In case it wasn’t clear, the bully in this scenario is Trump and the strong is China. China is not as strong globally as the US and may never be but China is not a country to be played with like Mexico or those non-threat countries that Trump has banned people from. Trump knows that the US suffers quickly without trading partners like China, Mexico and Canada but his campaign depended on him appearing tough on trade. So he picks on the weaker of the perceived evil trading partners and that’s Mexico.

There is over $600 billion dollars worth of trade between China and the US, most of it involves imports into the US which the US cannot survive long or well without. It’s not just plastic spoons and cups, it’s major electronics and electronic parts, it’s auto parts, it’s steel… It’s not just things that an average family needs daily. It’s things that the average american company needs.

In most scenarios, China easily survives a trade war with the US. China imports little from the US. China can scale down exports, increase exports to other and new trading partners and stockpile while US citizens and US corporations quickly turn on their government because so many goods become scarce, expensive and/or low quality.

China also owns over a trillion dollars worth of US treasury debt. If they decide to dump it and/or stop buying it, it could easily start a sell off and big drop in the value of US treasury, giving the US difficulties in finding money to simply run their government. Default becomes a possibility. Again, in this scenario, US citizens and US corporations quickly turn on their government. China also owns a fantastic amount of other forms of US debt. It’s not just the owning part. It’s the consistently buying more part that helps fund the US government.

Japan also owns over a trillion dollars worth of US treasury debt.

Basically, every single american owes over $3000 to each country. That’s every man, woman and child.

And it is likely that these and other countries will eventually take economic advantage of the poor leadership in the White House.

Also, China is exercising more influence in the Asian region and this is a region the US has dominated since the end of WWII.