A third option?

Only two more phases of polling remain in the 16th Lok Sabha elections of India where the fate of candidates in 105 seats would be decided, but the ruling Congress Party is now concentrating more on stitching up an alliance with smaller and regional parties in an effort to prevent a BJP-led alliance from coming to power at the Centre rather than thinking about doing well in these last two phases.

The Congress Party now believes that, despite the “Modi wave” sweeping the country, if the BJP-led alliance fails to bag 272 seats or more, and their share of seats is confined to around 230 at the most, then there is a glimmer of hope. A section of the Congress Party has already started courting the smaller and regional parties in an effort to stitch up a third option, by even leaving the prime minister’s post to one of these parties. It has already been reported that the Samajwadi Party and the Left Front have “indicated they’re open to such alliance.”

Before delving into the possibilities of such a third option seeing the light of day, one must be reminded that Congress giving outside support has an unpalatable history, first in 1979 (Charan Singh) and later in 1990 (Chandrasekhar).

After splitting from Congress, Morarji Desai became prime minister as leader of the Janata Party in 1977, but within two years, this government fell. The Jat leader Charan Singh, despite being short of the majority, staked claim and approached Mrs Indira Gandhi for support.

In 1990, the VP Singh government fell on Mandal Commission and Chandrasekhar became the prime minister with less than 70 seats but was supported by Congress. After 6 months the Congress Party alleged that the government was spying on Rajiv Gandhi and they very quickly withdrew support.

Be that as it may, the scenario is different now. Some leaders of Congress have even said that if they can get between 120 and 140 seats, they would make a concerted effort to form a coalition government as they did in 2004, but may leave the post of prime minister for a leader in the coalition.

Let us take a close look at how the parties in this likely coalition are expected to fare in the election, although Indian elections are too difficult to predict. According to election analysts, they will score well in Assam, Karnataka, and Maharashtra, and also bag a few seats in Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and West Bengal.

Among the regional parties, Jayalalitha’s AIADMK in the southern state of Tamil Nadu, where she is the chief minister now and riding on a popularity high, is expected to sweep the state and capture at least 30 seats.

The situation in Uttar Pradesh is totally different. Of the 80 seats in this state, Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samajwadi Party together could come out with between 35 and 40 seats. Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD is expected to fare better this time in Bihar and could come up with 7 to 10 seats.

Let us not forget Biju Patnaik in Odisha and Nitish Kumar in Bihar who, between them, could have, even on a conservative estimate, between 30 and 40 members in the Lok Sabha. If the left parties and the new entrant in India’s political arena, Aam Aadmi Party, can muster 40 seats together, it may be possible to keep the BJP-led NDA alliance out of power.

Another important factor in the Indian Lok Sabha election which could go in favour of such a third option is the vote of the Muslims. They account for about 20% of the votes and would not vote for the BJP. Moreover, 35 seats in the Lok Sabha have more than 30% Muslim votes and that is quite significant.

But, the problem that would arise in stitching such a third option, even if Congress does not want to stake a claim to the prime minister’s post, is that there are too many aspirants for this post. That could be the biggest stumbling block as no leader would like to be left out for the top position in the government. Even if the numbers add up, they may not be successful in keeping away the BJP-led NDA alliance to form the next government. Congress has to work tooth and nail to bring these diverse parties together under the same umbrella.

But the Congress Party, being in such dire straits, could, even at this late stage, take an initiative, and the third option is still viable, say election experts in India.

They say the big calculation now for the Congress Party is to keep the BJP-led alliance out of calculation, but the nation would have to wait till May 16, and if BJP and its allies cannot make the cut, the horse-trading and, with it, the fun begins.