Bangladesh should not take any decision right now over the current situation of Myanmar after the neighboring country’s military declared a one-year state of emergency following reported arrest of civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi and other senior officials on Monday.
Aung San Suu Kyi’s stance and the internal politics of Myanmar are not clear.
The matter of declaring a one-year state of emergency is suspicious. It is also a matter of thinking whether it is a part of a drama.
Of course we have concern over the Rohingya issue. We have to see whether the western countries impose embargo on Myanmar after the military coup. It is also to be noted whether the western countries set conditions for Rohingya repatriation.
An eye must be kept on what steps India and Japan take. We have seen the US has taken a tough stance on the Myanmar situation. Even Donald Trump boldly talked about the Myanmar issue. But it is very important to ascertain the position of India and Japan, two strong countries in the Pacific Ocean.
It does not seem China will take a stance against the military government after the coup. However, pressure can be put on China if India and Japan become active. If the western world and big neighbour India unite, there will be a scope to say that China is assisting Myanmar.
Bangladesh repeatedly says there is no effective democracy in Myanmar. Bangladesh has been calling for pressure to be created on Myanmar as the military is the main actor. This is now proven. Now Bangladesh will have scope to tell the international community that the military rule is going there. So Bangladesh can reiterate its old demand to create pressure on them.
However, there is no link between the Rohingya issue and the military rule in Myanmar. Our relation is with the Myanmar state. We are involved in inter-state discussions with Myanmar over the Rohingya issue. This should not be shifted after the change of rulers. Repatriation of Rohingya was mentioned in the written agreement.
It does not seem China will take a stance against the military government after the coup. However, pressure can be put on China if India and Japan become active. If the western world and big neighbour India unite, there will be a scope to say that China is assisting Myanmar.
Meanwhile, the US strongly protested against the military coup in Myanmar. India has expressed concern. It is to be observed what they do after these diplomatic formalities. Their activities must be visible. Scope has been created to impose embargo on Myanmar. Bangladesh should avail the opportunity. We have to be active in our efforts to see that the Rohingya issue is included as a condition in the embargo.
The emergency will continue one year. Certainly we should not sit idle. Bangladesh must not budge an inch from its stance taken on the Rohingya repatriation issue. An opportunity has been created to strongly apprise the international community about Bangladesh’s stance.
Professor Imtiaz Ahmed teaches international relations at Dhaka University.
*This article, originally published in Prothom Alo online edition in Bangla, has been rewritten in English by Rabiul Islam.
