Amma, Behenji and Didi: A tale of three kingmakers

Three ladies could literally hold the keys to the Red Fort in the 2014 Indian Lok Sabha elections. They may make or unmake the BJP led National Democratic Alliance or Indian National Congress (INC) led United Progressive Alliances’ dreams of coming to power at the centre.

The final outcome of the elections may not be determined by the clash of personalities and the projected charisma of Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi. The diverse and heterogeneous composition of the world’s most populous democracy has resulted in an ever-increasing clout of the regional parties over the past two decades.

The past four elections have incontrovertibly demonstrated that neither the pan-Indian Congress nor the mainly-Hindi-heartland-based BJP can alone win a majority of 272 seats. Building a countrywide winning alliance has become a prerequisite for capturing power at the centre.

The electoral forecast looks grim for the UPA. Anti incumbency, chronic inflation, slowing down of the economy, uneven development, Marxist led insurgency, a raft of high profile corruption scandals, acrimonious spats and infighting within the ruling coalition, weak governance, a sharp rise in crimes against women and bitterly divided leadership have all served to alienate a large number of voters from the government at the centre.

The emergence of the Aam Aadmi Party and the debacle of the Congress led by the three-time Chief minister Sheila Dixit at the recent Delhi state elections is only the tip of the iceberg.

The Congress party is now engaged in a last bid attempt to salvage lost ground by projecting the young and outspoken Rahul Gandhi as the heir apparent to Dr Manmohan Singh and the panacea to all the ailments that plague the country. His connection with the common man – the aam aadmi – has been much publicised. It is also trying to engage in playing the Communal card against Modi to rally the wavering minority support (especially the Muslim voters) to their cause. It has even engaged in the highly controversial step of creating a new state Telangana to bolster its vote bank.

However, to all purposes and intent, the congress-led UPA’s dream of a third consecutive term at the office is all but over. The Indian voters seem to be in an unforgiving mood and a debacle at the polls for the Congress is in the offing. Barring a miracle, the INC will not win over 100 seats. The smaller coalition partners of the UPA government command far fewer seats and they on their own will not make a significant impact if the Indian National Congress falters at the polls.

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is poised to make significant gains in the coming elections.  Opinion polls conducted across the length and breadth of the country indicate a 190-220 seats tally for the NDA. The BJP alone is projected to win a lion’s share of the seats.

Even if we are to discount the pro-Modi bias in the big-business-run media houses, there is no denying the fact that BJP’s choice of prime ministerial candidate is paying dividend. Dubbed as the “Bikash Purush,” Narendra Modi is seen as the face of “economic growth, good governance and stability.”

The business establishment sees him as pro-market and the person capable of initiating much needed next generation reforms to add impetus to the moribund economy. The defence and foreign policy establishment pin their hopes on Modi to project a more assertive image in the region and beyond. The middle class identifies him as the person with the proven track record to reduce corruption, waste, political patronage and lawlessness.

The Hindutva adherents consider him as one of their own who will extend the saffron tide across the country. However, this does not mean that Mr Modi is not a deeply polarising figure. His role in the Gujarat riots is undeniably a blemish in the eyes of the Muslim community and many a secular minded Indians.

However, the BJP’s projection of Modi as the heir of the “Louho Purush,” the legendary Sarder Patel, is a calculated gamble to woo votes, predominantly amongst the Hindu voters. The party had even jettisoned their Bhisma Pitamaha Advani to make Modi the undisputed prime ministerial candidate from the NDA.

It refused to be coerced by their longstanding electoral ally Nitish Kumar, the popular and moderately successful chief minister of Bihar and leader of the Janata Dal (United). BJP has heavily invested in the controversial and communal Modi and have been emboldened by the electorate’s disillusionment with the apathetic performance of the UPA government.

The importance of the regional parties is based on the state-wise electoral seat distribution. Of the 30 states in the country, the six largest states account for 54% of all Lok Sabha seats and have more seats in the Lok Sabha than all the rest of the country put together. Uttar Pradesh has 80 seats, followed by Maharashtra with 48 seats; West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh each has 42 seats; Bihar has 40 seats and   Tamil Nadu 39.

Uttar Pradesh is undoubtedly the gateway to New Delhi on the basis of its sheer size and population. Historically, parties that have not done well at Uttar Pradesh have failed to stake their claims at the centre. With the rise and consolidation of regional parties – Samajwadi Party led by Mulayam Singh Yadav and his son, the present chief minister, Akhilesh Yadav and the Bahujan Samajwadi Party led by Mayawati – Uttar Pradesh has turned into a four-way contest.

