Barrister Harun ur Rashid
On 17th March, Crimea’s parliament has formally declared independence from Ukraine and asked to join the Russian Federation after the people of Crimean peninsula reportedly voted overwhelmingly (97%) on 16th March to join Russian Federation.
On the same day President Vladimir Putin signed a treaty to annex Crimea, eliciting strong condemnations from Western leaders and NATO officials. The annexation is now a formality by the Russian parliament.
In an emotional 40-minute speech, Putin said “in people’s hearts and minds, Crimea has always been an integral part of Russia.” At the same time, the Russian leader said his nation didn’t want to move into other regions of Ukraine, saying “we don’t want division of Ukraine.”
He dismissed Western criticism of Sunday’s Crimean referendum in which residents of the strategic Black Sea peninsula overwhelmingly backed breaking off from Ukraine and joining Russia as a manifestation of the West’s double standards.
Sino-Indian tacit approval
Putin argued that months of protests in Ukrainian capital that prompted President Viktor Yanukovych to flee to Russia had been instigated by the West in order to weaken Russia. He cast the new Ukrainian government as illegitimate, driven by radical “nationalists, neo-Nazis, Russophobes and anti-Semites.”
The treaty will have to be endorsed by Russia’s Constitutional Court and ratified by both houses of parliament, but Valentina Matviyenko, the speaker of upper house of Russian parliament, said the procedure could be completed by the end of the week.
The Ukrainian government in Kiev has said it will not recognise the results. The US and EU say the vote was illegal because it is contrary to Ukrainian constitution and have vowed to impose sanctions on Moscow.
United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon reportedly told President Putin: “I cannot but to tell you that I am deeply concerned.” Ban called for the deployment to Ukraine of rights monitors from the UN and the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and for an “honest and constructive dialogue” between Moscow and Kiev.
Meanwhile China and India tacitly supported Russia on Crimea’s annexation.
What do we hear from our colleagues in Western Europe and North America? They tell us that we are violating the norms of international law. First of all, it’s good that they at least remember that international law exists, and thanks for that. Better late than never.
“We hear from the United States and Europe that Kosovo was again some kind of special case. But what then, in the opinion of our colleagues, makes it exceptional? It turns out that during the conflict in Kosovo there were many human victims. What is this? A judicial legal argument?”
Russia strongly feels the West has tricked it on Ukrainian crisis. Last month a compromise agreement was signed between President Viktor Yanukovych and the opposition. That deal, brokered by foreign ministers from Germany, France and Poland, envisaged early elections, constitutional reform and a national unity government.
West provoked Russia
Russia appeared to accept it as the best solution in a bad situation. Less than 24 hours later, Yanukovych was on the run, the parliament removed him from power and appointed a new acting president from the opposition.
Moscow saw a series of unilateral Western military actions – in the Balkans, in Iraq, and in Libya – as a sign that the West would use its power in an arbitrary and unilateral fashion.
Since 1990s, Russia saw with concern that the West expanded NATO to Poland and the Baltic states. It was even more provocative to try to push NATO to Russia’s next door. This happened in 2008 when Brussels declared that Georgia and Ukraine would become part of NATO.
After the advance of Nato’s frontiers ever-closer to Russia, seemed to confirm President Vladimir Putin in his view that only by reasserting Moscow’s role in the former Soviet-space could his country’s prestige and security be assured. The defence of Russian minorities became both a goal and a tactic to achieve this end.
Tom Switzer of Sydney University writes that however unsettling, Russia’s actions are not irrational. In many ways they are the foreseeable reaction to the West’s decisions since the collapse of the Soviet Empire.
Furthermore the Western leaders boycotted the Sochi winter Olympics last February, a pride project of Russian President Putin. The absence of Western leaders annoyed Putin and many analysts say it was a mistake of the West not to attend the inaugural ceremony because Russia, being a veto-wielding member of the UN Security Council, can make many of the Western actions on global crisis dysfunctional.
With regard to tough policy of the US, there are political reasons. President Obama suffers from low popularity. He has been seen as a weak commander-in-chief. He has been criticised severely by the Republicans for pursuing soft policies for Syria and Iran. Israel and Saudi Arabia are not pleased with Obama on his policy on Iran. Obama wants to show tough with Russia to regain the popularity of the party, partly in the context of mid-term Congress elections.
Sanctions to affect both
As the threat of sanctions with Russia grows closer, the Dutch and Czech foreign ministers express concerns. EU and Russia are economically dependent on each other. The slow-growing Western economies depend on Russian oil and gas. Moreover the US under the law cannot export oil or gas to Europe and the US will not allow Iran to export to Europe.
On 20th March, President Barack Obama announced a new round of punitive measures for Moscow’s annexation of Crimea as Europe’s leaders also readied to hit back at Russia with fresh sanctions. A new list of Russian 20 lawmakers and senior government officials was added, in addition to 11 people already sanctioned by Washington. Among those named are top businessmen close to President Vladimir Putin such as billionaires Gennady Timchenko, Arkady Rotenberg and Boris Rotenberg plus a bank used by close associates.
In turn, Moscow listed Obama aides Caroline Atkinson, Daniel Pfeiffer and Benjamin Rhodes and Senators Mary Landrieu, John McCain and Daniel Coats. “There should be no doubt: each hostile attack will be met in an adequate manner,” the Russian foreign ministry said, while Putin’s spokesman slammed Obama’s move as “unacceptable.”
Russia is the EU’s third-largest trading partner, mainly because of oil and gas imports, with the EU being its biggest gas consumer. Germany, for example, gets 35 per cent of its supplies from Russia. Is Germany going to threaten the one third of its oil and gas supplies, which it gets from Russia?
Russia, in turn, buys everything from machinery to cars from Europe, its biggest trading partner, with exports to Russia totalling $170 billion in 2012. Bound by tens of billions of dollars in trade, there is plenty to hurt one another by imposing sanctions on Russia.
EU efforts to diversify energy supplies after Russia cut deliveries to Ukraine in 2006 and 2009 have so far failed to make much headway and the EU leaders are due to discuss the issue again.
Cold War being revived?
Billionaire George Soros in his book, “The Tragedy of the European Union”, published in the UK on 18th March writes that Europe may not survive 25 years of stagnation. Japan has just had 25 years of it and is desperately trying to get out of exactly the situation that Europe is moving into. Under the scenario, whether EU can afford to risk its economy by imposing sanctions on Russia.
Some Russian die-hard nationalists say that confrontation with the West will allow Russia to cleanse the oligarchs from the wealth they deposited outside Russia. It also provides an opportunity for Russia to sell more oil and gas to China. Russia may also start an economic bloc with Central Asian countries and China to minimise the effect of sanctions.
Remember Sam Huntington and his ‘Clash of Civilisations’? He prophesied that world conflict would be between Islam and the West, or the Slavs and the West. But Russians and Ukrainians are both Slavs. Huntington is found to be wrong.
Even though people from independent countries share similar ethnicity, race and history, all countries have their unique traditions and cultures; so are Ukraine and Russia.
This situation is the most serious east-west confrontation since the end of the Cold War in 1991. Some analysts believe its immediate impact may fall on course of action on Syria and Iran between the West and Russia. Other ramifications may follow with unintended consequences. It appears that the Cold War is back in a new shape and a new form between Russia and the West and it does not augur well for global peace and security.
Finally, many say the vote is overwhelming and knowing the history of that region, how can the West suppress the will of the Crimean people? Mere emotion does not play in cold politics but reality and reason should guide the views and actions.
The writer is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.
Source: Weekly Holiday
