One in every 10 people in the capital may have already been infected with Covid-19, says the World Bank, warning that the coronavirus pandemic is not likely to pass anytime soon.
Even if the actual infections were much higher than the registered cases, it seemed unlikely that Bangladesh and other South Asian countries were already close to the levels that would trigger herd immunity, the global lender said in its latest report on the nations.
“The evidence that those who recover from Covid-19 develop long-term immunity is not very solid. Hence, there is significant uncertainty about the future development of the pandemic in South Asia, and the only relative certainty is that it is unlikely to pass anytime soon,” said the report, released yesterday.
The report titled “Beaten or Broken? Informality and Covid-19” comes at a time when Bangladesh is fearing a second wave of the coronavirus infection in the upcoming winter amid a steady number of daily infections and deaths.
The total number of confirmed cases in the country stood at 374,592 after the authorities recorded 1,441 new cases in 24 hours till 8:00am yesterday against 13,605 tests.
In another development, Mercy Tembon, World Bank’s country director for Bangladesh and Bhutan, said the lender would allocate resources to support Bangladesh’s plan on obtaining potential vaccine for the virus.
“We shall allocate resources to support Bangladesh’s plan to obtain vaccines for its population and prepare a strategic plan for vaccination,” she told The Daily Star in reply to a written query, at a telephonic press conference on Wednesday night before the launch of the report.
The country director said the global lender was committed to providing additional financing so that low- and middle-income countries could have access to the vaccines necessary to alter the course of the pandemic and to rebuild livelihoods and economies.
Consequently, the World Bank management has asked the executive board to approve additional financing of $12 billion to help low-income and middle-income countries purchase and distribute vaccines, Mercy Tembon added.
‘BANGLADESH TESTS
FAR BELOW ‘
The WB report, which mainly focuses on the coronavirus’ devastating impacts on the economies of the region, briefly sheds light on the present state of Covid-19 and the pandemic’s impact on the education system in seven South Asian countries.
It said the testing was low and the actual extent of Covid-19 infections in these countries was highly uncertain because of supply constraints, social stigma, and a young population.
Due to the social stigma associated with an infection, many prefer not to get tested in the first place and only seek medical attention when the symptoms are severe, it said.
Besides, as the South Asia’s population is on average very young, infections are more likely to cause no or only mild symptoms, the report said, adding that testing fees and distrust in the testing facilities result in subdued demand in some places.
“Most South Asian countries fare poorly on testing for Covid-19. The benchmark range for adequate testing set by the World Health Organization is between 10 and 30 per confirmed case,” the report said.
But Bangladesh is testing far below the range, which makes its recorded numbers particularly uncertain, it said, adding, “Low testing is both a result of supply constraints and subdued demand for testing.”
Only Bhutan and Sri Lanka, which have a very few cases per capita, have tested far above that range since March, it added.
The report said while the number of infections per million people varies strongly at the national level, nearly all countries have districts with less than 50 cases per 100,000 people and districts with more than 250 cases per 100,000.
In Bangladesh, less than 10 percent of the districts have less than 50 cases per 100,000 people, the report added.
Apart from advocating for economic relief for the poor and vulnerable, the WB suggested that the government’s Covid-19 response should remain a paramount priority, including testing, quarantining and treating patients.
‘DROPOUTS, SUBSTANTIAL
LEARNING LOSSES’
Temporary school closures in all South Asian countries have had major implications for students as the authorities kept 391 million students out of school in primary and secondary education, further complicating efforts to resolve the learning crisis.
While most governments have made efforts to mitigate the impact of school closures, it has been difficult to engage children through remote learning initiatives, the WB report said.
“This is resulting in enormous dropouts and substantial learning losses, which will have a lifetime impact on the productivity of a generation of students,” it said.
The pandemic may cause up to 5.5 million students to drop out from the education system.
“The impact on learning is equally enormous,” it said.
The projected learning loss for the region is 0.5 years of learning-adjusted years of schooling (LAYS), falling from 6.5 LAYS to 6.0 LAYS, an enormous setback from recent advances in schooling, it added.
DAILY BRIEFING
Among the deceased reported yesterday, 13 were males and seven females, according to a press release of the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS).
It said 19 patients died in hospitals and one at home.
About the age of the deceased, the directorate said 11 were aged above 60, five between 51 and 60, three between 41 and 50 and one between 31 and 40 years.
So far, more than half of the deceased are from Dhaka division, according to the DGHS.
The death rate stood at around 1.46 percent.
The DGHS said the positivity rate for the 24-hour period was 11.43 percent and the overall positivity rate was 18.37 percent.
In the same 24 hours, a total of 1,685 Covid-19 patients recovered, taking the total number of recoveries to 288,316, which is almost 77 percent of all confirmed cases.
