With the exception of India, the international community has banded together to ask for immediate dialogue to hold credible elections that includes the participation of all political parties. Three separate sources from within the AL’s leadership have collectively divulged the current thinking of the government. If anything, it demonstrates the level of strategic prowess of the Awami League, backed by a superpower.
The government has already informally directed the Supreme Court to find a way to split the current benches so that another bench can be added at the Appellate Division so that all the appeals of those convicted by the International Crimes Tribunal can be completed as soon as possible. Adding a new bench would allow several appeals to be heard and completed at the same time. If another bench is indeed added at the Appellate Division, the executions of the islamist leaders shall start in mid-February and be finished by the end of April.
As it is already known in many quarters, the newly-formed government will intensify the current operation by the security forces to detain/arrest as many leaders and workers of BNP and Jamaat as possible. They will continue this mass arrest program until the government senses the toughening of the stance of the international community in the form of economic or political penalties such as cancelling of GSP and other benefits, trade sanctions and/or limiting the role of Bangladeshi military in the UN, etc.
Around that time (anticipated to be at the end of January), the government will preempt any such moves by the international community by suddenly agreeing to have immediate dialogue with the BNP to hold new elections within 6 months. The government will openly state that it does not wish to stay for 5 years and that it will immediately create a team of representatives to speak to the BNP. Furthermore, the Prime Minister will demonstrate her commitment to the dialogue by openly stating that she is willing to negotiate on all demands of the BNP, including her position as PM. At the same time, India will give open signals to the international community as well as statements to the media that they will encourage and support the AL to have such dialogue towards an inclusive election as soon as possible.
To the hapless public it will be perceived as if the international community’s pressures have finally taken effect on Sheikh Hasina. To the international community it will be perceived as if Delhi has finally yielded to Washington. But in fact it will be the direct opposite.
Delhi will give signals of compromise to Washington and the new AL government will demonstrate unprecedented humility in the name of dialogue only because having such a dialogue will effectively neutralize the entire international community. Having a real dialogue with the BNP every day and also seeming to compromise on several points will immediately take away the international community’s ability to maintain a tough stance against the government. None of the members of the international community can speak of sanctions, stopping of aid, cancelling trade benefits, etc. Simply put, the international community will become absolutely powerless against the illegitimate government because it is credibly demonstrating its will to hold new elections at the earliest possibility. This will be checkmate.
Whilst holding daily meetings of dialogue and compromise, the government will go ahead and execute all the Jamaat leaders, starting mid-February. The government will ensure that the process of negotiations to hold the new elections will be time-consuming but will also show real progress by regularly sitting with the BNP (and other parties) over every detail of the agreement for the new elections. By the time the AL and BNP have agreed on individual members of the interim government, the new Election Commission, the heads of Police, RAB, BGB etc – almost all executions will be completed (approx. early April). It is expected that Khaleda Zia will avoid making an issue of the executions because she will not want to jeopardise the much-wanted serious dialogue that she will fully depend upon. Although this will result in Jamaat effectively severing ties with her for not doing anything to save their leaders, she will believe she can bring them back after coming to an agreement with AL to hold a free, fair election under a neutral interim government. After all, Jamaat will never join AL after the executions anyway.
After the Jamaat executions during the dialogue, it is anticipated that the fallout from the hangings of islamist leaders will result in a series of violent attacks on the government establishment, based upon which the government will suddenly stop the dialogue with the BNP. The government will place the blame of the attacks on Khaleda Zia and the BNP for supporting Jamaat in the violence. This will be the justification for AL’s abrupt pulling out of the dialogue that had so far appeared to be going so well.
Only once the rolling executions of the Jamaat leaders have begun in full swing will the United States and the rest of the international community begin to realise that the whole “dialogue for new elections” is in fact a hoax to keep them occupied and neutralised whilst the main agenda to hang the Jamaat leaders is achieved whilst the Americans and the international community simply watch.
As soon as the Americans (and their allies) realise the above game, it is anticipated that they will have only two options:
(i) They may simply concede defeat to the Indians and agree to depend on Delhi to counter the imminent rise of islamic fundamentalism and/or terrorism in Bangladesh (as a result of “judicial assassinations” of islamist leaders) and thereby relinquish to Delhi absolute leverage over US national security
(ii) They may decide to pursue a state of emergency in Bangladesh in order to retain as much control over Bangladeshi security as possible so that they themselves can counter the possibility of any rise of terrorism or the advent of fundamentalist non-state actors from the region (eg. Pakistan, Afghanistan, etc) – instead of giving up full leverage of their national security to India as they did with Israel in the Middle East.
