India-Pakistan drifting toward war

Unlike the marching to the battle fields in the 460 BC of the Persians and the Spartans amidst blazing bugle sounds and clatters of bows, lances and arrows, soldiers of India and Pakistan had moved discreetly to the vicinity of the LoC (line of control) without sporting such classical fun fare and glitters.

The two armies are wary and aware what might befall them and their countries if and when another full blown war breaks out between the two nuclear- armed rivals.

For, unlike in the past, this is the first time the two main protagonists of South Asia had raised their pitches of threats to the possibility of a nuclear exchange while, as this write up is being crafted, six more ceasefire violations in 24 hours by Pakistan of the 1972 Simla agreement had been reported in the Indian media. The war hysteria is spreading like blowing winds, making one wonder who to blame for this sudden escalation of tension, proxy wars, and cross-border shootings which are slowly nudging toward what historians might label as the fourth Indo-Pak war.

The bone of the contention is still Kashmir, which, despite being a UN-designated disputed territory, the legacy of its colonial predicaments linger long enough to destabilize the entire region from time to time. In 1947, the Hindu ruler of the Muslim-predominant Kashmir chose to remain with Delhi when almost all other major Muslim-predominant territories of India (excepting Hydrabad) joined Pakistan.

The rivalry thus given birth to, and the occupation of what is known as the Azad Kashmir by Pakistan, created a de facto border of about 670 km along the Kashmir valley while the rest of the 3,340 km long Indo-Pak border came into existence through the partition agreement.

As well, in the Simla agreement of 1972, ceasefire lines for the entire Indo-Pak border was delineated as the line where two armies stopped on December 17, 1971, when they agreed to end the 1971 war following Pakistan army’s surrender in Dhaka a day before.

Yet, by declaring on October 1 that Indian Special Forces had crossed the LoC and raided into five terror hideouts three miles deep inside Pakistan, India had violated the territorial integrity of Pakistan.

Taken aback, Pakistan had flatly denied that such an incursion occurred; either not to make it incumbent on its military to launch a retaliatory attack on India, or to preserve its entrenched claims that it doesn’t shelter any militant or separatist elements within its territory, which the Indian forces claim to have dismantled by this latest surgical operation.

As expected, the Indian declaration of a naked aggression vaulted Islamabad into war footing, prompting PM Nawaz Sharif to take into confidence all opposition parties in a joint parliamentary meeting where he’d discussed the arrays of threats posed by India. He also quickly met the armed forces’ chiefs and the strategic force commanders manning nuclear and other missile arsenals. Latest reports suggest, Pakistan had also mobilized its forces in key and vulnerable spots of mutual borders where cross border shootings and mortar firing compelled bordering people to flee.

Meanwhile, on October 3, an Indian army jawan was reported injured in a prolonged gunfight at the Pallanwala border, by Pakistani shelling, claimed Indian media. This clearly indicated that the Indian army remained mobilized in offensive posture within three miles of the mutual border, which is construed as an aggressive posture under the laws of war

Above all, as the recurring violations of ceasefire intensified since the crisis entered a new phase on September 18 when 18 Indian soldiers were killed by a terrorist attack in the Uri military camp, possibility of another Indo-Pak war inched alarmingly closer. Worst still, another attack on October 2 in Baramulla, 50 miles north of Uri, at the headquarters of the 46 Rastriya Rifle (RR), left one BSF jawan dead, four other injured, along with three army jawans from the RR.

Pakistan not only chose to keep its lips shut on the latest terrorist attacks on Indian military installations, as well as the ceasefire violations reported in the Indian media, it had even managed to convince international media outlets like the New York Times, Washington Post and the CNN that the Indian claim of a surgical strike last week inside Pakistani territory is a fantasy, myth, and outright invention of lies aimed at domestic public gallery.

That was bound to stir the sizzling pot within the Indian raucous political circles, putting PM Modi into a tight spot. Within India, leading Congress leader Senjoy Nirupam and Aam Admi Party (AAP) chief Arvind Kejrawal had challenged the Modi government’s claim of such an attack having taken place inside Pakistan. The two opposition leaders say the Narendra Modi regime is reaping political dividends in the confusion created by not proving that Indian forces did conduct such raids inside Pakistan, which Islamabad doggedly denies.

Whatever one might deduce from these and other disturbing events and occurrences threatening peace and stability of the region, the two armies are reportedly resorting to exchange of gunfire and shells while militants fighting for decades to liberate Kashmir are moving more aggressively to stir an uprising in the Indian-controlled Jammu and Kashmir where life has been stalled for almost 90 days amidst clamping of curfews, and killing and maiming of thousands by the security forces. Despite lifting of the curfew lately, the desire of the people not to call off their agitation movement is gaining more traction as clashes along the LoC intensify.

Equally troubling is the fact that the urgent talks between the National Security Advisers (NSA) of the two countries following the Baramulla terror attack did little to rein in the increasing ceasefire violations at the LoCs and other bordering areas along Punjab and Maharastra.

Another observable fact is that the Pakistani media and the government aren’t as bullish and bellicose as the Indians are. Pakistanis are playing it cool, with much care. Yet, India thinks an escalation at the LoC can shift the focus away from the Kashmir uprising while Pakistan believes time may be ripe to snatch Kashmir away from the Delhi’s tutelage in the manner Delhi had surgically separated East Pakistan from the West in 1971. A retired Pakistani General said, “India has to man too many hostile borders. Our hands are free of such inhibitions.”

Missing from the narratives rendered by the two protagonists is the fear of a much larger regional showdown, with the Chinese involvement in the fray if Delhi decides to slam naval blockade on China’s supply route running through Pakistani ports and roads via the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Such a prospect will loom larger if the US too begins to collaborate with India to choke Beijing off its alternative supply route running through the Strait of Malacca. The two routes are too indispensible to keeping China’s 11 trillion dollar strong economy in the bubble.

As well, there’s another eastern question which both Beijing and Delhi find unpalatable but imposingly pertinent. The age old Chinese claim on the Arunachol Pradesh and parts of Assam may open up a new theatre of the war in the Northeast India, abutting Bangladesh, if the war lingers inconclusively. And, such a regional escalation may also unleash territorial claims by many local groups and nationalities aspiring to become independent nation-states since the 1950s.

While we hope for the sanity to prevail, the humanity cannot be faulted for being on the knees in supplication to bring upon divine intervention on a region inhabited by one quarter of global population and generating over 15 trillion dollars per year in combined economic output.

Source: New Age