Triangular great game transforming politics

President Barack Obama has proven to be a master craftsman in carving out a niche to realizing USA’s national interest. For years, he has managed to keep China and India in good humour while not failing to encircle the both by luring away many of their loyal neighbours from Beijing’s entrenched geopolitical embraces.

Last week, the USA has entertained Bangladesh Foreign Minister in Washington and rolled out red carpet for the Myanmar President, Thein Sein. As India remains an integral part to this intense China-US great game, internal political landscapes in both Myanmar and Bangladesh is changing too fast, albeit in diametrically opposite directions.

Myanmar is inexorably moving towards more openness and democratization while the regime in Dhaka is turning more autocratic and repressive. Yet, during a meeting on Friday between the US Secretary of State John Kerry and Bangladesh Foreign Minister Dipu Moni, the US is learnt to have subscribed to a Bangladesh government version of the events of May 5 when millions of Hefajat (Islamist) activists flocked in Dhaka’s Motijheel area, only to be flushed out in the pre-dawn hours of May 6 by a brutal force that had reportedly unleashed an orgy of genocide of unarmed protesters and killed over 3,000 of them in cold blood. Another over 4,000 were reportedly wounded.

Sources say, Dipu Moni had informed the Obama administration that the Islamists had a plan to linger their presence in Dhaka until a disgruntled faction from the military would join them to upstage the government and establish a Taliban-styled Bangladesh.

Incredulous though may sound such a prospect, the USA, however, did swallow the Bangladesh government’s version not as much from the standpoint of truth, but from the compulsions of its own national interests.

Bemused by this remarkable breakthrough in the hitherto estranged US-Bangladesh ties, Dipu Moni said after meeting John Kerry, “We’re looking forward to more cooperation in all areas of our common concern, both bilaterally and at multilateral levels.”

As Washington wants desperately Myanmar and Bangladesh on its side to checkmate the rising clout of China in the global politics, that opportunity just came handy during the Bangladesh Foreign Minister’s Washington visit, and, a renewed Dhaka-Washington rapport has emerged after years of bumpy ties between the two administrations.

It’s no secret that the USA views China as a budding military power poised to challenging the USA’s global predominance. Beijing’s bloated military spending — $116 billion in 2013; nearly 200 per cent more than the amount spent a decade ago—has contributed greatly in shifting the US focus towards the Asia-Pacific region by increasing trade and military presence in China’s neighbouring countries.

This paradigm shift has made Myanmar and Bangladesh the two most important peripheral states of China with whom Washington seeks better military and economic ties.

Washington also finds it troubling that Delhi and Beijing have locked themselves in a regional bondage aimed at enhancing bilateral trade to over US$100 billion by 2015. More troubling is the desire of the two Asian giants to trade with their own currencies, or barter mutual products, by ditching away the US dollar.

But when the White House rolled the red carpet on Monday for the visiting Myanmar President, a handful of Muslim protesters were shouting outside  to voice their anger over the indiscriminate killing of Myanmar’s Rohingya minority Muslims by the country’s security forces.

The visit of Myanamr President to the USA also occurred on the heels of the Physicians for Human Rights (PHR) — a rights group based in Cambridge, Massachusetts—stating in its latest report that attacks against Muslims that took place in central Myanmar in late March resulted in the deaths of at least 20 children and four teachers. The report said the authorities stood by watching the events unfold and was complicit in the commissioning of the crimes.

“President Obama must use this occasion to persuade Burma’s leader that the only path from tyranny to democracy is through the promotion and respect of human rights,” said Richard Sollom, the report’s lead author and PHR’s director of emergencies.

But the US President seemed least bothered about such criticisms due to the perceived economic and geopolitical interests of his country having necessitated the opening of doors to a Myanmar President 47 years after another military dictator, General Ne Win, visited the White House in 1966. The visit to Washington of the Bangladesh Foreign Minister stems from the similar rationales.

But the seeming rapprochement between Dhaka and Washington is bound to push Dhaka into a major dilemma due to Delhi’s overt and covert interests in Bangladesh and Beijing’s increased closeness with Delhi.  Exactly the same day (Monday) the Myanmar President sat with President Obama, Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang landed in Delhi in his first trip abroad since assuming office.

