EIU report on Bangladesh 15 December 2023
- We anticipate that populist measures and the maintenance of food and energy subsidies, along with a strong rural support base, will underpin the return to power of the ruling Awami League (AL) for a fourth consecutive term following Bangladesh’s general election in January. This will include the reelection as prime minister of Sheikh Hasina Wajed, the world’s longest-serving female leader.
- Violent protests are likely ahead of the election, with the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) insisting on the installation of a caretaker government ahead of the polls. The government’s strong control over the security forces will ensure the maintenance of basic law and order, but the AL will be keen to ensure that the BNP still participates in the election, to ensure that the result is seen as credible.
- A flawed election could lead to strains in Bangladesh’s relationship with the US and the EU. This poses economic and trade risks, given that Bangladesh’s economy is reliant on ready-made garment exports, with the US and the EU acting as key export markets. Troubled relations with Western powers could allow China’s economic influence to grow in Bangladesh; China is already Bangladesh’s key import partner and arms supplier, and is financing several infrastructure mega-projects.
Major infrastructure projects in Bangladesh that are funded by Chinese firms
Project Chinese investment in US$ bn Status and planned completion date
Padma multipurpose bridge 3.7 Operational since June 2022
Karnaphuli River tunnel 0.7 Operational since October 2023
Dhaka Elevated Expressway 1.0 June 2024
Bangladesh-China Friendship Bridge 0.1 Operational since September 2022
Dhaka-Sylhet four-lane highway 1.9 December 2026
Payra 1,320-MW power plant 1.9 Operational since March 2022
Source: EIU.