Nepal’s Parliament on Sunday elected Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli as the country’s 38th prime minister. With more than 55% of lawmakers’ votes, Oli beat the incumbent, Sushil Koirala, to become the first prime minister of the South Asian nation since it adopted a new constitution in September.
The 63-year-old leader is chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist, the second-largest party in the Parliament.
Oli was backed by UCPN-Maoist, Rastriya Prajatantra Party-Nepal, Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum-Democratic and some fringe parties while four Madhes parties in the United Democratic Madhesi Front had supported National Congress leader Koirala who himself became prime minister with the support from CPN-UML in 2014.
Trade with India stalled
Oli served as the nation’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs in the Girija Prasad Koirala-led interim government formed immediately after the 2006 People’s Movement. Back in 1994, he was the Minister for Home Affairs in the Cabinet led by the then UML Chairman Manmohan Adhikari.
He was elected a member of the Parliament thrice – in 1991, 1994 and 1999 – from various constituencies of Jhapa district from where he began his political career in 1966.
Oli takes over as prime minister at a crucial time as Nepal has been wracked by violent political protests by Madhesi people protesting against the new Constitution.
Nepal, paralyzed by two major earthquakes earlier in the year, has faced major political and economic crises in recent days as a few minority groups continue their protest against provisions of the newly ratified constitution.
The country has also been locked in a diplomatic standoff with India over the supply of essential goods, including petroleum products, which has been hit due to blockade of border trade points with India following the violence.
At least 40 people have died in over a month of clashes between police and protesters from the Madhesi and Tharu communities and ethnic minorities.
The agitating Madhesi Front claims that the Constitution does not guarantee enough rights and representation to the Madhesi and Tharu communities residing in southern Nepal. Madhesis are Indian-origin inhabitants of the Terai region bordering India who are also opposed to splitting Nepal into seven provinces.
Blockages at Nepal’s border with its largest trading partner, India, are dragging on into a third week. Fuel is rationed, and supplies of food and medicine are running low in the Himalayan nation, according to its Commerce Ministry.
The landlocked country between India and China blames India for imposing an unofficial trade blockade to show dissatisfaction over Nepal’s new constitution. India denies the charge, saying truckers are hesitant to cross the border because of security concerns on Nepal’s side.
Delhi’s waiting game
Nepal’s fuel crisis eased slightly as the Himalayan nation began issuing gasoline for private vehicles while also reopening a northern border crossing with China that had been damaged by April’s devastating earthquake.
Lines of cars and motorcycles stretched for kilometres from gasoline pumps in Kathmandu on Oct 13 as people rushed to fill up before the Hindu festival of Dasain, the country’s biggest holiday. The government said it was allowing only a one-time sale of 15 litres per vehicle until the fuel shortage is over.
Nepal has been hobbled by the fuel crisis, which started when Indian trucks began halting at the border after Nepal adopted a new constitution. The constitution angered ethnic Madhesi groups, who are now demanding it be amended. Nepal accused India of imposing a blockade to force the government to meet the demands of Madhesis, who have close ties in India.
India denies there is any official blockade, saying truckers are simply afraid to cross into areas of protest. However, it has not explained why truckers were not afraid when the groups were protesting for weeks before the constitution was adopted.
The main border point at Birgunj, which handles 60-70 per cent of India-Nepal trade, remained closed while protesters continued to rally on the Nepalese side. About 100 kilometres away at the crossing in Lahan, Madhesi villagers said they were also hard hit because of the fuel shortage, but would continue their protests
However, the chill permeating Indo-Nepal ties shows no signs of abating, even though Prime Minister Narendra Modi apparently softened his approach to new Nepal PM K P Oli. Until Oli’s government delivers on the promise to make necessary changes to the Constitution, it’s unlikely that he will make it to Delhi as state guest.
Taking a “wait and watch” approach, an Indian official said, “In the last 20 days, we are seeing greater willingness to address the issues which was not there earlier… We hope he (Oli) will move on the 8-point agreement he made public.”
A dicey game begins
Official sources said it is very different from the time when the big three political parties refused to acknowledge the Madhes problem, even when large areas in the terai region were under curfew. Former Indian Ambassador to Nepal Jayanta Prasad and currently director of IDSA, said, “This is a great opportunity for Oli to mend fences with India and strike a deal with the Madhesis.”
Of much greater concern is the new-found consolidation of all the Left parties and the coming together of Leftists and old Royalists, making them the biggest ‘China lobby’ in the Nepal administration. While officials may say China is not interfering in Nepal, the fact remains that a downward spiraling relations with India and a sympathetic China could create its own dynamics. Last Monday, the first China-Nepal border post opened after months when it was destroyed by the April earthquake.
Meanwhile, the newly elected deputy Prime Minister Bijaya Kumar Gachhadar has promised that the new Constitution will be amended with revision on the federal structure in order to address the demands of agitating people in Tarai-Madhes. This seems to have complicated the scenario further. The proposed changes include delimitation of constituencies, proportionate representation of disadvantaged groups in the administration and redrawing of provinces. Gachhadar was quoted as saying they might go back to the eight provinces agreed earlier rather than seven. But India says it will wait to see what happens.
India’s strategy stumbles
While India had consulted the Nepalese leadership on the broad areas to be covered by the Constitution, it has refrained from getting into the nitty-gritty of drafting, largely to give the Nepalese space and avoid being accused of micro-managing the process. In summer, it became clear that the “hill” elite wanted to keep the ‘plains’ people out of the power structure. Under cover of holding a “dialogue” with the Madhes parties, the ‘Big Three’ rammed through 200 articles of the Constitution on a single day by issuing a whip to the Constituent Assembly members while also holding the vote on the entire Constitution.
India was caught flat-footed and rushed to limit the damage. The setback to ties is so severe that it may take months, even years to resolve. The Modi government had thought the PM’s successful visit would be enough to repair what has been a difficult relationship for decades. But the latest developments upset all such calculations.
Source: weekly holiday