However, after the Jamaat executions, if Delhi perceives the slightest hint that Washington may be thinking in the line of pursuing a state of emergency (using military elements friendly to Washington), Delhi will give the signal to Sheikh Hasina to declare a state of emergency (using a newly-appointed army chief) before Washington can act. It has been suggested that during the course of the dialogue, the government will transfer (not retire) the current Chief of Army Staff, General Iqbal Karim Bhuiyan. The Prime Minister will replace him with a general who is loyal to her and pre-approved by both Delhi as well as Moscow. Three candidates are already in the running for the post. They are Lt Gen Moinul Islam (CGS), Lt Gen Abu Belal Mohammad Shafiqul Haq (PSO) and Lt Gen Mollah Fazle Akbar (NDC).
The ‘emergency government’ will ensure the continuation of Jamaat hangings; it will create an anti-terrorism tribunal (which will be used to convict many BNP and Jamaat leaders and activists); the ‘emergency government’ will unofficially attempt to convince many BNP leaders to leave the party and join the smaller parties; then it will hold elections using the military apparatus (much in same way as in 2008) whereby Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League will return to power as the single largest party by far. The tenure of the ‘emergency government’ currently remains open because this option is still regarded as a contingency to the primary target of the current government, which is to remain in power for the full 5-year term.
As far as Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League are concerned, the above strategy will allow them to come back with a clean electoral slate, also having avoided the anti-incumbency issue.
As far as India is concerned, the hanging of islamist leaders and the resulting fallout will make them successful in achieving irreversible strategic leverage over the US, the EU and all other global powers susceptible to islamist terrorism. This will also significantly propel Delhi’s leverage in achieving their much-desired goal to be a permanent member of the UN Security Council, including other significant geo-political leverage in the global arena.
The strategically significant executions of islamist leaders in Bangladesh will swiftly propel India as the single-most influential “partner” of the United States. India will not only enjoy a combination of economic and geo-strategic leverage over the United States as they currently enjoy similar to Israel — but thanks to the islamist executions and the resulting rise of militancy – India will possess the same leverage over the handling of Bangladesh that Pakistan has been retaining over the handling of Afghanistan.
That the West’s love (?) for effective and workable democracy is a farce has been clear from their passive and impotent move after the farcical election here in Bangladesh. But we cannot blame them because democracy became rickety since independence and most of our people have been more or less content with an apparent independent and sovereign (?) country where they have been able to do whatever they liked. They hardly understood the value of independence. But in the absence of independence and sovereignty what value does democracy have? It will also be clear very soon when the fortune of this unfortunate country will be dictated by some power beyond the border. Now the veteran freedom fighters like Mr. ASM Rab, Mr, Bagha Siddiqui, Mr. so & so are just watching how this country is gradually but quickly falling into the fathomless deep from which the revival of an independent and sovereign Bangladesh will be a distant blur. God save us!
Yes, “God save us”. I fully agree with Mr.Safi. Only, I wish we had believed and said the same thing on 16 December,1971. Only if we had realised that it was the mercy of Allah(swt) that saved the 75m people of Bangladesh from the tyranny of the Pakistani junta and resulted in our independence, just like Allah(swt) had saved the people of Bani Israel led by Musa (as) from the tyranny of the Feraoon and granted them their freedom.
Our independence was a mercy and blessing from Allah (swt) and NOTHING ELSE and we, as a nation, failed to recognise that and thus failed to thank Him and went about our lives our way without any guidance and help from Him. We were thus subjected to tyrants as our leaders, one after another, till we find ourselves where we are today. The way out? A national TAWBAH and to get back to the way prescribed by our creator ALLAH (swt) – and I certainly don’t mean the way of the Jamaati Islamis of Bangladesh. I also know it’s not easy.
India is not capable of planning and simulating what is happening and what are suspected to happen in Bangladesh. Whatever India and Awami League is doing is most likely planned and simulated by the British intelligence and think tanks around the British Crown globally.
