Ashfaqur Rahman
Now that the chief election commissioner has told the press that preparations are underway to hold the national elections, speculations are rife. Questions are again being asked as to whether the elections would take place under a caretaker government or an interim government? Will the members of this government be technocrats or elected persons? Who will head the government — the present prime minister or someone else?
The rumour mills are churning. Yet there are still a few months before formal announcements need to be made. But consensus among the political parties on certain issues must be arrived at. So overt and covert negotiations among and between parties should take place. If negotiations fail, then what? Are we then likely to see strange comings and goings in the political arena.
However, let us imagine that elections will take place under interim arrangement and on time. Then what? How are the people likely to vote?
Now that BNP and its political allies have swept the last five city elections, the party is energised and is seriously at work at the grassroots to take advantage of the mood swing of voters. It is thinking of pushing for victory in the national elections against the governing AL. How practical is this proposition? In the 2008 general elections, AL had won 230 parliamentary seats in the Assembly out of the 300 seats. BNP could take only 30 seats. So can the tables be turned in favour of BNP?
Political pundits are now scouring the country to find clues that will tell them that ground realities are shifting from AL towards a sweep for BNP. But it is still not clear that the slide has started. A massive win in city elections may not necessarily translate into a win in the national elections. The electoral dynamics in Bangladesh are quite complicated, and it has been seen many times in the past that the electorate often looks deep into the failings of the party at the national level in order to judge a candidate’s reliability and ability to deliver.
The performance of the government is now up for scrutiny by the general public. Only the AL die-hards and their supporters are likely to absolve the party from the mistakes committed during the years in power. The youth will be playing a determining role as to who will win the next elections. They constitute one fourth of the total electorate. Of the 85 million working age people in the country, 41% are the youth. It is their perception of the performance of the AL that will seal the fate of that party.
Let us briefly see what are the issues agitating the minds of the voters. The list is not comprehensive, but it does provide an idea of what the ruling AL must attend to in the run-up to elections. The voters are waiting, like the proverbial tiger, to pounce once the electoral cage is opened. With a new cluster of issues the hunger of the tiger will remain whetted. How long AL will be able to ride this tiger before it is tamed is now a matter of serious concern.
Some of the determining factors before the elections could be:
* The compromise formula that AL and BNP may craft for holding the next elections;
* Poverty reduction efforts of the government;
* Corruption scandals;
* Price rise of food and non-food items during the AL years;
* Success or failure of the government in education, health, disaster management, agriculture, manpower export, remittance, law and order situation and containing terrorism and religious extremism.
People are going to look closely at whether they are better off today than when AL took power in 2009.
As for BNP, there is a cluster of issues which the voter is expected to evaluate and how BNP has handled them.
* Whether BNP has played a positive role in ensuring that voting will be free and fair. It would also look at BNP’s role in smoothening the way to a compromise formula to hold the elections;
* What is BNP’s final stance regarding the trial of war criminals and their punishment;
* To what extent BNP will be supporting the religious movements within the country. Will it play the religious card all the way?
* What is in the BNP election manifesto? Will it move on with development activities which were initiated by the AL regime, or is it likely to throw them out of the window;
* Will BNP use the India card in the elections and show the failure of AL in obtaining Bangladesh’s due, as promised by India.
The remaining months before the elections are therefore critical for both the parties. For the present, the light for AL is changing from green to amber. It could very well turn red, if the party is not able to gauge the mood of the tiger.
The prime minister, on her return from Belarus, went straight into a discussion with her political heavyweights. But how far will such pep talks help AL? The divisions within her party, the shenanigans by her student and youth wings, the corruption and inefficiencies of her administration need to be put in check.
As regards BNP, it also has to repair the rotting props which are holding up the façade of unity within its ranks. It has to devise a strategy to hold on to the gains made in the recent city elections. Now that BNP has succeeded in many respects in putting pressure on AL about a caretaker government, it may have to see that the forthcoming elections are free and fair.
The tiger is lurking dangerously close to the election door. Once it is let free, both BNP and AL have to ride it, or succumb to it. The tiger would feed on the succulent meat of the failures of either party. It is always the people who have the last say.
The writer is a former ambassador and a commentator on current affairs.
E-mail: [email protected]
Source: The Daily Star
