinese leadership, the Asahi Shimbun reported that Vice President Li Yuanchao told a group of Japanese parliamentarians on Sept 2 that it is required for both Japan and China to lay minor differences aside and aim for unity on the main points. Li acknowledged the negative economic impact of the ongoing dispute in the East China Sea. He said China has put a high priority on risk management in the sea and the air. Similar conciliatory course may be taken during President Xi’s impending visit to India.
It is obvious that during his upcoming visit to Pakistan, Chinese President Xi Jinping will discuss the pros and cons of the Indo-Japan defence pact and civil nuclear deal and how much it could impact upon the Chinese vision in the region.
It is said he will lay the foundation stone of Lahore-Karachi motorway and a couple of power generation projects. Officials of the two countries would also give final touches to the proposed Pakistan-China railway link during his stay in Pakistan. The two countries are finalizing plans to build an Economic Corridor between China’s Xinjiang and Pakistan’s Gwadar Port which is being developed by Chinese firms. China has pledged 32 billion dollars to Pakistan, to be invested in next seven years in various projects for infrastructure building and power, reported daily Dawn.
Source: Weekly Holiday