It’s a pity that we are still engrossed and inebriated with the potion the British after they had left us more than three quarters of a century ago. This is our slavish and kowtowed mindset that we love English names tagged with out educational, business and many other institutions. Look how our so-called elites flock round the 3rd/4th and even 5th grade educational institutions! Is this the British to blame? Ridiculous! It’s our failure, the gross, miserable failure to choose our leaders. It’s the gross and callous failure of our leaders whose myopic, incompetent, dishonest and unpatriotic politics has landed us where we are right now. We must have to be cured of the disease of blaming others for all our miseries.
We do not know exactly what is going to happen in Bangladesh in the next few months or years. But looking at the current scenario, we may easily say:
(1) the neo-Baksalite Hasina regime is not going to listen to any popular demand internally and the western powers externally.
(2) It will hang on to power by using all the resources at the disposal of the state (police, BGB, RAB, army, judiciary, administrative organs, ACC, a compliant media, bribery, intimidation, persecution, torture, ‘enforced disappearance’, false flag operations, etc.
(3) The main opposition party BNP has more popular support than AL, and in a fair election it will win handsomely. But AL (and India) will never allow this to happen even if it means resorting to more extreme and fascist methods.
(4) BNP in a sense has failed itself and also the country. It lacks the organisational unity and proper direction to dislodge the AL regime. It has failed to understand the Indian agenda from the very beginning.
(5) Contrary to popular perception, Jamat is not AL’s main enemy because Jamat is not its main challenger to state power (BNP is). But anti-Jamat campaign will continue, the war crimes issue will not be settled any time soon, this will be used as a political tool for as long as possible, probably until Jamat surrenders to AL-India axis – leaving the BNP-led alliance.
(6) Hasina’s AL thinks and acts as the Bangladesh branch of Indian National Congress. It will listen to Indian advice unconditionally even if this means sacrificing vital national interests of Bangladesh. It has allowed infiltration and empowerment of foreign agents in every branch of state machinery. Anybody speaking against the Indian machinations in Bangladesh is immediately (and falsely) branded as ‘pro-Pakistani’ and Razakars and marked for harassment and persecution. In contrast, the members of pro-Indian lobby are encouraged and patronised with media and monetary support and allowed to incite hatred and violence.
(7) The greatest tragedy in Bangladesh politics is that virtually all the major political parties (AL, BNP, Jamat, Jatio Party) depend more on the support of foreign powers (India, USA, EU, Saudi Arabia, etc) rather than on their own people. They utter noble words like liberation war, shadinatar chetona, Islam, justice, democracy, human rights, etc, but their actions are mostly anti-national, anti-democratic, anti-Islam, anti-people and deceptive. Financial corruption and moral degeneration are hall marks of the country’s most leaders. Ershad is just one such example, but there are hundreds of Ershads in political arena. Every body knows that in Bangladesh, politics is the easiest way to huge wealth and power. Concept of public service has become ‘self-service’ cash machine.
(8) Bangladesh is caught in the ‘great game’ of big powers’ geo-strategy fight. ‘Contention and Collusion’ among big powers over a certain issue or territory is an well-established fact. Most Bangladesh politicians do not seem to have any geo-strategic understanding of the challenges and opportunities offered by Bangladesh’s unique location in the eastern side of India as well as in the Bay of Bengal region. Consider Bangladesh, Myanmar, Bay of Bengal together, and you see why the region is so important a strategic prize for India, China and USA.
(9) In 2006-9, India, USA and the EU were more or less united (colluded) in bringing Hasina into power. It served Indian agenda very well. With the necessary majority in the parliament, Hasina ‘re-wrote’ the Constitution in 2010 to suit her own agenda, scrapped the ‘CTG’ system and arranged for her continuation in power by holding an ‘electoral’ farce in December 2013-January 2014. USA and western powers opposed this one-party election excluding BNP and its allied parties, but could not do anything significant. Symptoms of India-US contention in this case, but at least for the time being, India has ‘won’ the game.
(10) What the USA-led western powers would do next remains to be seen, but being bogged down in the old and new wars in the Middle East and North Africa, and in the middle of a financial crisis and uncertainties, it looks highly unlikely that they would go all out for a ‘regime change’ in Bangladesh. So Hasina is there for a time.