Bangladesh has been seeing a rapid rise in the coronavirus infection and deaths at the end of the third month since it recorded its first case in March. The number of infections, deaths and infection detection increased significantly this month leading Bangladesh as one of the 20 worst-hit countries in the world.
Bangladesh recorded its first coronavirus case on 8 March.
The number of infections has risen for the fourth month in a row in most of the top 20 countries while in some countries it continues for the fifth month. The prevalence of infection in countries in Asia and the Americas is more prolonged than in Europe. However, in developed countries, COVID-19 tests, contact tracing and lockdown management are much better than in Bangladesh.
The country may experience the deteriorating situation by the end of this week. If effective and strict measures are not taken immediately, the infection is expected to continue for at least another month.
On 8 March, three people were reported to have contracted the infection. The number remained the same till 14 March. The following week, the number of confirmed cases rose to 24. Two of the first Three infected were from Italy. Another came in contact with an infected person.
The virus has been found in people from at least six countries so far. Initially, the infection was limited to those who came back and came in contact with them, but later it became widespread. The total number of patients identified in the country till Sunday was 65,769. Of these, 888 died and 13,903 recovered.
In the first month of infection in the country till 8 April, 218 patients were identified, which is 0.33 per cent of the total patients so far. In the second month, 12,916 patients were detected, which is 19.63 per cent of the total number of infected. In the third month, a total of 52,635 people were infected till Sunday, which is 80 per cent of the total number of infected people.
Today is the end of third month of infection. Eighty per cent of diagnoses and 77 per cent of deaths occurred in the third month.
To prevent the infection, the government declared general holiday in the country from 26 March, creating a virtual lockdown. However, the garment factories were reopened on 27 April. Two weeks later, in the tenth week of infection (10–16 May), the situation begins to deteriorate rapidly. That trend is still continuing.
Experts fear that the rate of infection detection will increase further from this week as a lot of people have travelled to the village on the occasion of Eid last month. Shops were also open at the time. After Eid, the holiday was extended till 31 May.
Professor Nazrul Islam told Prothom Alo that the rate of infection detection started increasing two weeks after the opening of the garment factory and the relaxation of lockdown. Its effects are still being seen.
The effect of relaxing during Eid and later lifting of lockdown will be seen in a couple of days, he added. The detection rate can go up to 25 per cent. He emphasised on the need for effective zone-based lockdowns while ensuring food and medical care for all to keep the situation under control.
An analysis of data from the World Health Organization shows that the fourth month of infection is now over in 10 of the top 20 affected countries. The remaining 9 countries are in the fourth month. The fourth month will start from tomorrow in Bangladesh. In 13 of these countries, the transmission was high in the fourth month. In some countries, the infection is increasing in the fifth month.
However, in six countries, the trend has been declining since the end of the third month. Five of them are European countries – Spain, Italy, Germany, Turkey and France. The other one is China.
Brazil, Peru and Iran are in the fourth month of infection. The fourth month has started in Peru since yesterday. Infections are still growing rapidly in these countries. According to the World Health Organization, around 250,000 patients were diagnosed in 11 days of the fourth month in Brazil, which is the second most affected.
China, France, Turkey, Chile, Mexico, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Qatar and Bangladesh are in the top 11 to 20th place. Infections and deaths are still on the rise in countries except in Turkey, France and China. These countries are in the fourth month of infection.
Neighbouring India reported its first coronavirus case on 30 January. It is now the fifth month of infection in the country. In India, 3 patients were identified in the first month that rose to 55,000 in the first six days of the fifth month.
In Pakistan, another South Asian country, 44,508 people were infected in the third month while in the first 11 days of the fourth month, around 36 thousand have been infected.
* This report, originally published in Prothom Alo print edition, has been rewritten in English by Farjana Liakat