Special Correspondent
Fumes of ambiguity have cleared to a great extent. Now we can have some clear views of things that are likely to happen.
The ruling party and its allies have finally taken a firm position that they will hold elections as per the schedule declared by the Election Commission. The Awami League General Secretary has made it plain that any change in schedule will not be accepted by the AL. So the wishes of the CEC find no place in the AL book. The CEC had earlier hinted at an opportunity of changing the dates of polls formalities if the main opposition decided to participate in the upcoming polls. The Ershad episode is yet to take the final twist
prior to the polls billed for January 5, 2014. Ershad’s dramatics and declarations have indeed been made to look rather convincing this time round. He submitted to the media that he had to do things that he did not like to do. The sword of Damocles hangs over his head. The corruption cases against him, now numbering 74, are till alive and kicking. His submission makes one thing obvious is that he was always a tool of convenience used by his allies, mainly the Awami League.
Will JP ministers resign?
There were large contingent of police and Rab outside Ershad’s residence immediately after he declared his latest intention of withdrawing from the polls. There has been great excitement and wild guesses going round. Late at night Ershad had threatened to kill himself if any attempt was made to arrest him.
His ministers have told the media that they will submit their resignation on thursday as decided by the party chairman. But things did not go as planned. The ministers did not resign until Thursday afternoon. GM Kader attended his office. Three other ministers met the Prime Minister and informed that they will make statements to the press. Meanwhile, Jatiya Party sources said that the ministers who will not resign will be expelled from the party. So the drama goes on.
It is likely that there could be another split in the Jatiya Party.
With local skirmishes on, we have high-profile visit of Indian foreign secretary Shujata Singh. We know the kind of stake the Indians have in our politics. We have been with the Indian policies even before our independence in 1971. Shujata Singh has not kept anything secret. She was here on a whirlwind trip. Her agenda was full and she made it known to the leaders of the country what India likes to happen in Bangladesh.
SH/Shujata meets Ershad, Khaleda
Her meeting with the Prime Minister has been the usual Indian support that she has in her endeavors. She met Ershad and tried to persuade him in taking part in the upcoming polls which Ershad declined. According to Ershad Shujata Singh told her that if his party did not take part in the elections, and if other parties win, that will help Jamaat to make their way in…”
She wanted to meet Begum Khaleda Zia in a one-to-one meeting which the BNP leader refused. Rather she preferred an open group meeting.
While talking to the media, Shujata Singh said she was not here for mediation. So it was a fact finding mission. If India wanted credible and inclusive polls, the statement could have been different. She also said that India wanted participation of maximum number of parties. But she was very careful not to mention, for once, the name of the main opposition. She did not say, India wanted the participation of the main opposition BNP to make the polls credible. Are we to understand that all India wants is the number of parties, not the size or the credible ones?
The world over, if in any democracy, major political party or parties don’t participate in national polls, it is not accepted in any forum, be it local, regional or global. Same thing would happen in Bangladesh, if the main opposition opts out or kept out of the election race the election will be rendered meaningless.
SH/Delhi’s concern extemism
India’s another concern is the rise of religious fundamentalists in Bangladesh. Shujata Singh expressed her fear about a possible spilling of violence into the Indian side. To speak of Indian scenario, the fundamentalist acts are regular and conspicuous. The rise of Modi is now feared by all classes. Peace loving Indians have been thinking hard to stop Modi becoming the first ‘extremist Prime Minister of India. Our conditions are not that bad yet.
Not only India, the commonwealth is also concerned about the current situation. The commonwealth team was here to see the ground realities and will decide later if it will send election monitoring teams.
It appears that no amount of foreign insistence or persuasion will be able to convince the ruling party to accommodate the main opposition in the polls. The PM and her party is unwavering to go ahead with the polls, with or without the parties that matter.
One forecast could be made with conviction that we have entered into catastrophic times.
Source: Weekly Holiday