Although implementation of the Annual Development Programme (ADP) got a major boost in the last fiscal year (2012-13) hitting 96 percent, its progress in the current fiscal year (2013-14) is likely to suffer a setback due to the ongoing political unrest and violence, said a leading economist.
Talking to UNB, Dr Mustafa K Mujeri expressed his apprehension that the ADP implementation rate would be lower in the current fiscal compared to the previous fiscal largely because of the ongoing political crisis.
He noted that there was marked improvement in the last fiscal year in case of ADP implementation progress compared to the previous few fiscal years. “But, under the present political circumstances, implementation is being hampered in various sectors, especially at the field level, for which the country is likely to witness lower implementation rate in the last five months of the ongoing fiscal.”
According to sources at the Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation Division (IMED), the implementation progress is likely to witness lower rate during the July-November period of the current fiscal compared to the same period of the last fiscal although the official data is yet to be revealed.
The implementation progress of the ADP except for the self-financed projects in the first four months (July-October) of the current fiscal (2013-14) was 15 percent compared to 20 percent during the same period of the previous fiscal (2012-13).
Citing that such congenial atmosphere is not prevailing in the country to make desired expenditure in the infrastructural sector, Dr Mujeri, also the Director General of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), said that the nation would have to wait and see how it could overcome the present political unrest and recoup the losses in the economic and social sectors.
Asked to predict about the implementation rate for the current year, he said, “It’s very difficult at the present moment to predict. If there’s improvement in the present political unrest, then it would be possible to overcome the situation in the later half of the ongoing fiscal year with prudent government efforts.”
Mentioning that the overall economic activities are being hampered under the present circumstances so as the revenue earnings, Dr Mujeri said the government would have to take rational steps to revise the current ADP in a bid to have a prudent ADP size considering the practical situation.
Asked how much he was optimistic about the improvement in the current political situation, he said, “It’s questionable to what extent it is possible to become optimistic. We’ve to wait and see how much there’s improvement in the political situation in the upcoming months and to what extent we would be able to recoup the losses and deficiencies. The implementation rate of ADP is likely to suffer after October due to the unrest in the country’s political arena.”
Voicing his concern that the country’s economy is not moving ahead as per its normal pace due to the political disturbances, he stressed that the economy should have to be brought out from this political unrest.
“The major political parties should have to come to an acceptable solution. Otherwise, as long the unrest would persist, the implementation progress of the ADP would be hampered ……the major pre-condition for restoring much more normalcy in the economic activities is the acceptable solution to the current political situation.”
According to IMED, the ADP expenditure during this July-October period of current fiscal except for the self-financed projects was Tk 9,906 crore compared to Tk 10,920 crore during the corresponding period of fiscal 2012-13. The ADP size except for the self-financed projects in the current fiscal (FY14) is Tk 65,872 crore.
In case of the self-financed projects, the implementation rate marked 6 percent with Tk 461 crore spent during the July-October of FY14.
The RADP implementation rate of the last fiscal year (2012-13) except for the self-financed projects reached 96 percent as the expenditure totalled Tk 50,026 crore out of the overall ADP allocation of Tk 57,388 crore.
The RADP implementation rate in the 2011-12 fiscal reached 93 percent with expenditure totalling Tk 38,023 crore out of the RADP allocation of Tk 41,080 crore. The implementation rate in 2010-11 fiscal year reached 92 percent up from 91 percent notched in 2009-10 fiscal year.
Source: UNBConnect