Ruling the streets

It looks like I spoke to soon (it wouldn’t be the first time). Six weeks ago, when the results of the first phase of the upazila elections were in, I praised the government for what appeared to be adept handling of the polls, evidenced by the number of BNP and Jamaat supported candidates who came out on top.

After the first set of results were in, the ruling AL had a choice to make. It could either do whatever it took to ensure as many victories as possible or it could re-dedicate itself to providing free and fair elections, and let the chips fall where they would.

No prizes for guessing which option they took.

In the first phase amid reports of sporadic trouble, AL-backed candidates won just 35 out of 97 chairman’s posts compared to 44 for BNP-backed candidates and 12 for Jamaat proxies.

The opposition continued to hold its edge in the second phase, with BNP proxies winning 51 out of the 115 chairmanships, the Jamaat 8, and the AL 44.

But already the ruling party was mobilizing and there was a significant uptick in violence from the first phase. Voting was suspended in over 150 polling stations and 13 BNP-backed candidates pulled out citing massive irregularities.

By the time the fifth phase of voting was complete, the AL had succeeded in overhauling the BNP and its allies. Amid widespread credible reports of rigging and violence, the AL romped home in the fifth phase, winning 51 of 73 posts, the BNP finishing with a suspiciously poor 12 and the Jamaat an even poorer three.

By the time the dust had settled, the AL emerged as the big winner with 225 chairmanships, well ahead of the BNP with 157 and Jamaat with 35.

There can be little doubt that the upazila elections were seriously marred by violence and strong-arm tactics and other irregularities, and that the worst offender and primary beneficiary was the ruling party.

The AL could have chosen to use the upazila elections as a showcase for the strength and independence of the Election Commission, its own fidelity to democracy, and as evidence that BNP fears about the January 5 parliamentary elections were unfounded.

After the first phase, it seemed as though this was exactly what was happening. But somewhere along the line, the high command switched tactics, and a decision was made. The election must be won. As a result, instead of a showcase for the EC, we got the precise opposite: An object lesson in the weakness of the EC and the ruling party’s preference for victory over credibility.

The upazila elections were a missed opportunity for the AL and seem to have made the BNP’s point for them. At bottom, the BNP argument against the January 5 polls was that the AL could not be trusted to hold credible elections, and the upazila polls would seem to bear out this contention.

But the equally interesting and perhaps more worrisome point is that the AL doubtless knows this as well as you and I. They are shrewd and experienced pols who understand when they need to project power and when they need to project credibility.

They obviously took a cold, hard look at the political landscape and decided that the need to project the party’s power and to control the local administrative structure outweighed the need to project their democratic bona fides or to win over the populace.

Note how the pre-election promises of a fresh election as soon as practicable have been blithely cast aside without any concomitant concern for what it does for the government’s legitimacy and how it looks to the voting public.

In short, the political calculation of the ruling party is that credibility and fairness and conciliatoriness are out. Projecting power is in. What matters is sending a message both to their own troops as well as to the opposition that they still rule the streets.

This isn’t a happy augury. It suggests that the political battles of the near future will not be contested at the ballot box but in the streets, and the AL is serving notice far and wide that it is in no mood for playing nice and is that it is ready to defend its turf by any means necessary.

The message is clear. BNP leaders are once again behind bars or facing arrest. Given the legal charges that are being brought against her it seems simply a matter of time before party chief and ex-PM Khaleda Zia joins their ranks. The AL clearly does not expect that the BNP will go down quietly and it is readying itself for the inevitable backlash.

For the most part, it has been a blessedly quiet first few months of the year, certainly in comparison to the last quarter of 2013, but if the rising political temperature is anything to go by, it won’t last. We should prepare ourselves for the long, hot summer of 2014.