The INC, BJP, BSP and SP are engaged in winning the shifting loyalties of the Brahmins, Thakurs, Baniyas, Jats, other backward castes (OBC), Dalits and Muslims. Despite Rahul Gandhi’s personal involvement in Uttar Pradesh, the INC had performed poorly in the recent state elections that brought Samajwadi party to power. It seems that the sorry tale will continue for the INC; it had already lost its upper caste votes – the Brahmins and the Thakurs – and cannot count on the votes of the 20%-strong Muslim community as a given.

The BJP will likely be able to get more votes in the Eastern part of Uttar Pradesh and the Doab region as it continues to woo the alienated Brahmins and upper caste electorate. However, their involvement in the Mujaffernagar riots has served to raise the apprehension of the Muslim voters. BJP will more likely fare poorly in Western Uttar Pradesh where memories of the riots are still fresh.

The OBC-Muslim-support-based Samajwadi party may be in for a rude shock this time around. Mulayam Singh Yadav has tentatively broached the “Third Front” with Nitish Kumar of Bihar and the Left Front. However, the party may be in for a backlash due to its poor governance. The Muslim community blames the state government for failing to do more to prevent and contain the riots and its indifference shown to the riot victims in the refugee camps.

The dark horse in the race could be Mayawati, the charismatic leader of the Dalits who may be able to expand her support base from the Dalits to the upper caste and the Muslim voters. Fondly known as “Behenji” amongst her adoring supporters, Mayawati has been chief minister of Uttar Pradesh four times and has been known to change sides often.

She is a shrewd politician who will exact her pound of flesh from the party she decides to lend her substantial support to. Mayawati aspires to be prime minister one day – greater the number of seats that her party wins in the state and more fractured the mandate at the national level, closer she might get to that goal.

Maharashtra with its tally of 48 seats will be less complex – The BJP and Shiv Sena combine seems set to win the majority of seats at the expense of the INC and Sharad Pawer-led Nationalist Congress party. However, Shiv Sena has lost quite a bit of its appeal and cohesion after the death of its founder, Bal Thakrey.

BJP may be the party that can win a substantial number of seats due to the anti-incumbency mood of the electorate. The high degree of urbanisation in Maharashtra may result in the Aam Aadmi Party of Arvind Kejriwal to win a few seats.

Mamata Banerjee, the mercurial and populist chief minister of West Bengal is poised to make a big impact in the coming elections. Affectionately called Didi by her followers, Mamata near about singlehandedly brought about an end to the Left Front’s three-decade rule.

Her party, All India Trinamool Congress, in alliance with the Congress swept the state elections in 2011. Some pundits are wont to write her off due to her increasingly authoritarian streak, frequent public outbursts and the anti-incumbency sentiment in West Bengal.

However, Mamata may yet prove the pundits wrong. She has demonstrated an uncanny ability to latch on to the winner’s bandwagon and to abandon sinking ships with haste. She has been able to cloak her astute political moves in populist rhetoric.

She made a timely exit from the UPA government after voicing her opposition to Centre’s decision to raise petrol and diesel prices and to allow Foreign Direct Investment in the retail sector. Earlier, she had forced her own party man Dinesh Trivedi to resign as the Union railway minister over plans to raise railway fares.

Mamata had also torpedoed the India-Bangladesh negotiations on the Teesta river water sharing agreement. This was nothing but a cynical move aimed to raise her image in West Bengal as an uncompromising leader who will not be coerced by the centre to act against the interests of her electorate.

Mamata plays on West Bengal’s growing feeling of political marginalisation – Bengalis love the fact that one of their own can dictate terms at the centre and does not back down in the face of opposition. Her party may capitalise on this feeling and do well in the coming elections. She has in the past been part of both the NDA and UPA Alliance.

This indicates a high degree of ideological flexibility. Both blocs will try to reach out to her despite her reputation of being a difficult ally. Mamata is also exploring a third option in the event of an indecisive electoral outcome – the Third Front with Nitish Kumar of Bihar and Naveen Patnaik of Orissa.

It seems the wily Didi is hedging her bets to obtain the maximum return. In the coming elections, she may benefit from strong support in the rural areas and small towns. Besides, her party may pick up a few seats in neighboring Tripura. On the downside, Trinamool may lose out from highly urbane Kolkata, where Mamata has alienated support due to her strong-handed and at times dictatorial approach.

