Shamsuddin Ahmed
In Maldives, former president Mohammed Nasheed ousted by security forces backed by a popular movement for anti-constitutional acts and pro-Indian stance in early 2011 polled 45 percent votes in the September 7 presidential election but short to win, forcing a run-off.
He has the prospect of returning to power with backing of powerful neighbour India. But he will face an uphill task. In all likelihood, his opponents may rally behind his nearest rival Yameen Abdulla, half-brother of former president Mohammed Abdul Gayoom, to defeat him in the run-off scheduled for September 28.
In the first democratic election of 2008, incumbent president Abdul Gayoom had cast 40 percent votes and Nasheed got 24 percent. But later in the run-off, all the parties were united against Gayoom, who ruled the country with iron hands for three decades, and elected Nasheed with a thumping majority. As indication suggest, the same outcome is likely to take place this time also.
The results announced by the Election Commission showed none of the four contestants received majority of more than 50 percent of votes to win as mandated by the constitution. Nasheed of Maldivan Democratic Party (MDP) polled 45 percent, Yameen Abdulla of Progressive Party 25 percent, Gashim Ibrahim of Jumhoree Coaliation 24 percent and incumbent president Mohammed Waheed who ran as Independent got barely 5 percent votes.
Delhi’s influence
Next fortnight will witness Delhi’s efforts in wooing either of Progressive Party and Jumhoree Coalition to support Nasheed or keep all his opponents divided. Faced with a criminal case for ordering arrest of a senior judge before his ouster, Nasheed was about to be arrested some three months ago. The charge could bar him from contesting the election. But Delhi prevailed, and her intensive diplomatic efforts kept Nasheed afloat in the election race.
Needless to say that India would do its best to have a government docile to Delhi for safeguarding her security and economic interest. Maldives is no less important to India in view of Chinese design for ‘Spring of Pearls’ (to encircle India) and Beijing’s slow expansion of sphere of influence in the region. Trading of minerals and energy worth billions of dollars every year passes near the Maldives, which is strategically located astride the major sea lanes in the India Ocean. China has already made inroads in some areas of Maldives and it is said the number of visitors from China was the highest among foreign tourists last year. Indian security experts have accused China of harbouring ambitions to set up a submarine base in Morao, the biggest island of Maldives.
Maldives presidential election results have no doubt reflected the trend of democratic elections in third world countries where influence of foreign powers and rigging of polls were accused. Analysts said although peaceful, the election cannot be considered free, fair and credible. There is a growing concern that the figures revealed by the Election Commission as the temporary results do not reflect will of the people.
Vote rigging?
Jumhooree coalition of Gashim Ibrahim, a business tycoon, said election was subject to massive manipulation and rigging and threatened to challenge the results in the court. It said that at some polling stations votes cast outnumbered the registered voters. One of the examples Jumhooree cited is Laamu Kunahandhoo polling centre where 690 votes were cast as against 438 registered voters. In another centre, Meemu Raihmandhoo 197 votes were cast as against 118 registered voters. There are cases of multiple entries of the same voters and the registry of voters in more than one ballot box. Only 4 eligible women voters work in Paradise Island where results showed 213 women voted from that resort. Nasheed, elected president in 2008 with blessings from India, was ousted from power by a mutiny of security forces within two years. He was accused of acting against the constitution, bartering away national interest and promoting other religions in his Islamic state where non-Muslims are barred from citizenship. Popular movement against him was intensified after he ordered the army for arrest of a senior judge. A member of SAARC and known as tourist paradise, Maldives has a population of 3.5 lakh and the number of eligible voters is 2.40 lakh. Election Commission claimed 83 percent votes was cast in the September 7 election.
On ouster of President Nasheed in early 2011, vice-president Dr Mohammed Waheed came to power. Served in the United Nations for more than a decade, he is known as nationalist, a man of integrity and simplicity. He proved his political acumen in controlling the unrest erupted during and after the ouster of President Nashed with utmost patience. Months ago his government has scrapped a deal with Indian construction giant GMR for development and management of the Malidives International Airport to the displeasure of Delhi.
Nasheed had favoured GMR by awarding the uneven contract when he was in power. Government party leaders often accused India of interfering in internal affairs of Maldives and the Indian High Commissioner in Male acting as if he was governor of an Indian state. In his last national day speech Dr Waheed cautioned the people against intrusion of secularism. “Waves of secularism are striking our shores,” he said. It is interesting that he bagged the lowest number of votes in Saturday’s democratic election.
Source: Weekly Holiday