Fernandez-Taranco’s bottomline

One can say that it is his — and the UN’s — bottomline.

Fernandez-Taranco has encouraged those taking part in the polls ‘to work together and to engage in constructive dialogue’.

So far, so good. The intentions are noble and none in Bangladesh will doubt that the country’s fledgling democracy can go forward without ‘peaceful, inclusive and credible elections’.

An election like the one held in December 2008. That is the benchmark because it was conducted peacefully, voter turnout was high and none raised a finger to allege foul play.

So unless the Opposition alliance led by the BNP joins the polls, it cannot be an inclusive election — and one that gives voters a ‘real choice’.

Interestingly, when Fernandez-Taranco ruled out discussing the caretaker issue on his arrival in Dhaka last Friday, he was perhaps indicating a solution will have to be found without trying to revoke the 15th amendment of the Constitution that scrapped the system.

As a veteran UN official, Fernandez-Taranco surely realises that in a democracy, it is not possible to undo what has become law through the constitutional process, unless one is prepared to go through the constitutional rigmarole all over again.

So, the UN official is trying to be pragmatic — and why not?

The fact that the BNP has continued to engage with Fernandez-Taranco and the process of dialogue he initiated would mean that the main Opposition party is also reconciled to a solution that would fall short of its demand for restoration of the caretaker.

Though, it serves to give the party a point of bargain, from where to climb down to something more mutually acceptable.

Fernandez-Taranco has also tried to figure out whether the polls can be delayed.

That is something HM Ershad and Kamal Hossain and other leading civil society figures have also strongly pitched for — a postponement of the elections.

Fernandez-Taranco tried checking that out with both the Prime Minister and the Chief Election Commissioner.

That indicates the UN official is seeking to buy some time to work for a solution — and also create some political space for it.

If the polls are postponed, that might somewhat assuage the BNP that their agitation has led to achievement of an immediate objective — of stalling the Jan 5 polls.

That could be seen — or at least be projected — as a setback for Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League.

That might give the BNP leadership the chance to go back to the grassroots, claiming partial victory.

The Prime Minister has said it is up to the Election Commission to consider deferring the date for the elections.

The Chief Election Commissioner has said a postponement or changes to the polls timeline can only be considered if the prospect of a settlement between the two major political alliances is bright.

Or else, a postponement for the sake of it will not make any sense, unless it helps to ensure the participation of the BNP and its allies in the election.

But the polls cannot also be pushed back beyond Jan 24 — that is the constitutional deadline.

Unless one were to call for declaring a State of Emergency on grounds of sharply deteriorating law and order situation that makes a peaceful poll impossible at the moment.

For Hasina, that is a choice in the extreme that helps her buy time for a solution.

But though some senior Awami League leaders may feel that is the only viable option left, Hasina is known to be not favourably disposed to the idea.

She might feel it is better for her to go ahead with the Jan 5 elections — come what may.

Because that is the only way the Awami League can surely win the elections with Hasina at the helm of the party.

By all indications, the BNP’s best chance of a win is if they contest the polls now and make the most of the anti-incumbency factor.

Communist leader Mujahidul Islam Selim’s remark that the BNP, provoked by Jamaat-e-Islami, is walking into the Awami League’s trap is worth pondering about.

Fernandez-Taranco is not expected to bother about poll prospects of a particular party because his task is to ensure ‘inclusive, peaceful and credible polls’.

He has tried to push both battling alliances very hard to a consensus, even if that means climbing down from their extreme positions.

But does anyone know what is that elusive midpoint?

Ershad has given some idea of what that could be.

He has told the BBC that if Hasina steps down as the head of the executive, the BNP will feel reassured to contest and will join the polls, without pressing for holding the polls under a non-political caretaker.

One has wait to find out whether what Ershad says is true or not — but Fernandez-Taranco is surely not going to find it easy achieving a consensus.

In his four years as the UN’s assistant secretary-general for political affairs, this is surely his most difficult assignment — even with 25 years of UN experience behind him.

Before his appointment as ASG for Political Affairs, Fernandez-Taranco served as Resident Coordinator in the United Republic of Tanzania. Between 1998 and 2001, he served as Resident Representative, UN Resident Coordinator and Deputy Special Representative of the Secretary-General in Haiti.

From 1994 to 1998, he was Deputy Special Representative of the Administrator of the West Bank and Gaza Programme of Assistance to the Palestinian people. For five years, he also served as Deputy Assistant Administrator and Deputy Regional Director in the Regional Bureau of Arab States in the United Nations Development Programme.

So the Argentine has come a long way since joining the UN as a volunteer in Benin more than two decades ago.

Fernandez-Taranco’s task is made more difficult because the Bangladesh crisis has regional implications.

Though the US and India are strategic partners ever since their nuclear deal, they differ sharply on Bangladesh.

In the run up to this election, the US has seemed to prefer the BNP return to power while India seems to prefer the Awami League staying on.

Officially both say they are committed to accepting whoever comes to power, but they have given enough indications of their choices.

Delhi has given strong indications that its relations with Washington will suffer much if it is pushed hard by Uncle Sam on Bangladesh.

The perception in Delhi is the US is trying a Syria in Bangladesh — siding with forces that pander to fundamentalism that will jeopardise Indian security.

The US is determined to block Chinese inroads into Bangladesh, using India and by pushing it into a long-drawn confrontation with China — but that is something India is unwilling to play out.

A former US state department official William Avery says in his recent book ‘China’s Nightmare, America’s Dream’:
“Bangladesh, because of its access to the Bay of Bengal, holds vulnerabilities for India. India cannot tolerate any further Chinese incursion into Bangladesh, where the Chinese are already expanding the Chittagong port and now plan to construct a deep sea harbour further down the coast … India should treat the Bay of Bengal as its own waters. Permitting the Chinese navy to dock in a Bangladesh port is little different than letting it sail up the Ganges”.

But at the moment, India seems more worried with the US policy on Bangladesh than taking on Chinese interests in the country.

That complicates the scenario at a time when Bangladesh faces huge political turmoil and even what the UN does to handle the crisis may be interpreted as part of the larger politics in the region.