The visit signalled how important Delhi is to Beijing under the changed circumstances.  During the visit, Li Keqiang promised to increase “mutual trust” with India and talked over trade and border tensions to smoothen ways for a sustainable better relationship.

Although the diplomatic sources insisted that the talks between Li and Singh focused mainly on trade, a geopolitical realignment in the region is much evident despite China becoming India’s largest trading partner; bilateral trade having already amounted to $66 billion (51 billion euros) in 2012. In 2011, the volume was even higher, $73 billion to be exact, which has reduced last year due to lingering global economic crisis.

During the summit, Beijing promised to allow more Indian goods into the Chinese markets in order to redress the lopsided trade balance that is tilting heavily in Beijing’s favour, to the tune of $30 billion deficit on Indian side.

All these neither mean the Indo-US relationship is faced with an insurmountable bump, or, Myanmar-China honeymoon is over. What they mean is that Bangladesh is once again lost in the maze of foreign policy wilderness while the USA is hedging its Asia-Pacific geopolitical bait more on Myanmar and Bangladesh than on India, which too is seeking global predominance.

While President Obama can successfully tread a delicate balance in this sensitive game of brinkmanship, Dhaka cannot. China is also Bangladesh’s largest trading partner.

Meanwhile, concerned that Beijing might interpret a very high profiled visit by the Myanmar President as something fishy, President Obama refrained from holding a joint press conference with the visiting Myanmar President.

Yet, a clear sign of Myanmar edging closer to the USA was visible in the signing between the two countries on Tuesday of the much coveted Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) to promote a host of bilateral trade and investment programs. “As part of this dialogue, the two sides will work together to identify initiatives that support the ongoing reform program and promote inclusive development that benefits the people of Burma, including the poorest segments of its population,” a spokesman for the US trade office said.

The TIFA was signed by acting US Trade Representative Demetrios Marantis and Myanmar’s deputy commerce minister, Pwint San. And, with most of the US sanctions on Myanmar having been suspended in 2012, the TIFA is expected to generate a slew of US investment in Myanmar’s enormous hydrocarbon field. Marantis, the top US trade envoy, reiterated that economic reforms and trade were mutually supportive.

According to official data, Myanmar-USA bilateral trade totalled $90 million in the first three months of 2013, including $89 million in US exports to Myanmar. The volume is expected to double by this time next year.

Most importantly, the visit underscored the extent to which Myanmar’s status has changed in Washington. The criticism regarding Myanmar’s human rights abuses aside, President Obama spoke highly of President Thein Sein—a former army General who took office as a nominal civilian in 2011 — for freeing hundreds of political prisoners, reaching ceasefires with ethnic rebel groups,  easing censorship and, letting long-detained opposition icon Aung San Suu Kyi enter the country’s parliament.

Trade is also a priority between Beijing and Delhi, notwithstanding the nagging border tension between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. For decades, New Delhi accused Beijing of making claims over some 90,000 sq. km. in India’s northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh and another about 38,000 sq. km. in the Aksai Chin plateau of the western Himalayas.

A brief but bloody war in 1962 over the disputed border is something the world outside uses as the unmitigated lesson of animosity between the two Asian giants.

That bitter ambiance is about to change now. During his speech, Li reiterated China’s desire to build up trust with India as both sides agreed to work towards resolving the long-running border dispute in the Himalayas. “A peaceful and stable South Asia is consistent with China’s development interests and will enable China to focus on addressing problems at home,” Li  said.

Unfortunately, that stability is what is missing in Bangladesh. At a time when Myanmar heads toward more reforms and democratization, in Bangladesh, democracy, rule of law and human rights are suppressed with impunity by the incumbent regime, and, the quest for stability becomes more elusive amidst an unprecedented radicalization of the internal polity. To ensure regional stability, US must be watchful of human rights abuses in both Myanmar and Bangladesh. (globalreview.ca).

Source: Weekly Holiday