The BJP and the AAP may put up a good showing at Trinamool’s expense. The Left Front is still in disarray after it had been unceremoniously evicted from its red citadel in the last state elections. The memories of the decade-long economic stagnation and poor governance are still fresh in the minds of the voters. The Left Front will have to do a whole lot better than pay simple lip service to class struggle and engage in anti-Western Imperialist tirade to attract voters to its fold.

Bihar will probably see a straightforward fight between Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and the BJP. The erstwhile allies have turned into foes after they decided to part ways on the Modi issue. Nitish Kumar can be credited with bringing about improvement in the physical infrastructure and ensuring better governance in the state.

His stand against Modi is also calculated to woo the considerable Muslim minority. However, Modi-inspired BJP will draw a substantial amount of votes from the upper caste voters – the Brahmins and the Thakurs. The Hinduvta wave could benefit BJP’s fortune in Bihar.

Any discussion on Bihar would be remiss if mention is not made of its most colourful and street-smart politician Lalu Prasad Yadav. His conviction and subsequent imprisonment in the fodder scam has taken a toll on his image. The endemic lawlessness and bitter caste conflict during his party’s rule diminishes his appeal considerably to the voters. Lalu’s alliance with Congress and Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party may not be a potent force in Bihar this time around.

Andhra Pradesh presents some unique problems. The state has recently been bifurcated into Telangana and Seemandhra. The Congress is set to be wiped out at Seemandhara where its own chief minister, Kiran Kumar Reddy, is a vocal opponent of the bill. If Mr Reddy decides to break away from the Congress, and competes as the head of a breakaway faction, he may cash in on the anti Telangana sentiment.

Telegu Desam Party of Dr Chandrababu Naidu may also do well after years in the political wilderness. Congress’s hope of doing well in Telangana may also be dashed – the Telangana Rashtra Samithi may cash in at the expense of Congress.

Tamil Nadu will probably see a strong performance from “Amma” – Chief Minister Jayalalithaa and her party All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). She has been the chief minister of Tamil Nadu four times and is set to sweep the Lok Sabha seats from Tamil Nadu.

Her nemesis, M Karunanidhi and his party DMK has been discredited in the eyes of Tamil voters for its involvement in corruption scams and its alliance with the increasingly unpopular Congress at the Centre. She too is flexible in terms of lending support to BJP or Congress.

However, she faces tax return investigations and many see this as a ploy by the Congress to coerce her into an alliance. Jayalalithaa is also exploring the option of a Third Front in alliance with the Left, thus steering away from the orbit of both Congress and the BJP. It would be interesting to see the next course of action that will be taken by Amma who also aspires to be prime minister of India one day.

What about the Aam Aadmi Party and Arvind Kejriwal? Discounting the media hoopla, the bubble of AAP may have burst just before the Lok Sabha elections. There are several reasons behind this seemingly surprising statement.

First and foremost, AAP made the mistake of coming to power at Delhi in alliance with Congress – the very party it had primarily started its crusade against. This served to shatter the illusion that AAP is above political maneuvering and ideological volte farce.

The party’s long-term interests would be better served if it sat as the Opposition party – it could criticise the government to its heart’s content without being weighed down by thorny issues of governance. Mr Kejriwal may have scored a few brownie points by supplying free water to poor Delhiwalas.

However, he and his party will soon find that it cannot always thrive on populist measures and there are limits to handouts financed by the state treasury. The party members may be free from the taint of corruption but they are woefully short of experience and tact – their public utterances and actions are a testament of this fact.

The Indians are generally known to prefer experience over exuberance – especially during periods of economic hardship and political uncertainty. Moreover, many forget that AAP is largely an urban phenomenon. The Indian political landscape is a bewildering kaleidoscope of caste, creed and ethnicity based parties.

Corruption, though a pressing issue, will be relegated to the backseat in comparison to the above-mentioned factors. For instance, a Dalit in Uttar Pradesh will vote for Mayawati and BSP – notwithstanding the allegations of corruption against her, as she embodies the hopes and aspirations of her community.

It is a supreme irony that the AAP’s crusade against corruption has been appropriated by both Congress and the BJP, thereby robbing the party of its distinctive appeal. AAP does not seem destined to make a big impact in the coming elections.

Summing up, three outcomes seem fairly certain. One, Congress will perform poorly at the polls; two, BJP will perform better than the Congress; three, Mayawati, Mamata and Jayalalithaa will play a decisive role in determining which party will come to power at the centre. The fate of the world’s most populous democracy may very well rest in the hands of the three ladies – Amma, Behenji and Didi.