Prothom Alo
I took part in a meeting to exchange views on 10 May at the invitation of the foreign minister. Around 20 to 25 people including former diplomats, professors of international relations departments of different universities and civil society members like me attended the meeting organised at the ministry’s training centre. Foreign minister AK Abdul Momen was the chief speaker. He gave a picture of what the foreign ministry’s thoughts about the present and the future challenges regarding the foreign policy. He insisted that Bangladesh is still continuing Bangabandhu’s foreign policy of “friendship with all, malice to none.”
An open discussion was held on the challenges Bangladesh might face in this and the next decade. I think the main challenges for Bangladesh at this moment are: 1. Facing the Rohingya crisis and relations with Myanmar, 2. Quad and the Indo-Pacific Strategic Alliance, and 3. Future of Bangladesh’s “previous policy”.
When this discussion was going on, probably at that time or just ahead of that time, China’s ambassador to Bangladesh Li Jiming told a media briefing in Dhaka that Bangladesh’s relations with China will be “substantially damaged” if Bangladesh joins the US-led initiative, Quad. Reacting to this, foreign minister Momen unequivocally said such speech is unwarranted and an interference into Bangladesh’s foreign policy. Independent Bangladesh’s policy was independent.
The Chinese ambassador, however, later said he made a mistake in choosing words. But he did not withdraw his statement. In the presence of China’s state councilor and foreign minister Wang Yi, the ministry’s spokesperson Hua Chunying made statement in this connection. Though he insisted that China did not interfere in the domestic affairs of a country, he did not say anything about withdrawing the statement of the ambassador. Above all, Chinese ambassadors do not generally remark on anything without getting a go-ahead.
However, it is common knowledge that the anti-China alliances, Indo-Pacific Strategic Alliance and Quad, knows that among the South Asian countries only India is a partner of the alliance. No other country has so far joined the alliance. India is an important member of Quad and in terms of army and naval power, India is regarded as just after China. Three other members of the alliance are – Australia, Japan and the US, which is the main power of this alliance. From the very outset, the US has been opposing the policies of Chinese Communist Party and the rising power of China.
On the other hand, India is the only neighbour of China in the north. Despite having commerce relations with India, there has been a geopolitical tension between the two countries since the very beginning of the Communist party’s government (1948) over Communist ideology and Tibet. After the India-China war in 1962, five principles of peaceful coexistence, known as the Panchsheel Treaty between the two countries collapsed. The problem turned into a crisis since China’s occupation of Tibet and Dalai Lama took shelter in India. Recently, relations between India and China worsened further. There was a brief spell of clashes at Galwan valley in Ladakh in May 2020 and the whole world became aware of it. Currently, the escalation at the valley and India-China border is quelled.
India has built up a strategic alliance with the US in 1991. As a result, armed forces of the two countries have been organising joint exercises. We could mention about the joint drill, Malabar, of the US and Indian navy and air forces in the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean. For long, India and the US have been trying to persuade all other South Asian nations except Pakistan to join Quad. Diplomatic steps to decrease the influence of China in other countries are also visible. Due to Bangladesh’s geographical location, and economic and military closeness with China the country is very important to the Quad members, especially India and the US. Among the other countries, Nepal is now within the influence of China. No other South Asian country or Southeast Asian country has joined the military alliance, the so-called ‘Nato of the East’, nor expressed any desire to do so. Even Singapore has not responded in this regard. There’s a rumour that Vietnam and Indonesia might join the Quad.
International experts and analysts, especially many Indian military experts, believe Bangladesh Navy will not be able to make any tangible contribution even if it joins Quad. No one other than Japan and the United States can cooperate in economic activities in the Quad. Bangladesh’s economic cooperation with Japan started after independence. Yet Japan is still the top country as an investment and economic partner. However, China is rapidly reducing this gap. India is economically weaker than Japan and China, especially due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Despite all this, US pressure was visible towards the end of the last Trump administration. The then Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Beigun paid a brief visit to Dhaka and gave hints in a following press briefing. The pressure continues till now. On the other hand, the visit of Indian foreign minister and Chief of Army Staff to Bangladesh earlier this year is quite significant. According to many experts, the aim of the visit was to discuss Quad. Chinese defence minister general Wei Fenghe paid a surprise visit to Bangladesh following the activity and raised the issue of Quad with the president. It is believed that the statement of the ambassador from China was resulted from those series of incidents. Even if Bangladesh does not join the Quad, this is a joint effort by India and the United States to prevent China from increasing its activities on the Bangladesh coast and using ports. On the other hand, China is keen to keep Bangladesh on the platform for emergency storage of Covid vaccine for South Asia. There is no discussion about its implementation yet, though.
However, there is no doubt that the Quad has created challenges in the diplomatic arena of Bangladesh. So far Bangladesh has been able to maintain equal distance with great success. It will be better for Bangladesh to continue it in the future as well.
* Sakhawat M Hossain is an election analyst, former army officer and senior research fellow at SIPG. He could be reached at [email protected]
* This article, originally published in the print edition of Prothom Alo, has been rewritten in English by Shameem Reza and Farjana Liakat
