If an election was held today, 41.5% would vote for the Awami League and 37.6% for the BNP, a survey has revealed.
However, with a margin of error of 2.53% and a significant amount of 13.9% still undecided or refusing to reveal who they would vote for, the electoral environment remained competitive, the survey report concluded.
The survey was conducted by a US-based organisation Nielsen and endorsed by Democracy International Inc, which provided analytical and technical services to the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and other development partners.
The Democracy International conducted the survey across Bangladesh after the January 5 poll funded jointly by the US and the UK.
The nationwide opinion poll, conducted from January 11-15, was based on face-to-face interviews of 1,500 Bangladeshi adults of various ages. The survey revealed that although it has not yet been a month that the Awami League had assumed power for the second time in a row, its popularity was already sliding.
When asked whether they would have voted for the Awami League had the January 5 election been fully participatory, 42.7% said they would have. However, when asked whether they would vote for the Awami League if there was an election right now, only 41.5% said they would – marking a slide of more than 1%.
About 37.6% of the respondents said they would vote for the BNP if an election was held right now. However, 35.1% of the respondents said they would have chosen BNP if the January 5 poll was fully participatory marking a 2.5% rise in popularity for BNP.
The survey marked a more than 8% rise in the number of voters who did not know or were yet to decide who to vote for.
Some 13.9% of the respondents said they were not sure who they would vote for if an election was held right now. About 5.1% of them said they were undecided during the election.
Demanding restoration of the caretaker government system for overseeing the national election, the BNP boycotted the poll, virtually giving its arch rival Awami League a walkover to form the 10th parliament with absolute majority. 153 out of the 300 parliamentary seats saw representatives elected uncontested.
Apart from the face-to-face interviews, the survey also constituted telephone interviews.
That section of the opinion poll also showed that the Awami League, with 37% responding in its favour, was slightly more popular than the BNP, who clinched favourable opinions from 31% of the respondents, if votes were held right now.
Out of the 1,044 surveyed over phone, 23% said they were not sure who to vote for in case there was an election right now.
Of those surveyed face-to-face, 69% felt that the country was heading in the wrong direction because of political conflicts, too many hartals and price hike. In a survey conducted in November last year, about 62% thought the same way.
According to the opinion poll report, 72% of the people identified political instability as the biggest problem for the country.
When asked about immediate dialogues, 70% of the respondents said the two parties, namely Awami League and BNP, should engage in immediate talks to resolve the prevailing political stalement.
Some 57% of the respondents said the current Awami League government was not credible.
The Democracy International Inc. survey also reconfirmed that 40% votes were cast in the 10th parliamentary election as was claimed by the Election Commission despite boycott by the BNP.
According to the survey report, 40.7% of the respondents said they had practiced their voting rights.
Source: Dhaka Tribune