Modi’s visit will go through but the future of Indo-Bangla ties is uncertain

March 6, 2020    |   By: Afsan Chowdhury

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Bangladesh on the occasion of the centenary of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s birth on March 17 has caused dismay in Bangladesh. It is not exactly a “crisis” in Bangla-India relations but is more like an embarrassment for both sides. India was concerned that the invite could face problems as public feelings about Modi’s India is quite negative in Bangladesh now. Long term issues and immediate ones like the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the National Register of Citizens (NRC) have been responsible for the embarrassment. For Hasina, it’s Mujib not Modi  The Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wazed has a very strong grip on the political handle in her country, and she won’t allow anything to cloud the situation including a diplomatic tiff. To Hasina, the matter is not about diplomacy but about the celebrations being carried out properly without a hitch. Read Also:Rivers of conflict The events will also be commemorating the 1971 war victory. So India’s role in that has been officially stated. The CAA officially accuses Bangladesh of oppressing its minorities and Sheikh Hasina certainly feels offended by it. However, India’s declared “best friend” isn’t showing much anger because of its size and situation. India is a reality and a very big and often useful one at that. Any diplomatic conflict with it won’t help Bangladesh. A matter of visit diplomacy  India still seems to make its Bangladesh policy based on the latter’s military-economic capacity. Many thought there was much reciprocity after Bangladesh ended its sanctuary to India’s North-Eastern rebels after Sheikh Hasina came to power. The questions now being asked is: Is India taking Bangladesh for granted? China’s emergence has changed the scenario. India is no longer the number one trading partner, a spot which is now occupied by China. But India is right in thinking that Bangladesh’s capacity to maneuver is limited as Bangladesh is dependent on Indo-China relations as well. The situation now is more complex than before. Recently, visits by Bangladeshi leaders and officials to India were cancelled. This has become regular since the passing of the CAA and the launch of the NRC. The latest was a long agreed tour by the Speaker of the Bangladesh National assembly Dr. Shrin Sharmin Chowdhury just a week back. The only ministerial level visitor in the recent past has been the Information Minister but that was barely covered in the Bangladesh media. Read Also:India’s bid to isolate Pakistan fails These are signs of a growing distance between Bangladesh and India with a weaker country sending signals to a stronger one. In that context, India’s Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla’s visit to Dhaka aroused interest in Bangladesh. It was billed as a pre-visit tour but he hadn’t said anything to make Bangladeshis feel better. He reiterated the Indian stand that the CAA and NCR are India’s internal matter and that they won’t affect Bangladesh. This argument doesn’t make much sense to Bangladeshis though. If anyone is identified as a “Bangladeshi” in India and punished for it, how could it not be Bangladesh’s concern? Bangladesh’s official position on Modi’s visit has been set and that is “hospitality” and “thanks” for India’s role in 1971. It is not Modi but India that is important at this juncture. Is China feeling slightly nervous?  Interestingly, it seems that China, the other country that matters in Bangladesh, is feeling a little edgy about how things might go in Bangladesh. It knows that Bangladesh has used China to balance India’s pressure and that Bangladesh is the recipient of large scale investment. For China, the worry is generated by the corona virus scenario which has dented its confidence a bit. Earlier it had grown to feel almost invulnerable, particularly when dealing with small countries like Bangladesh. But so great is the anxiety following the corona virus epidemic, that China has sought reassurance from the Bangladesh government that its investments and projects will not be disrupted. Bangladesh has said that several major infrastructure projects will be affected due to the corona virus but has no plans to slow down. Project costs have already been increased. The biggest prestige project, the Padma Bridge project, will go ahead. Even as the virus crisis raged, several new project documents were shared. Bangladesh’s own demons  Bangladesh battles its own demons, one of which is the appalling state of the financial sector, hit by theft and mismanagement. The scale of both is so big that the national economy is reeling from their impact. The regulatory bodies, not famous for efficiency, appear helpless. As expected, connection-capitalism dominates the proceedings which means that not many will be caught and punished. How the storm will be weathered, if at all it is, is another matter. Compared to the financial crisis, Modi’s visit is really a minor matter. Bangladesh will neither say nor do anything to embarrass Modi. And the centenary is an event of a lifetime and Sheikh Hasina will not let anything controversial happen in Bangla-India relations in that critical context. However, whether India’s closest friend is closest anymore is to be seen. Diplomacy is all about mutual convenience but the world is hugely uncertain and is more so now. How such matters will shape future relations can only be a matter of speculation.