The uncertainty of Modi

Modi has won an overwhelming victory, but he will still not be able to overcome the federated structure of Indian politics and disregard the large anti-Bangladesh constituency in the border states.

Kaveri, an Indian river originating from Karnataka, flows through another southern Indian state, Tamil Nadu, and ends up at the Bay of Bengal. The river was the cause of the anti-Tamil riot in 1991.

Karnataka was drawing water from the Kaveri causing a decreased flow downstream. Tamil Nadu went to court for an equitable share of water from Kaveri as Karnataka refused to provide enough water to Tamil Nadu. The Indian government constituted a tribunal to sort out the issue and the tribunal awarded Tamil Nadu with 205 billion cubic feet of water every year in 1991.

People of Karnataka retorted violently over the verdict. Politicians termed the verdict a partial one and demonstrated against it, which resulted in a communal riot against the Tamils in Karnataka as Tamil Nadu is basically a state of Tamil speaking inhabitants of India.

The violence of the riot forced hundreds of thousands of Tamils to flee from Karnataka, and no less than a hundred Tamils were killed during the riot.

The incident depicts the strength of the state governments in India as well the consciousness of Indians.

After Narendra Damodardas Modi was sworn in as the new premier of the Republic of India, some started beating the drum about sorting out the Teesta water sharing issue during his tenure as the newly elected BJP government has enough hold in the parliament. But the fact is that the hope to resolve the river water sharing issue with India may end in vain during the Modi government.

The dreamers must know that in India it is very difficult for the central government to pursue its decisions overlooking the interest of individual states. Any decision taken by the central government regarding the Teesta water sharing issue has to go through the office of the Chief Minister of West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee, who previously abandoned the Bangladesh tour and refused to share the Teesta river water. It will be crucial to make Mamata Banerjee nod before the BJP government’s decision to share the Teesta water.

The bad blood between Mamata Banerjee, who walked out of the National Democratic Alliance led by BJP, and the BJP leadership is still evident. Mamata Banerjee skipped the swearing in of Narendra Modi. BJP and Trinamool Congress crossed swords on the Bangladeshi immigrant issue before the national election of India as BJP threatened to drive out the “so-called” Bangladeshi immigrants from India.

On the other hand, the deadly Radcliff line, the border of India and Bangladesh where more than a thousand Bangladeshis had been killed in the last decade, may turn deadlier than before during the Modi government’s tenure.

Modi’s BJP previously declared they would be crueler towards the Bangladeshi immigrants. The Madhav Godbole Committee on Border Management in 2,000 said about 300,000 Bangladeshi immigrants enter India every year without valid papers.

Perceiving them as a threat, India started constructing a massive frontier fence, hoping that it would act as a bulwark.

The Modi government will surely continue the construction and the BSF will be sterner than before as Modi has declared to be strict over this issue. The government of Bangladesh should ensure the safety of its citizens in the bordering area.

Moreover, NDA vehemently opposed the land swap bill which was tabled in the Rajya Sabha last December.

The Congress-led UPA failed to amend the constitution of India to facilitate the swap of land enclaves with Bangladesh. BJP’s Assam wing has always criticised the land swap with India, and BJP has always paid heed to its leaders and activists in West Bengal and Assam on this issue.

Arun Jaitley who is now serving as the finance minister of India, wrote a letter to the Rajya Sabha Chairman on this regard while he was in opposition. In his letter he said: “Parliament has no jurisdiction to alter the territory of India.

The territory represents sovereignty and are both a part of the basic structure of the Constitution and thus, cannot be reduced or altered by an amendment to the Constitution.”

The expected move of BJP with an absolute majority in the Rajya Sabha on this issue will be creating a stalemate.

The modus operandi of Indian diplomats is not unfamiliar to Bangladeshis. The only thing the south block cares about is the interest of India. Modi in power will not help Bangladesh gain anything from them if Bangladesh remains irrational about their interests.

Bangladesh should rethink its policy and start negotiating with every single party for a permanent solution to all the problems.