Since the first case of coronavirus was detected in Bangladesh on 8 March, a total of 218 patients have tested positive while 20 people have died.
Coronavirus has spread to 17 districts and 52 areas in Dhaka have been locked down. The government has announced a general holiday to ensure social distancing and prevent spread of the deadly disease.
Analysing the trend of infection in different countries, including China, the USA, the UK, Spain and France, the rate of infection increased just before and after the first detection of the case. Bangladesh is now at that stage.
The matter has been clear after the statements from the top level of the state.
News agency BSS said in a video conference with the officials of Chattogram and Sylhet division on Tuesday, prime minister Sheikh Hasina said, “There is a trend of increasing coronavirus patients as it has increased worldwide. The month of April is crucial for us. We have to be cautious.”
People know about the coronavirus situation from Institute of Epidemiology Disease Control and Research (IEDCR).
Speaking to Prothom Alo, IEDCR director Mirzady Sebrina said the situation of infection is now at a critical stage. It can be said that the country is climbing to the fourth stage from the third stage, she added.
The fourth stage of infection means many people will be infected and many patients have to go to hospital. And many people will die.
Talking about the preparation, Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) director general Abul Kalam Azad said like all countries Bangladesh is behind the virus.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) has divided the coronavirus infection into four stages.
The country where not a single patient is detected falls in the first stage. Under the second stage, returnees test positive for coronavirus and one or two are infected through them. Third stage means the infection is limited to certain areas. Under the fourth stage, the infection spreads widely among the communities.
On 8 March, Bangladesh declared there is a coronavirus patient in Bangladesh. Through this announcement, Bangladesh reaches the second stage of infection. The infected people were returnees. This is called locally infection.
IEDCR kept saying some people are being infected through returnees.
But two weeks ago, a person, who had no history of foreign travel and contact with returnees, was found to be infected with coronavirus at Tolarbagh area in the capital.
A question was raised whether coronavirus spreads in the community.
IEDCR director Meerjady Sabrina said Bangladesh entered the third stage on 5 April. Coronavirus spreads in The capital’s Tolarbagh and Bashabo, Narayanganj, Madaripur and Gaibandah.
Besides, infected patients have been detected in Jamalpur, Chattogram, Chuadanga, Cumilla, Cox’s Bazar, Gazipur, Moulvibazar, Narsingdhi, Rangpur, Shariatpur and Sylhet.
Many physicians and experts think coronavirus spreads widely. The exact number could not be known how many people have been infected with coronavirus. The scale of sample collections and tests is still limited.
Former vice chancellor of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University Nazrul Islam said as per available information of infection, the coronavirus speads widely.
Meerjady Sabrina said the technical committee for COVID-19 will decide whether coronavirus is at 4th stage or not.
Still tests are being conducted very little in the country. A total of 4,289 samples have been tested in a country with 170 million people. Of them, 164 patients have been detected. Samples are being tested in 14 labs. DGHS is unable to collect samples from across the country. Moreover, there is a question of quality of samples.
A total of 679 samples have been tested in the last 24 hours. IEDCR has tested 157 samples and 30 patients have been detected. Rest 522 samples have been tested in 13 labs and 11 patients have been detected. The rate of detection is only 2 per cent.
Some samples collected from districts and upazila could not be tested as those were not collected as per guideline.
However, DGHS DG Abul Kalam Azad said there is a system of controlling quality of samples. The samples which were not collected as per guideline were not tested, he added.
The government has fixed nine hospitals for treating coronavirus patients. There are 1330 beds in these hospitals. The serious patients would need ICU.
There are less than 1200 ICU in the public and private sectors. People from all sectors fear how the government will tackle the patients.
Non-government Child Health Research Foundation executive director Samir Shaha said there is no scope that the country is ahead of the virus.
Member of pandemic affairs preparation committee advisory council Mahmudur Rahman admits the worsening situation.
He said, “At this moment Bangladesh and virus are at parallel levels.
He said the government step of social distancing is timely, but this has to be strengthened.
Experts said the decision on leave from 26 March was right. But it was wrong to allow ready made garments workers to return to Dhaka and this has raised the risk of infection.
IEDCR consultant Mustak Hossain has given a different opinion. He said Bangladesh has taken the steps earlier at what steps the country should have taken as per WHO guideline. The rate of infection will slow. If the number of infections increases, this will not put pressure on the hospitals.
DGHS director general Abul Kalam Azad said, “The virus is so deadly, there is no scope to proceed ahead of it.”
He said the detection, isolation and treatment are being done after the infection. However, steps have been taken to prevent the spread of the disease.
* This report, originally published in Prothom Alo print edition, has been rewritten in English by Rabiul Islam.
