Photo: Reuters
The latest report (published only today, 31 March 2014) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) is not a happy reading for anybody in the whole world. The report states quite clearly that no one, whether in the advanced affluent countries or in the poorer developing countries, will be spared from the effects of climate change. There is no escape from the climate change, as portrayed by the leading environmental scientists of the world.
So, what is this climate change? Basically, any change in climate that is due to natural causes such as earth’s volcanic eruptions, changes in solar activities or natural climatic variations over millennia such as the onset of ice age or the periodic thaw etc. are disregarded from consideration of this climate change. These are natural processes over which humans have no control whatsoever or humans have no part to play. On the other hand, the changes that are imposed on the climate by human activities or interference resulting in the emission of green-house gases (hydrofluorocarbons, oxides of carbon etc.) and changing the composition of the atmosphere are assessed and discussed in this Assessment Report 5 (AR5).
Seven years ago, in 2007, the IPCC produced its earlier climate change assessment report (AR4) where it reported that global warming was taking place and the adverse consequences would affect not only human race but also animals, birds, flora and fauna. George W Bush, the then President of the USA, dismissed the report outright as nothing more than scare-mongering by left leaning scientists and he along with his administration insisted that there was no conclusive evidence whatsoever that human interference was responsible for any claimed change in climate.
The scientific community, nonetheless, pointed out that George Bush would say that because of his enormous stake in oil industry in Texas, America. As America was the biggest polluter of the atmosphere, any admission would require enormous expense to rectify the polluting practices. So the cheapest and easiest option was to deny the whole scenario. Hardly did he realise that within a year or so, a devastating and unprecedented hurricane, called Katrina, would damage Louisiana so severely that his presidency would become shaky! Subsequently drought in mid-America, unprecedented drought and bush fire in California and extreme cold spell (-20⁰C or less) in the East coast of America and Canada over a period of eight weeks or so all point in the direction that something is drastically wrong in the world weather system.
The main theme of the present report as well as the previous reports is that no one with full confidence can predict the full extent of impacts and vulnerability. What one can say is that with differing degree of confidence one can list the effects of climate change. The major elements of these likely changes are as follows:
In large number of places, melting snow and ice due to global warming are changing the hydrological pattern affecting water resources in terms of quality and quantity. (In Bangladesh the absence of flood over the last few years may be seen as a desirable thing. But due to less amount of water flow from the Himalayas, the rivers are drying up and silting is taking place all along the river. The river Jamuna is almost dry in many places. Even the mighty river Padma is a shell of itself with a trickle of water flow. Ground water is still abundant in Bangladesh, but over a period of time when that water is used up, drought is the most likely outcome.)
The mighty Padma over which the Colonial Britain constructed the 6 mile long bridge, called the Hardinge Bridge, in 1900 now stands dry, except for a short stretch.
1. Due to lack of water and other climate changes, freshwater and marine species will either dwindle or relocate themselves in more hospitable situation. The fishes which were abundant in some places will no longer be available and that will have adverse consequences on the livelihood of human beings.
2. Crop yields will probably improve and crop varieties will increase due to warmer temperature in high latitude countries such as Britain, Germany, Scandinavia and other temperate countries. Conversely, yield will decrease due to warmer temperature and reduced water in tropical and arid countries.
3. Climate changes will have unpredictable changes in weather pattern. This is due to the fact that gulfstream which flows from Atlantic to Indian and Pacific oceans will move somewhat northward due to less amount cold water from the arctic region. Also the jet stream in the higher atmosphere will change direction resulting in excessive rainfall in some regions and drought conditions in other regions. The recent unprecedented flood in Britain, excessive rainfall in East Europe over the last few years and at the same time heat waves and drought in Australia, California, Mexico etc. all point to that direction.
4. Global warming will cause polar ice caps to melt and so the sea level will increase. In addition, the volume expansion of water will raise water level in the sea. By 2030 to 50, if global temperature rises by 1.5⁰C to 2.0⁰C, the sea level may go up by as much as 1 metre. It must be mentioned that the average landmass in Bangladesh is about 1 metre above sea level. This does not mean that all of Bangladesh will be under water. It means that all the coastal areas, many islands, many low lying areas will be submerged. Because the dominant water ingress is from the sea, no crop will grow in the saline water and large influx of human beings will put excessive pressure in already overcrowded Bangladeshi cities.
5. There is no direct human health effect due to climate change, although human suffering will increase due to migration, overcrowding etc. When large scale migration from one area to another area takes place, there may be serious conflicts not only between the people of those regions but also between the States involved. Already the large migration (illegal, for that matter) from North Africa to European countries is taking place and that is putting strain on socio-economic conditions of the targeted countries. (When in few decades time, tens of millions of Bangladeshis are rendered homeless due to submersion under sea water, these people will face an unprecedented human catastrophe!)
6. There is, of course, some positive outcome although it is not yet clear whether that would be desirable or not. The temperate countries will have more tolerable temperature and crop varieties and plants will expand. But the unknown factor is that whether the native plants will survive or not.
Altogether, the climate change will cause a disturbance in human habitation which human beings have never experienced before. Whereas some years ago, this climate change could have been halted or even reversed, but now the report says quite categorically that the change is severe, pervasive and irreversible.
Needless to say, the effects are severe. No human being, whether in the advanced countries or in the poorer countries, is immune from its effects. The shortages of food production will cause an increase in food prices, which will affect everybody.
The effects are pervasive. In other words, effects cannot be confined to limited areas or regions. In the global economy, in the global atmosphere, one region affects another region invariably. That was precisely the reason why the world wanted to take collective action to combat global warming few years back, but America rejected it on the excuse of technical ambiguity and China dug its heel in reprisal. Other countries like India, Brazil, Argentina and other countries raised the point that they have the right to pollute the atmosphere to steam ahead with their industrial development, as the advanced countries did during the industrial revolution. The end result was that no concerted effort with strict goal had taken place.
Now the IPCC states that the effects are irreversible. In other words, there is nothing now that can be done to reverse it. We will have to face the disaster, like it or not. But what can be done now to limit its impacts is to take urgent actions. The leaders of the world should rise above the selfish national interests to save the earth globally and thereby save their individual nations.
Source: Bd news24