A supreme irony has emerged from Pakistan’s hesitant effort to deal with its deadly taliban threat.
Imtiaz gul, who made it clear he regarded the Taliban in pakistan as thugs and criminals (he called some of them “godzillas”), drew an ironic picture during a discussion recently about Pakistan’s counter terrorism operations at the atlantic council’s south asia institute, a think tank in washington dc.
according to gul, an ethnic pathan and former radio journalist who has covered the Taliban and is now executive director of his own think tank, the Center for Research and Security Studies in Islamabad, forcible efforts to eliminate the taliban from its stronghold in the north Waziristan sector of the northwest frontier won’t work any better than american efforts in afghanistan have failed to rout the taliban there.
against any attack, the Pakistan Taliban simply will melt across the border to Afghanistan. that’s the irony, of course. for years, pakistan has been the safe haven for the leadership of the afghan Taliban, which operates openly from quetta in pakistan’s Baluchistan province. now the pakistanis will experience the frustration the americans have felt.
here is what gul said about a push in north Waziristan:
“north waziristan overlooks a greater paktia region in afghanistan. we may have about 100 security posts on our side, and maybe 15,000-30,000 troops on the pakistani border. We don’t have a corresponding strength on the other side. So whatever – even with pakistan launching an operation against the TTP or al-Qaida, the people will simply move away. So it defeats the purpose unless there is a corresponding response from the other side that – the Afghan and the coalition forces.”
you may read the full transcript of gul’s remarks at:
hamid karzai, the afghan president, recognized the problem in condemning an afghan taliban attack at kunar that killed 21 government soldiers in their sleep recently.
he noted the slaughter came shortly after the Pakistani Taliban killed 23 Pakistani frontier corps soldiers it had held as hostages since 2010. the pakistan government claimed the taliban took them to the afghan side of the border and killed them there.
“Terrorism is a big threat to both nations,” said karzai, who has shown little faith in his Pakistani neighbors. he added, however, that the countries should work together against insurgents in border areas, perhaps providing an inkling of support for the sort of cooperation between the countries that has been otherwise totally absent. however, the withdrawal or drawdown of u.s. and other foreign forces by the end of 2014 jis likely to keep the border porous, maybe even more so.
the safe haven effect may be a factor in Pakistan’s continued didling over what to do with it taliban. the prime minister, Nawaz sharif, has swooned between on-and-off negotiations that go nowhere and outright war, the undetermined consequences of which terrify some Pakistanis.
what talks have occurred have been between a taliban team selected by the Taliban from sympathizers who were non-members and a team of low-level government appointees with little authority. all the Taliban seeks is a pakitsan ruled by its version of sharia law, the details of which are virtually unknown. the government seems to want the Taliban to join the constitutional-political process.
out of the think tank discussion came at least one fragment of news that may be considered positive. when a questioner raised the prospect of a military coup, gul said:
“pakistan has moved beyond a coup here. it never happened when the army chief was being grilled publicly in the previous government. and he told us afterwards that that was the worst moment, when all the corps commanders came to me and said, sir, this is going too far….
“that was the best time for the army to strike than ever. probably they didn’t think, neither would they have been able to get it sanctioned by the supreme court. it’s a different pakistan, where you have this 24/7 monster that is called the television.
“then you have the supreme court. however faulty it may be…Pakistan has redefined itself since March 2007. I don’t think any coup maker will get any sanctions on this court, because in the past they’ve been getting approvals….and also there is a grand political consensus against military intervention.
“so we have – these three big factors basically have pushed the military to the wall. While they may be very well entrenched because of their over 60 years of predominance in political economy, they are very much constrained by these three big factors.
“iI’ll be very disappointed if there were ever any coup in that country. It’s not Egypt; it’s not Tunisia, you know….we have been moving incrementally on the democratic front, however faulty, however dysfunctional, partially dysfunctional this country may be, but it’s a different country.”
let’s hope so. luv all, az
Arnold Zeitlin
Visiting Professor
C/O International Office
Guangdong University of Foreign Studies
Guangzhou, China 510 420
Telephone: 86 182 1822 4606
azeitlin@hotmail.com
