Food grain production is likely to fall short of the target of 3.64 crore tonnes this fiscal year, for a drop in acreage during the aus and boro crop seasons and a spread of wheat diseases in the southwest districts.
The projection was made in a recently published report of the Food Planning and Monitoring Unit (FPMU) under the food ministry.
Total cereal production will be slightly lower than last year’s production of 3.6 crore tonnes, said FPMU in its Bangladesh Food Situation Report, a quarterly publication.
The FPMU’s prediction comes after boro acreage fell short of the Department of Agricultural Extension’s (DAE) target by 1.15 lakh hectares to 46.85 lakh hectares, the lowest since fiscal 2008-09, according to the DAE and Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) data.
The DAE targeted to ensure cultivation of boro, which accounts for more than half of total annual cereal production, on 48 lakh hectares for production of 1.9 crore tonnes of rice during the current harvesting season.
The FPMU, citing a fall in the area under cultivation from the DAE’s target, said: “Assuming that last year’s yield rate will be maintained, the boro production target may not be achieved.”
Agricultural officials and seed sellers earlier said many farmers switched to other crops, such as wheat, potato and maize, frustrated by low rice prices in the past couple of seasons.
Farmers failed to recover their costs of production owing to low paddy prices.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) last month said boro acreage might decline, and farmers will switch to more profitable crops.
The USDA said the total boro output may be 1.86 crore tonnes in the current season, down from 1.91 crore tonnes last year.
It also said, although the government provides subsidy on various inputs, such as seeds and fertilisers to encourage farmers to grow more aus rice, many farmers prefer to grow jute because of higher profit margins.
Boro is the second rice crop after aus that registered a decline in acreage as farmers shifted to other summer vegetables for higher profits.
The area under aus declined to 10.18 lakh hectares in the current fiscal year, down from 10.45 lakh hectares in 2014-15. Aus output fell to 22.89 lakh tonnes this fiscal year against the target of 24.75 lakh tonnes.
Total rice production during the aus season last year was 23.28 lakh tonnes, according to the BBS.
The only exception was for the aman rice crop. Both area and rice output rose in the immediate past season owing to increased plantation, particularly of high-yield varieties, said officials of BBS earlier.
Total rice production during the aman season rose 2 percent to a new high of nearly 1.35 crore tonnes but remained lower than the DAE’s target. The BBS is yet to finalise its production figure of wheat, which suffered from disease outbreaks in the southwest districts.
The FPMU, referring to the BBS, said although wheat production received some setback in those regions, production will be closer to the target.
“In view of the circumstances pertaining to production of different types of rice and wheat, it is expected that total food grain production in 2015-16 will fall short of target and will also be slightly lower than last year’s production level,” said the FPMU in its latest report.
With aus and aman, the total rice output this fiscal year stands at 1.57 crore tonnes against the DAE’s target of 1.6 crore tonnes.
Source: The Daily Star
